According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 12800 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 12833/ton, with a price increase of 0.26%.
Domestic coconut shell activated carbon manufacturers’ prices have risen this week. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-13000 yuan/ton, while the price of columnar coal activated carbon with an iodine value of around 1000 yuan/ton is between 8200-9500 yuan/ton. Coconut shell activated carbon is in high demand in water treatment, air purification, sodium ion batteries and other fields. In addition, the extended shipping cycle, increased storage and environmental protection requirements have pushed up import costs, which is favorable for supporting price increases.
The main coconut producing countries in Southeast Asia have been affected by natural disasters, policy adjustments, and other factors, resulting in a shortage of coconut shell carbonization materials and a rise in coconut shell charcoal prices. Starting from January 2026, coconut shell carbonization materials will be classified as dangerous goods, resulting in a significant increase in transportation, packaging, and storage costs, which are expected to further spread to end product prices.
Prediction: Due to the tight supply of coconut shell activated carbon raw materials and increased costs in China, it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

Price Trends in 2025
According to data from Shengyi Society, the average market price of urea on January 1st was 1798 yuan/ton, and on December 31st it was 1725 yuan/ton. In 2025, the domestic urea market price fell by 4.08% for the whole year. The highest value of urea for the year was 1997 yuan/ton on March 31, and the lowest value for the year was 1570 yuan/ton on October 21.
Market Analysis for 2025
In 2025, the domestic urea market will experience mixed ups and downs, with fluctuations being the main trend.
Phase 1 (January March): Urea market consolidation and rise
The urea market price fell in January. The market supply is loose, and downstream demand is weak. After the Spring Festival, the demand for urea in the domestic market began to increase. The urea market price increased in February and March. During the peak season of spring plowing, there is an increase in agricultural demand and industrial demand, resulting in a positive transaction volume in the urea market.
Phase 2 (April October): Weak and declining urea market
The urea market fluctuated and declined from April to June. The urea market has sufficient supply, but inventory remains high. The demand for spring plowing is gradually slowing down, and downstream procurement is cautious. The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has declined, and the demand for urea procurement has weakened. The price of urea accelerated its decline from July to October. The futures market is not performing well, and the spot market is following the weakening trend of the futures market. The demand for urea in autumn has entered the off-season, and the market trading atmosphere has become lighter.
Phase 3 (November December): The urea market tends to be strong and rise
In November and December, the urea futures market strengthened, and the spot market followed the strong trend of the futures market. The dual positive effects of exports and a new round of label printing have increased market optimism. The daily production of urea remains high, and supply pressure still exists. After the phosphorus composite conference, the demand for winter storage of fertilizers began to advance, downstream raw material procurement demand increased, and the market trading atmosphere improved.
According to the K-bar chart of 2025, it can be seen that the maximum annual increase in urea in 2025 was in February, with an increase of 8.63%. The largest decline of the year was in April, with a decrease of 6.02%.
Market forecast after 2026
supply situation
In 2025, China’s urea production capacity and output reached a new high. The urea production capacity is expected to reach 75.19 million tons by 2025, with an annual increase of 6.6 million tons. The total production is expected to reach 71 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. The increase in production is mainly due to the expansion of production capacity and the improvement of operating rates.
The urea production capacity is expected to reach 88.06 million tons by 2026. The newly added production capacity is mainly concentrated in the field of coal to urea, while gas to urea production is limited by natural gas supply and cost pressures, resulting in insufficient expansion power. The urea production is expected to be around 74.85 million tons in 2026, showing an overall growth trend, and high inventory has become the norm in the urea industry. It is expected that the industry’s average operating rate will remain above 80% by 2026, with a coal to urea operating rate as high as 89.6%. The daily production of urea is expected to exceed 220000-230000 tons during the peak season and spring plowing period, with an estimated daily output of 190000-200000 tons for the whole year.
demand situation
The expected demand for urea in China in 2025 is 65.5 million tons, an increase of about 1 million tons compared to last year.

