Price Trends in 2025
According to data from Shengyi Society, the average market price of urea on January 1st was 1798 yuan/ton, and on December 31st it was 1725 yuan/ton. In 2025, the domestic urea market price fell by 4.08% for the whole year. The highest value of urea for the year was 1997 yuan/ton on March 31, and the lowest value for the year was 1570 yuan/ton on October 21.
Market Analysis for 2025
In 2025, the domestic urea market will experience mixed ups and downs, with fluctuations being the main trend.
Phase 1 (January March): Urea market consolidation and rise
The urea market price fell in January. The market supply is loose, and downstream demand is weak. After the Spring Festival, the demand for urea in the domestic market began to increase. The urea market price increased in February and March. During the peak season of spring plowing, there is an increase in agricultural demand and industrial demand, resulting in a positive transaction volume in the urea market.
Phase 2 (April October): Weak and declining urea market
The urea market fluctuated and declined from April to June. The urea market has sufficient supply, but inventory remains high. The demand for spring plowing is gradually slowing down, and downstream procurement is cautious. The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has declined, and the demand for urea procurement has weakened. The price of urea accelerated its decline from July to October. The futures market is not performing well, and the spot market is following the weakening trend of the futures market. The demand for urea in autumn has entered the off-season, and the market trading atmosphere has become lighter.
Phase 3 (November December): The urea market tends to be strong and rise
In November and December, the urea futures market strengthened, and the spot market followed the strong trend of the futures market. The dual positive effects of exports and a new round of label printing have increased market optimism. The daily production of urea remains high, and supply pressure still exists. After the phosphorus composite conference, the demand for winter storage of fertilizers began to advance, downstream raw material procurement demand increased, and the market trading atmosphere improved.
According to the K-bar chart of 2025, it can be seen that the maximum annual increase in urea in 2025 was in February, with an increase of 8.63%. The largest decline of the year was in April, with a decrease of 6.02%.
Market forecast after 2026
supply situation
In 2025, China’s urea production capacity and output reached a new high. The urea production capacity is expected to reach 75.19 million tons by 2025, with an annual increase of 6.6 million tons. The total production is expected to reach 71 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. The increase in production is mainly due to the expansion of production capacity and the improvement of operating rates.
The urea production capacity is expected to reach 88.06 million tons by 2026. The newly added production capacity is mainly concentrated in the field of coal to urea, while gas to urea production is limited by natural gas supply and cost pressures, resulting in insufficient expansion power. The urea production is expected to be around 74.85 million tons in 2026, showing an overall growth trend, and high inventory has become the norm in the urea industry. It is expected that the industry’s average operating rate will remain above 80% by 2026, with a coal to urea operating rate as high as 89.6%. The daily production of urea is expected to exceed 220000-230000 tons during the peak season and spring plowing period, with an estimated daily output of 190000-200000 tons for the whole year.
demand situation
The expected demand for urea in China in 2025 is 65.5 million tons, an increase of about 1 million tons compared to last year.

Agricultural demand: expected to reach 42 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 1 million tons. The expected demand for agricultural fertilizers during the autumn and winter planting period is 13.646 million tons, including 6.57 million tons of nitrogen fertilizers.
Non farm demand: It is expected to reach 23.5 million tons of physical goods, which is basically the same as last year. Among them, the demand for industrial denitrification is steadily expanding, and the process of ultra-low emission transformation in industries such as thermal power, steel, and cement is accelerating, promoting the gradual replacement of liquid ammonia with urea.
The demand for urea in China is expected to be around 66 million tons by 2026. Agriculture remains the main consumer of urea, with an expected demand of 42.5 million tons and a growth rate of 4-5%. Thanks to the expansion of planting areas, the management of saline alkali land, the construction of high standard farmland, and the advantage of urea prices in China. The industrial demand is expected to be 23.5 million tons, with limited growth rate.
Import and export situation
The total import tariff quota for urea in 2025 is 3.3 million tons, with a state-owned trade quota of 2.97 million tons and a non-state-owned trade quota of 330000 tons. From January to November 2025, the total export volume of urea in China reached 4.6163 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 94.38%, setting a new historical high. The total annual output may exceed 5 million tons. In 2025, China’s urea exports will mainly be concentrated in Asia and South America, with Vietnam, India, Chile, and Malaysia being major trading partners. It is expected that the quota system will be lifted for the whole year of 2026, and the export volume is expected to continue to increase. The expected export volume of urea in 2026 is between 5-8 million tons, depending on the degree of relaxation of export policies. The import volume remains low, showing an overall pattern of “increased export volume and stable import”.
futures market
In 2025, the urea futures market as a whole showed a trend of “first suppression and then rise”, with the annual volatility narrowing to 22.45%, indicating significant policy regulation effects. The policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices suppresses market volatility, resulting in a 10.69 percentage point decrease in futures volatility compared to 2024. The urea futures market in 2026 is expected to show a trend of “rising first, then falling, and fluctuating within a certain range”. The main contract price is expected to fluctuate between 1550-1950 yuan/ton.
Summary and Outlook
In 2026, China’s urea market is expected to show a trend of “rising first, then falling, and fluctuating within a certain range”, with prices possibly fluctuating between 1500-2000 yuan/ton throughout the year. Production capacity continues to expand significantly, agricultural demand is steadily increasing, industrial demand is weak, and exports have become a key variable. The adjustment of export policy quotas is the greatest uncertainty, and policy regulation has a suppressive effect on market fluctuations. Overall, market fluctuations are greatly influenced by policies and supply and demand. It is recommended to closely monitor export policies and price trends.