From April 1st to April 15th, 2026, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 18333.33 yuan/ton to 16133.33 yuan/ton, a cumulative decrease of 12%. In mid to early April, the overall domestic butadiene market was under pressure and declined, with a weak trading atmosphere and a continuous decline in the market focus. The gradual loosening of cost support and the weak boost of downstream demand have become the core factors driving the market trend. Even if the overall spot supply is tight, it is difficult to hedge the downward pressure brought by weak demand. The industry as a whole presents a game pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with prices falling and adjusting in stages.
Cost wise: In the first half of April, the upstream cost support for butadiene showed a significant weakening. As a byproduct of naphtha cracking to produce ethylene, the price of butadiene is highly correlated with the trends of crude oil and naphtha. At the beginning of the month, due to the impact of the previous Middle East geopolitical conflict, crude oil prices remained high, driving the high cost of naphtha and providing a strong cost base for butadiene prices. But with the easing of the situation in the Middle East, market expectations of tight crude oil supply have gradually cooled down, international crude oil prices have fluctuated downward, and the cost of cracking raw materials has fallen accordingly. At the same time, due to the easing of raw material shortages, the operating load of ethylene plants in Asia has gradually been adjusted, and the cost of cracking by-products of butadiene has followed suit. In addition, the premium transmitted from the high price of crude oil to the butadiene market in the early stage has gradually subsided, and the supporting role of the cost side on the high price of butadiene continues to weaken, becoming an important factor in the downward adjustment of market prices. As of April 14th, the settlement price of the May WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $91.28 per barrel; The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures in June was $94.79 per barrel.
Supply side: In the first half of April, the domestic butadiene market remained tight, but the pace of supply contraction slowed down. Domestically, some of the previous parking facilities have not been fully restored, and some facilities are undergoing maintenance to reduce load. The operating rate of the main domestic production capacity has not reached full capacity, and the increase in butadiene production is limited. In overseas markets, although the facilities in major Asian producing countries such as South Korea and Japan have gradually restarted, the impact of previous supply contraction is still continuing, and the replenishment of imported goods is less than expected, making it difficult for external imported goods to form effective growth in the domestic market. From the inventory perspective, the butadiene inventory in East China ports is still at a historically low level, and the market’s available spot resources are tight. The distribution of goods in some regions is uneven, and traders have insufficient reserves of goods. The willingness to ship at low prices is generally weak, and the overall market supply is still tight.
Demand side: The core factor behind the weakening of the butadiene market in the first half of April was the overall stable and weak downstream demand, which made it difficult to support the high price trend. The core downstream of butadiene is synthetic rubber and ABS resin, among which the synthetic rubber industry has been impacted by the high price of butadiene, resulting in a significant increase in production costs and an expansion of industry losses, forcing companies to reduce operating loads. Downstream tire companies maintain regular production, but the recovery of the terminal automotive market is insufficient, and manufacturers mainly focus on destocking, with low enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials from upstream. The ABS industry has shown stable demand, but it cannot offset the shrinking demand in the rubber industry chain. Overall, downstream enterprises generally adopt a cautious and wait-and-see attitude, often adopting a low price small order replenishment model without centralized replenishment actions, and the demand side continues to drag down the market situation.

Market forecast:
Taking into account the factors of cost, supply, and demand, it is expected that the domestic butadiene market will mainly operate in a narrow range of fluctuations in the second half of April, with limited price fluctuation range and limited room for unilateral fluctuations. The slow recovery of short-term maintenance equipment on the supply side and the shortage of imported goods will provide bottom protection for the market; However, the slow pace of downstream terminal demand recovery and the difficulty in quickly releasing raw material procurement demand will continue to suppress the rebound of the market. In the future, it is important to pay close attention to the fluctuations in international crude oil prices, changes in upstream raw material costs, as well as the dynamics of downstream industries such as synthetic rubber and ABS in terms of production and procurement. Changes in news and spot transactions will also temporarily affect market sentiment, and short-term market trends will continue to operate between supply and demand.