Agricultural demand: expected to reach 42 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 1 million tons. The expected demand for agricultural fertilizers during the autumn and winter planting period is 13.646 million tons, including 6.57 million tons of nitrogen fertilizers.
Non farm demand: It is expected to reach 23.5 million tons of physical goods, which is basically the same as last year. Among them, the demand for industrial denitrification is steadily expanding, and the process of ultra-low emission transformation in industries such as thermal power, steel, and cement is accelerating, promoting the gradual replacement of liquid ammonia with urea.
The demand for urea in China is expected to be around 66 million tons by 2026. Agriculture remains the main consumer of urea, with an expected demand of 42.5 million tons and a growth rate of 4-5%. Thanks to the expansion of planting areas, the management of saline alkali land, the construction of high standard farmland, and the advantage of urea prices in China. The industrial demand is expected to be 23.5 million tons, with limited growth rate.
Import and export situation
The total import tariff quota for urea in 2025 is 3.3 million tons, with a state-owned trade quota of 2.97 million tons and a non-state-owned trade quota of 330000 tons. From January to November 2025, the total export volume of urea in China reached 4.6163 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 94.38%, setting a new historical high. The total annual output may exceed 5 million tons. In 2025, China’s urea exports will mainly be concentrated in Asia and South America, with Vietnam, India, Chile, and Malaysia being major trading partners. It is expected that the quota system will be lifted for the whole year of 2026, and the export volume is expected to continue to increase. The expected export volume of urea in 2026 is between 5-8 million tons, depending on the degree of relaxation of export policies. The import volume remains low, showing an overall pattern of “increased export volume and stable import”.
futures market
In 2025, the urea futures market as a whole showed a trend of “first suppression and then rise”, with the annual volatility narrowing to 22.45%, indicating significant policy regulation effects. The policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices suppresses market volatility, resulting in a 10.69 percentage point decrease in futures volatility compared to 2024. The urea futures market in 2026 is expected to show a trend of “rising first, then falling, and fluctuating within a certain range”. The main contract price is expected to fluctuate between 1550-1950 yuan/ton.
Summary and Outlook
In 2026, China’s urea market is expected to show a trend of “rising first, then falling, and fluctuating within a certain range”, with prices possibly fluctuating between 1500-2000 yuan/ton throughout the year. Production capacity continues to expand significantly, agricultural demand is steadily increasing, industrial demand is weak, and exports have become a key variable. The adjustment of export policy quotas is the greatest uncertainty, and policy regulation has a suppressive effect on market fluctuations. Overall, market fluctuations are greatly influenced by policies and supply and demand. It is recommended to closely monitor export policies and price trends.

In 2025, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31st, the price of isooctanol was 6916.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 8.99% compared to the price of 7600 yuan/ton on January 1st. The average price of isooctanol in 2025 is 7249.70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26.69% from the average price of 9889.58 yuan/ton in 2024, reaching a new low in nearly five years. Due to factors such as overcapacity in isooctanol enterprises, weak downstream demand, and insufficient cost support, the price of isooctanol will enter a period of deep adjustment in 2025. The price of isooctanol will fluctuate and decline in 2025.
Analysis of the Price Trend of Isooctanol in 2025
Phase 1: High level consolidation of isooctanol prices in January and February. During the New Year and Spring Festival holidays, there will be a slight fluctuation in prices due to restocking after the holiday.
Phase 2: The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell from March to April. During the off-season of demand, the operating rate of isooctanol enterprises has decreased, and coupled with the decline in raw materials, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen.
Phase 3: Isooctanol prices fluctuated and consolidated from May to July. There is overcapacity in isooctanol enterprises, and enterprises such as Luxi Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng are undergoing maintenance. The operating rate of these enterprises is about 80%, and the supply of isooctanol is tight, causing fluctuations and consolidation in isooctanol prices.
