Vadim Yakovlev, the first vice president of Gazprom, said in an internal magazine Thursday that the company expects oil production to grow by 2% in 2019, Reuters reported in Moscow.

Yakovlev said that this forecast means that global oil production will decrease in the first half of this year.

He added that even if OPEC and non-OPEC countries decided to extend the production reduction agreement in the second half of this year, the Russian Natural Gas Industry Corporation would still increase production this year.

According to Dow Jones, a report released Tuesday by the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) predicts that crude oil production in the seven major shale oil producing areas of the United States will increase by 84,000 barrels per day in March to 8,398,000 barrels per day. Crude oil production across the Permian basin in Western Texas and southeastern New Mexico will increase by 43,000 barrels per day, making it the largest shale oil production area.

In order to improve the export system and deepen the reform of “release and control clothing”, in accordance with the provisions of laws, administrative regulations and rules, such as the Foreign Trade Law of the People’s Republic of China, the Regulations of the People’s Republic of China on the Administration of Import and Export of Goods, the Measures for the Administration of Export Commodity Quotas and the Measures for Bidding Export Commodity Quotas, the relevant matters concerning the management of export quotas of goods are

1. Foreign trade operators exporting goods under quota management shall apply to the Ministry of Commerce for export quotas (global or regional quotas) and apply to the Ministry of Commerce for the Export License of the People’s Republic of China (hereinafter referred to as the Export License) by means of quota certificates or quota tender winning certificates. They shall go through customs declaration and inspection and release formalities by means of export licenses.

2. The Ministry of Commerce accepts applications for export quotas of goods for 2019 (excluding quotas allocated through tendering) from November 1 to November 15, 2018. All qualified foreign trade operators may apply to the competent commercial departments or the Ministry of Commerce of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps or the provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government, cities separately listed in the plan in accordance with the regulations. The Ministry of Commerce will allocate these quotas to applicants by December 15, 2018.

3. The qualifications and procedures for applying for export quotas for licorice, licorice products, rush and rush products allocated through tendering shall be announced separately.

4. The administration of export quotas for phosphate ores and silver shall be suspended from January 1, 2019 and adjusted to permit administration. Any qualified foreign trade operator who needs to export phosphorus ore or silver can apply for an export license on the basis of a valid export contract for goods (silver for export under processing trade shall be handled in accordance with the current regulations) and go through the customs declaration, inspection and release formalities on the basis of an export license.

5. From January 1, 2019, the export quota management of artificial cultivation of Ephedra for medicinal materials will be implemented, and the export ban will no longer be implemented. Qualifications and procedures for quota application shall be announced separately.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the domestic TDI market has been running steadily this week, with an average price of 14066.67 yuan per ton this week. Overall, TDI prices were stable this week.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic TDI market was tidied up slightly. Shandong Dongda-Norway Polyurethane Co., Ltd. reported 13700 yuan/ton; Zhangjiagang Bonded Zone Pan-Asian International Trade Co., Ltd. reported 14500 yuan/ton; Nanjing Carbon Green Chemicals Co., Ltd. reported 14000 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The price of nitric acid in the upstream of TDI is stable, the average price at weekend is 1475 yuan/ton, and the average price of toluene at this week’s market is 5137.5 yuan/ton. The quotation is stable. On the whole, the upstream market is running smoothly, the downstream market is underdeveloped, new orders are scarce, and the actions of factories are not obvious, which results in TRADERS’cautious wait-and-see.

3. Future Market Forecast

According to the data analyst of business associations, the TDI market is mainly stable at present. The downstream enterprises are facing the upsurge of returning to the market. The overall demand will be improved. However, in view of the fact that most of the stocks are ready before the festival and the short-term digestion of inventory is the main factor, the market is expected to be consolidated.

Iranian Daily reported on February 14. According to the statistics of National Petrochemical Corporation of Iran (NPC), in the 10 months from March 20, 2018 to January 20, 2019, Iran exported more than 17 million tons of petrochemical products with a total value of 9.73 billion US dollars. During this period, Iran’s total petrochemical production was 44.8 million tons, with an annual capacity of 64 million tons. In the previous Iraqi calendar year, Iranian petrochemical products sold a total of 17 billion US dollars, including 12 billion US dollars in exports and 5 billion US dollars in domestic sales.

Alcoa believes global demand for aluminium may grow at the slowest rate since the global recession in 2009, the latest sign of a global economic slowdown, according to foreign media reports recently.

Alcoa Chief Executive Roy Harvey said in a report to analysts that the company expects global demand for aluminium to grow by 3-4% this year, the lowest growth rate since the global market contracted after the financial crisis.

Aluminum is often seen as a barometer of the health of the global economy because it can be used in various fields such as construction, aerospace and automobile manufacturing.

Harvey promised to respond urgently to these developments in the coming year.

Alcoa’s fourth-quarter results on Wednesday showed that fourth-quarter revenue fell 37% from the same period in 2017, but better than analysts’expectations.

Excluding one-off items such as restructuring costs and non-duplicate taxation, the adjusted net income per share of the company was 66 cents, higher than the average expectation of 62 cents.

The free cash flow excluding capital expenditure in the fourth quarter was $387 million, an increase of 27% over the same period in 2017. Alcoa shares fell 1.3% to $28.60 in after-hours trading.

The slowdown in global demand growth reflects an expectation of 4-4.5% growth in China’s demand, which is significantly lower than the 6.5% growth rate predicted by Alcoa in 2016.

The price of LME aluminium has fallen 16% from its peak in early October last year. Alcoa expects aluminium shipments to decrease from 3.3 million tons in 2018 to 2.8 million tons this year.

