According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from April 13th to 20th, MTBE prices fell from 6740 yuan/ton to 6387 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 5.24% during the period, a month on month drop of 11.49%, and a year-on-year increase of 17.80%. The domestic MTBE market is showing a fluctuating downward trend. The unstable geopolitical situation and the volatile decline in international crude oil have significantly suppressed the domestic gasoline market, resulting in a significant price drop. Industry players are generally bearish on the future, leading to a low willingness to purchase related gasoline components and hindering MTBE manufacturers’ shipments.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International oil prices have fallen, with the main negative factors being the recent signals from the US and Iran to restart peace talks, increased market wait-and-see sentiment, and temporary easing of geopolitical concerns. As of April 17th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the June contract was $90.38 per barrel.
On the demand side and downstream side, international crude oil futures have fluctuated downward, while the refined oil market has continued to decline. Refineries have frequently lowered prices for promotions. However, at this stage, the increase in terminal demand is insufficient, and social inventory digestion is slow. In addition to selling inventory, mid to downstream merchants purchase according to demand, and the market trading atmosphere is flat. The MTBE demand side is affected by bearish factors.
Supply side: Some large manufacturers’ facilities will start construction, and resource supply may increase. The supply of MTBE is affected by favorable factors.
As of the close on April 17th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $20.82/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $923.9-925.9/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $43/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $1043.99-1044.49/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $56.28/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $1146.35-1146.71/ton (323.68-323.78 cents/gallon).
Market forecast: The MTBE market may continue to maintain a flat consolidation trend, with weak gasoline demand leading manufacturers to actively increase volume. The focus of subsequent transactions may further decline, and MTBE analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the MTBE market situation may continue to decline.