Stage 4: The price of isooctanol drops rapidly from August to October. Due to overcapacity in isooctanol enterprises and an increase in production to a maximum of 95%, the price of isooctanol has dropped significantly, reaching a new low since May 2020.
Phase 5: The price of isooctanol rebounded and rose in November and December. The production rate of isooctanol enterprises has dropped to about 70%, and the supply of isooctanol is insufficient, causing the price of isooctanol to rebound and rise.
Supply side: Capacity expansion, reduced operating rate under pressure
In 2025, the total domestic production capacity of isooctanol will be about 3.8 million tons per year, with an additional production capacity of about 500000 tons, mainly from the expansion projects of leading enterprises. The operating rate of isooctanol enterprises fluctuates between 60% and 95% throughout the year, dropping to around 60% in April and rising to 90% from August to October. The overall operating rate is less than 80%, and the overall supply of isooctanol is surplus.
Demand side: downstream weakness, accelerated substitution
More than 90% of the demand for isooctanol comes from the plasticizer industry, with DOP accounting for about 70% and environmentally friendly plasticizers such as DOTP accounting for about 20%. The operating rate of DOP enterprises will fluctuate between 40% and 65% in 2025, and the sluggish real estate market will lead to a decline in demand for PVC products. The procurement of isooctanol will mainly be for essential needs, and inventory will remain low; The tightening of environmental policies has accelerated the replacement of DOP with environmentally friendly plasticizers such as DOTP, resulting in weak demand for isooctanol.
The price of raw material propylene has fluctuated and fallen, while the cost of isooctanol has decreased
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31st, the price of propylene was 5717.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 16.36% compared to the price of 6835.75 yuan/ton on January 1st. The price of propylene has fluctuated and fallen, and the cost of isooctanol has decreased. The cost support is weak, and the downward pressure on isooctanol has increased. In 2025, most of the time isooctanol was in a state of slight profit or loss. In October, the price of isooctanol fell below the cost line and suffered a slight loss. With the rebound of isooctanol prices, profits rebounded in December.
Market Overview and Outlook

According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol products, in the short term, in the first quarter of 2026, the supply of isooctanol will be tight due to a combination of factors such as replenishment of inventory by isooctanol enterprises after the Spring Festival, new production capacity of isooctanol, and a decrease in enterprise operation; The price of propylene has risen, and the cost support of isooctanol has increased. In the first quarter, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose. In the long run, the addition of new production capacity for isooctanol and the accelerated withdrawal of outdated production capacity due to capacity integration may lead to a long-term oversupply of isooctanol. It is expected that the price of isooctanol will consolidate at a low level.

Benzene anhydride market stopped falling and rising
According to the company’s commodity market analysis system, as of January 5, the price of phenylene anhydride was 6,000 yuan / ton, up 8.43% from the price of phenylene anhydride of 5533.33 yuan / ton on December 22. Beginning in late December, the price of phenylene anhydride stopped falling, the price of raw materials phthalate rose sharply, the cost rose, the starting rate of phenylene anhydride enterprises fell, the supply of phenylene anhydride tightened; the downstream DOP enterprises began to decrease slightly, the demand for phenylene anhydride was weakened.
Benzene anhydride costs rise supply tightening
On January 5, China Petrochemical phthalate quote of 6100 yuan / ton, compared to December 20 phthalate price of 5700 yuan / ton increased by 400 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.02%. Phthalate prices rose, phenylene anhydride cost rose. After New Year’s Day, the starting load of phenylene anhydride equipment fell to 65%, the start of construction fell, the production of phenylene anhydride decreased, the supply of phenylene anhydride tightened. Supply tightened plus the cost rose, the increase in the momentum of phenylene anhydride.
