Price Trend

In 2018, the price of NBR rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the year, the price was 1,950 yuan/ton, and then continued to rise to 2,296 yuan/ton on October 9. Then it fell all the way to 2,0733 yuan/ton at the end of the year, up 6.32% from the beginning of the year.

Specifically, it can be divided into three stages: the first stage, before and after the Spring Festival of the lunar calendar at the beginning of the year, the start-up rate of manufacturers dropped sharply, the supply side of the market was tight, which promoted the price of NBR to rise to the end of March and the beginning of April. With the recovery of the start-up rate of manufacturers after the Spring Festival, the supply side of the market was loose and the overall price trend slowed down.

The second stage started in July. On the one hand, due to the influence of the Ministry of Commerce on the anti-dumping time of imported NBR, on the other hand, the start-up rate of NBR manufacturers decreased again in July and August, which pushed NBR prices up all the way to mid-October.

In the third stage, in the fourth quarter of 2018, on the one hand, the downstream market demand of NBR was weak, on the other hand, the price of raw material butadiene fell sharply in the fourth quarter, which suppressed the price of NBR. NBR prices have fallen all the way to the end of the year.

II. Market Trend Analysis

Product aspect: In 2018, the domestic NBR start-up rate fluctuates from top to bottom. The NBR start-up rate is relatively low before and after the Lunar New Year and in mid-July and August. Supply pressure pushes up the NBR price at the beginning of the year.

Policy aspects: the first anti-dumping landing of NBR on July 16, 2018, and the final anti-dumping landing of NBR on November 8, 2018. Since November 9, 2018, anti-dumping duties have been levied on imported NBR originating in Korea and Japan.

Raw materials: Butadiene prices fluctuated mainly in 2018, rising in waves in the first three quarters, and declining sharply in the fourth quarter. The price fluctuation of raw material butadiene, to a certain extent, has driven the price fluctuation of NBR from the cost side.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Xu Xiaokun, an analyst at Business Agencies, believes that in 2019, the profit and loss factors of NBR are intertwined. On the one hand, the downward pressure of domestic economy in 2019 is still on the one hand, and the downstream demand of NBR is still on the other hand.