Harvey said that the company will focus on “what we can control, continue to improve our operations, respond to challenges flexibly, and seize opportunities in the coming year”.

Alcoa also said in its earnings report that the production gap in the aluminium market will expand to 2.1 million tons this year and 1.7 million tons in 2018. The company also expects the alumina market to shift from oversupply to shortage this year.

In December 2018, rubber prices rose as trade tensions between the United States and China cooled. However, as the world economy is still facing multiple risks, the rubber market is under pressure of falling prices.

Wu Huangying, secretary-general of the Vietnamese Rubber Association, said that although there were still many difficulties, the export volume of natural rubber, rubber products and rubber wood was increasing. He disclosed that the rubber price subsidy will continue to be implemented between now and March 1, when the United States and China withdrew from the tax increase.

Looking ahead to the first half of 2019, the export of Vietnamese rubber to China, the largest market, will also slow down as China’s economic growth slows down. In order to achieve sustainable growth of rubber export, he suggested that Vietnamese enterprises should take the initiative to expand the market and avoid excessive dependence on the Chinese market.

According to the statistics of Vietnam Customs General Administration, in December 2018, Vietnam’s rubber export volume reached 190,000 tons, with an export volume of 230 million US dollars. Its export volume and export volume increased by 5.8% and 2.9% annually, while its export volume increased by 12.7% and its export volume decreased by 5.6% year-on-year.

The PX commodity index was 70.20 on Feb. 13, unchanged from yesterday, down 31.45% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 54.12% from the low of 45.55 points on Feb. 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant has been running steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant has started 50% of its operation. Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant has been restarted. Other plants have been running steadily for the time being. The domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal. The market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On February 13, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 17 US dollars per ton. The closing price is 1074-1076 US dollars per ton FOB in Korea and 1093-1095 US dollars per ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The domestic market price maintains 8800 yuan per ton.

On February 13, the price of WTI crude oil in March rose to 53.90 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.80 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil in April rose to 63.61 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 1.19 U.S. dollars. Crude oil prices rose slightly, which has a certain supporting role for the price of downstream petrochemical products. The price trend of xylene market is temporarily stable. Recently, the textile industry is in a general market, PTA prices rose on the 14th. The average price of offer in East China is raised near 6700-6850 yuan/ton. As of the 13th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 80%, the polyester industry start-up rate is about 77%. In addition, the hobby sales rate is low. The PTA market price is rising. It is expected that the PX market price will maintain 8800 yuan/ton in the later period.

On February 12, the PX commodity index was 70.20, unchanged from yesterday, down 31.45% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 54.12% from the low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant has been running steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant has started 50% of its operation. Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant has been restarted. Other plants have been running steadily for the time being. The domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal. The market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. The closing price of p-xylene market in Asia increased by 3 US dollars/ton on February 12. The closing price is US$109-1092/ton FOB in Korea and US$1112/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The rising price of foreign units has a good support for the domestic market price of p-xylene, and the intra market price maintains 8,800 yuan/ton.

On February 12, the price of WTI crude oil in March rose to 53.10 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.69 U.S. dollars. The price of Brent crude oil in April rose to 62.42 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.91 U.S. dollars. Crude oil price rose slightly, which lost some support for the price of downstream petrochemical products, and the price trend of paraxylene market was temporarily stable. Recently, the textile industry is in a general market, PTA prices rose on the 13th day. The average price of East China is raised near 6700-6850 yuan/ton. As of the 12th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 80%, the polyester industry start-up rate is about 77%. In addition, the hobby sales rate is low, the PTA market price rises, and the PX market price is expected to maintain 8800 yuan/ton in the later period.

Price Trend

In 2018, the price of NBR rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the year, the price was 1,950 yuan/ton, and then continued to rise to 2,296 yuan/ton on October 9. Then it fell all the way to 2,0733 yuan/ton at the end of the year, up 6.32% from the beginning of the year.

Specifically, it can be divided into three stages: the first stage, before and after the Spring Festival of the lunar calendar at the beginning of the year, the start-up rate of manufacturers dropped sharply, the supply side of the market was tight, which promoted the price of NBR to rise to the end of March and the beginning of April. With the recovery of the start-up rate of manufacturers after the Spring Festival, the supply side of the market was loose and the overall price trend slowed down.

The second stage started in July. On the one hand, due to the influence of the Ministry of Commerce on the anti-dumping time of imported NBR, on the other hand, the start-up rate of NBR manufacturers decreased again in July and August, which pushed NBR prices up all the way to mid-October.

In the third stage, in the fourth quarter of 2018, on the one hand, the downstream market demand of NBR was weak, on the other hand, the price of raw material butadiene fell sharply in the fourth quarter, which suppressed the price of NBR. NBR prices have fallen all the way to the end of the year.

II. Market Trend Analysis

Product aspect: In 2018, the domestic NBR start-up rate fluctuates from top to bottom. The NBR start-up rate is relatively low before and after the Lunar New Year and in mid-July and August. Supply pressure pushes up the NBR price at the beginning of the year.

Policy aspects: the first anti-dumping landing of NBR on July 16, 2018, and the final anti-dumping landing of NBR on November 8, 2018. Since November 9, 2018, anti-dumping duties have been levied on imported NBR originating in Korea and Japan.

Raw materials: Butadiene prices fluctuated mainly in 2018, rising in waves in the first three quarters, and declining sharply in the fourth quarter. The price fluctuation of raw material butadiene, to a certain extent, has driven the price fluctuation of NBR from the cost side.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Xu Xiaokun, an analyst at Business Agencies, believes that in 2019, the profit and loss factors of NBR are intertwined. On the one hand, the downward pressure of domestic economy in 2019 is still on the one hand, and the downstream demand of NBR is still on the other hand.