Demand side: DOP prices stopped falling
According to the company’s commodity market analysis system, as of January 5, the DOP price of 7367.50 yuan / ton, compared to the December 20 DOP price of 7159.16 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.91%. The plasticizer DOP enterprise startup load dropped slightly to 5.5%, DOP production decreased, phenylene anhydride demand support weakened, phenylene anhydride downward pressure was greater.
Aftermarket Forecast
Business company phenylene anhydride product data analysts believe that in terms of demand, plasticizer enterprises DOP equipment load decreased, plasticizer production decreased, phenylene anhydride demand support weakened; in terms of cost, neighboring diphthalene prices rose, raw material prices rose, phenylene anhydride costs rose. For the future market, phenylene anhydride costs rose, phenylene anhydride supply tightening demand weakened, phenylene anhydride prices are expected to rise strongly in the future market.

Review of Ethylene Glycol Price Trends in 2025
In 2025, the price of ethylene glycol first was strong and then weak
In 2025, the ethylene glycol market presented a pattern of “first strong and then weak, with a low-level rebound at the end of the year”. The ethylene glycol market in 2025 can be roughly divided into three stages: “high volatility at the beginning of the year, unilateral decline from the end of August, and first breaking a new low and then rebounding in December”.
By the end of 2025, the low level of ethylene glycol in ports stopped falling and rebound

The core logic of the price trend of ethylene glycol in 2025 is “dominated by oversupply, driven by cost and demand”. By the end of August, the supply and demand will be relatively balanced, and prices will fluctuate; After the end of August, the combination of increased supply and weak demand resulted in a continuous decline in prices; In December, due to equipment maintenance, cost recovery, and demand replenishment, prices rebounded at a low level, but the long-term pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and the sustainability of the rebound is still uncertain. The reasons for the segmented market trends of ethylene glycol in different stages throughout the year are as follows:
The core logic of the ethylene glycol market from January to August is “supply-demand balance+cost fluctuation driven”. From January to February, prices fluctuated upwards due to cost support and demand replenishment; Prices will decline from March to April due to the low demand season and increased supply; The policy sentiment and equipment maintenance in July and August drove price rebound, but oversupply and weak demand limited the increase, ultimately maintaining range fluctuations.
The core logic of the ethylene glycol market from the end of August to November in the second stage is “dominated by oversupply+driven by cost collapse and weak demand”. From the end of August to mid September, due to the concentrated deployment of new production capacity and a surge in imports, coupled with lower than expected demand during peak seasons, prices rapidly declined; From late September to October, the significant drop in crude oil prices led to cost collapse, coupled with a surge in port inventory, causing prices to continue to decline; In November, due to the continued pattern of oversupply and panic selling of funds, prices approached low levels.
The core logic of the December ethylene glycol market in the third stage is “driven by the resonance of supply contraction, cost rebound, and demand replenishment after all negative factors have been exhausted”. From December 1st to 22nd, due to the pressure of year-end capital inflows from enterprises, coupled with the fact that equipment maintenance has not yet been implemented and weak demand, prices hit a new low since 2021; From December 23rd to 31st, due to the large-scale maintenance of domestic facilities causing supply contraction, coupled with the rebound of crude oil driving cost recovery, the launch of polyester Spring Festival replenishment, and market sentiment recovery, prices rebounded at a low level.
