Alcoa: This year’s growth in demand for aluminium will hit a new 10-year low

Alcoa believes global demand for aluminium may grow at the slowest rate since the global recession in 2009, the latest sign of a global economic slowdown, according to foreign media reports recently.

Alcoa Chief Executive Roy Harvey said in a report to analysts that the company expects global demand for aluminium to grow by 3-4% this year, the lowest growth rate since the global market contracted after the financial crisis.

Aluminum is often seen as a barometer of the health of the global economy because it can be used in various fields such as construction, aerospace and automobile manufacturing.

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Harvey promised to respond urgently to these developments in the coming year.

Alcoa’s fourth-quarter results on Wednesday showed that fourth-quarter revenue fell 37% from the same period in 2017, but better than analysts’expectations.

Excluding one-off items such as restructuring costs and non-duplicate taxation, the adjusted net income per share of the company was 66 cents, higher than the average expectation of 62 cents.

The free cash flow excluding capital expenditure in the fourth quarter was $387 million, an increase of 27% over the same period in 2017. Alcoa shares fell 1.3% to $28.60 in after-hours trading.

The slowdown in global demand growth reflects an expectation of 4-4.5% growth in China’s demand, which is significantly lower than the 6.5% growth rate predicted by Alcoa in 2016.

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The price of LME aluminium has fallen 16% from its peak in early October last year. Alcoa expects aluminium shipments to decrease from 3.3 million tons in 2018 to 2.8 million tons this year.

Harvey said that the company will focus on “what we can control, continue to improve our operations, respond to challenges flexibly, and seize opportunities in the coming year”.

Alcoa also said in its earnings report that the production gap in the aluminium market will expand to 2.1 million tons this year and 1.7 million tons in 2018. The company also expects the alumina market to shift from oversupply to shortage this year.

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