2026 ethylene glycol price forecast

The core logic of the 2026 ethylene glycol market forecast is “continued loose supply+moderate demand growth+cost range oscillation driven, overall showing a pattern of weak first and then stable, with range fluctuations”. From a data perspective, the domestic ethylene glycol production capacity has reached 28.225 million tons by the end of 2024, and it is expected that the excess rate will remain at around 35% in 2026, indicating a continued pattern of loose supply. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday in the first quarter, downstream polyester production is expected to decline to a low of 70% -75% for the year, while BASF’s 800000 ton new plant on the supply side is scheduled to start production at the beginning of the year. Under the imbalance between supply and demand, the pressure on accumulated inventory is expanding, and prices may remain at a low level of 3600-4000 yuan/ton; In the second quarter, with the promotion of downstream resumption of work and production, the marginal improvement of polyester demand, coupled with the planned increase of 5.55 million tons of polyester filament production capacity in 2026 (expected to drive demand for ethylene glycol by 1.8593 million tons per year), is gradually released. At the same time, PTA is in a vacuum period of production and maintenance is concentrated in the second quarter. The tight supply has driven the recovery of the industry chain sentiment, eased the pressure on inventory, and the price is expected to bottom out and rise to 4000-4300 yuan/ton; In the second half of the year, the pace of production capacity deployment on the supply side will slow down, and coal prices are expected to show a trend of initially low and then high. Multiple institutions predict that the average price of Brent crude oil in 2026 will fluctuate in the range of $56-65 per barrel, forming a stage of support on the cost side. The moderate growth of domestic and foreign demand in the terminal textile industry will drive the steady increase in demand for ethylene glycol, and the supply-demand pattern will tend to be balanced. The price is likely to remain fluctuating in the range of $4000-4400 per ton, and it is difficult to see a trend. Key variables such as the pace of new production capacity, fluctuations in crude oil and coal prices, changes in polyester operating rates, and the effectiveness of the industry’s “anti involution” policies need to be given special attention.
Forecast of core driving factors for each quarter of 2026:
Core driving factors for the first quarter (January March): 1 On the supply side, new production capacity will be put into centralized operation (such as BASF’s 800000 ton plant), and the average operating rates of coal to ethylene glycol and oil to ethylene glycol have been increased to medium to high levels of 61.95% and 64.25% respectively by 2025. In the first quarter of 2026, the operating rate of the plants may remain at 60% -65%, with limited supply reduction and continued loose supply pattern. 2. Demand side: The Spring Festival holiday has led to a decline in downstream polyester production to a low of 70% -75% for the year, and the weaving production rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is expected to drop to 55% -60%, resulting in weak demand for ethylene glycol; Historical data shows that the resumption of work after the holiday will last for 3-4 weeks. Although work will gradually resume in March, the expected monthly destocking amount is less than 50000 tons, and the destocking effect is limited. 3. Inventory and sentiment: By the end of 2025, the inventory of ports in East China had reached 680000 tons, and the supply-demand imbalance is expected to add 150000 to 200000 tons of accumulated inventory in the next quarter. The market continues the pessimistic sentiment at the end of 2025, further suppressing prices. 4. Cost side: Coal prices are relatively weak due to the flat seasonal demand after the end of winter heating. In terms of crude oil, institutions predict that the first quarter will be the stage of the most relaxed supply and demand in the oil market, and Brent crude oil may operate in the range of $55-60 per barrel, with weak cost support.

Core driving factors for Q2 (April June): 1 On the demand side, downstream polyester production has resumed comprehensively, and the operating rate has rebounded to a high level of 85% -90%; The terminal textile industry needs to gradually recover both internally and externally, with weaving start-up rates increasing to 70% -75%, driving marginal improvement in demand for ethylene glycol; At the same time, about 30% of the 5.55 million tons of new production capacity planned for polyester filament in 2026 is scheduled to be put into operation in the second quarter, which is expected to drive an increase in demand for ethylene glycol of 550000-600000 tons per year, further boosting demand. 2. Supply side: The pace of new production capacity has slowed down, and BASF’s facilities that were put into operation in the first quarter are gradually entering a stable operation period, with no other large-scale plans for new production capacity; At the same time, in 2025, most of the oil to ethylene glycol production will be in a loss making state, and some high cost units may enter the maintenance cycle due to previous losses. It is expected that the industry’s maintenance capacity in the second quarter will be about 2-2.5 million tons per year, and the supply pressure will be marginally relieved. 3. Industrial chain linkage: PTA is in a vacuum period of production. In the second quarter of Chinese Mainland, 7.2 million tons of PX devices are planned to be overhauled, and PTA devices in eastern China, southern China and other places are scheduled to be overhauled simultaneously. It is expected that the operating rate of PTA industry will drop to 70% -75%. The tight supply of PTA will drive the polyester industry chain to recover, indirectly boosting the demand for ethylene glycol. 4. Inventory side: With improved demand and supply contraction, the pressure of accumulated inventory has eased. It is expected to achieve a destocking of 100000 to 150000 tons in the second quarter and gradually shift towards destocking, which will support prices.
Core driving factors for the third quarter (July September): 1 On the cost side, coal prices have entered an upward phase of “initially low and then high”, driven by the peak electricity consumption in summer and the demand for heating and stocking in autumn, which has provided cost support for coal to ethylene glycol production; Crude oil prices may fluctuate due to geopolitical factors and the pace of global economic recovery. Institutions such as Citigroup predict that Brent crude oil may operate in the range of $60-65 per barrel in the third quarter, leading the cost trend of oil to ethylene glycol. 2. Demand side: The terminal textile industry has entered the seasonal peak season, with moderate growth in domestic and foreign demand. The weaving start-up rate remains at 75% -80%, and the demand for ethylene glycol is steadily increasing; The new downstream production capacity of polyester continues to be released, and it is expected that the proportion of new production capacity of polyester filament in the third quarter will reach 40%, driving an increase in demand for ethylene glycol of 750000 to 800000 tons per year, which is considerable. 3. Supply side: Under high cost, some inefficient coal production units (with production capacity exceeding 4000 yuan/ton accounting for about 15% of the total production capacity) may undergo load reduction/maintenance, with an expected maintenance capacity of about 1.8-2.2 million tons per year. There is an expectation of contraction in the supply side; The import volume is affected by the price difference between domestic and foreign markets. If the domestic price rises above 4200 yuan/ton, the import profit will narrow, and the import volume may show a phased reduction of 5% -8%. 4. Policy aspect: The implementation effect of the industry’s “anti internal competition” policy may gradually become apparent. If measures related to capacity control are introduced, it is expected to affect the total production capacity by 5% -10%, causing certain disturbances to market sentiment and supply side.

Core driving factors for the fourth quarter (October December): 1 On the demand side: The peak season in the textile industry has ended, and demand has entered a seasonal decline phase, with weaving start-up rates dropping to 65% -70%; Polyester enterprises are expected to reduce their demand for ethylene glycol by 80000 to 120000 tons per month in response to the year-end capital recovery, or to lower their operating rates to 80% -85%, reduce raw material stocking, and weaken demand for ethylene glycol. 2. Supply side: The annual production capacity deployment has been basically completed, and the planned new production capacity for 2026 is about 2.8 million tons. It is expected that all production will be completed by the end of the fourth quarter, and the supply pattern will tend to stabilize; In order to achieve the annual production target, enterprises may maintain a high operating rate of 65% -70% for their facilities, resulting in a slight increase in supply pressure. 3. Cost side: Coal prices may fall after fluctuating at a high level, and demand will weaken after the end of autumn heating stocking, with coal prices expected to fall by 5% -10%; There is uncertainty in crude oil prices due to the impact of global economic expectations at the end of the year. Goldman Sachs and other institutions predict that Brent crude oil may fall back to the range of $55-60 per barrel in the fourth quarter, weakening cost support. 4. Inventory and Funds: Under the pressure of fund recovery at the end of the year, traders may lower prices to sell inventory, coupled with weak demand. It is expected that there will be a cumulative inventory of 120000 to 180000 tons in the fourth quarter, which may trigger a temporary accumulation of inventory and suppress prices.

After the center of gravity of ethylene glycol prices shifted downwards in December, it began to stabilize and stop falling
The center of gravity of ethylene glycol prices shifted downwards in December, and recently prices have begun to stabilize and stop falling. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of December 30th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 3864.17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.59% from the average price of 4050 yuan/ton on December 1st.
In terms of port ethylene glycol, the spot contracts for port ethylene glycol (starting from 500 tons) have a weak basis, and the futures contracts have switched from contract 2601 to contract 2605. As of the close, the basis quotes for next week’s contracts (before 1.9) are -137 to -133, and for next week’s contracts (before 1.16) are -125 to -122. The basis quotes for January’s contracts (before 1.25) are -116 to -111, for February’s contracts (before 2.25) are -81 to -75, and for March’s contracts (before 2.25) are -43 to -40.
The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol (loose water, tax included, self pickup) for whole vehicle manufacturers is 3280-3360 yuan/ton.
In terms of external ethylene glycol, as of December 29th, the recent negotiations and transactions for ship to land prices have been around 441-445 US dollars per ton.
Changes in Ethylene Glycol Port Inventory in December 2025:
On December 29, 2024, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 659500 tons, a decrease of 30500 tons compared to the total spot inventory of 690000 tons on December 1; Compared to the total spot inventory of 499000 tons of ethylene glycol at the main port in East China on October 30th, the inventory has increased by 20500 tons.
The port inventory began to accumulate in October, rising from 350000 tons to 750000 tons, and began to decline in mid December.
Analysis of the reasons for the stabilization and rebound of ethylene glycol:
In mid to late December 2025, the price of ethylene glycol will stop falling, stabilize and rebound. The core lies in the resonance of five factors, including strengthened cost support, supply contraction and realization, low valuation attracting funds and emotional repair, combined with the recovery of macro and energy sector sentiment, which will drive the price to rebound at a low level and fluctuate regionally.
1. Cost side: Dual support of crude oil and coal
International oil prices have stopped falling and rebounded due to the favorable geopolitical situation and US economic data, driving up the bottom of the cost of producing ethylene glycol from oil and limiting the room for correction.
Coal prices stopped falling in late December due to the fulfillment of peak season demand and the completion of annual coal mine tasks. The cost support for coal to ethylene glycol production increased, and some loss making facilities entered maintenance or reduced losses.
2. Supply side: internal and external production reduction+import contraction, expected convergence of accumulated inventory
Low profits in China have forced plants to reduce or shut down: Since December, nearly 2-3 million tons of oil production plants have been shut down or shut down, and the domestic maintenance capacity has increased to 3.2 million tons per year (accounting for about 18% of the total capacity), with the operating rate falling back to the range of 61% -65%.
Supply contraction outside the mainland: the 720000 ton plant in Taiwan, China Province of China is planned to be shut down from January, and the monthly import to the mainland will be reduced by 40000 to 50000 tons; Part of Saudi Arabia’s facilities are undergoing maintenance/awaiting restart, and the import volume in January may drop below 60000 tons, easing the marginal pressure on the accumulated inventory.
3. Demand side: The decrease in polyester production is less than expected

The operating rate of polyester remains at a high level of 87% -88%, which stabilizes the demand for ethylene glycol; Although the terminal weaving has weakened, the expected improvement in orders and production margins supports the sustainability of high polyester production. The expected drop in downstream polyester load has fallen short of expectations.
4. Market and Funds: Undervaluation as Bottom Support+Emotional Restoration
After the price of ethylene glycol fell to a low level (briefly below 3600 yuan/ton in mid December), there were expectations of valuation recovery, and industrial buying and bottom fishing funds entered the market.
The overall risk appetite for commodities has rebounded (such as the strengthening of the metal sector), and the general rise in chemical products has driven the resonance of ethylene glycol sentiment.
5. Inventory and Expectations: The pressure has not dissipated but the marginal convergence has occurred
The high level of inventory in the main ports of East China has rebounded, and the rate of accumulated inventory has slowed down under the expectation of supply contraction. The pattern of accumulated inventory in January may slightly converge, and the marginal suppression force will weaken.