1、 Price trend

 

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market this week rose strongly. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2097 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, it was 2207 yuan / ton, up 5.24% in the week, 3.88% on a month on month basis, down 3.52% on a year-on-year basis.

 

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2、 Market analysis

 

Product: the methanol market in the mainland is generally higher this week. Under the background of terminal stock before the festival and low factory inventory in the main production area, the trading atmosphere of this week is obviously better. In addition, due to the snow weather, the highway is closed, and the regional trend is prominent, but the overall trend is strong. This week’s methanol port inventory decreased, with a total inventory of 854600 tons in East and South China, down 36300 tons from last week. Due to weather factors, the port closure in Jiangsu province leads to slow unloading and relatively stable cargo preparation and pick-up in the downstream before the festival, which is the main factor for the reduction of social inventory of the port.

 

Industry chain: formaldehyde: this week, the domestic formaldehyde market was partially reorganized and operated. Affected by the continuous increase of methanol market in the upstream, formaldehyde enterprises in some regions raised their offer, and the production cost continued to increase. However, the start-up level in the downstream market was low, the overall demand was weak, and the pressure of formaldehyde enterprises’ shipment and inventory was increased, so the production cost could not be transferred to the downstream market, which led to the start-up of formaldehyde Market in this week being low, and some of them were in a loss state.

 

Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market rose slightly this week. In the early stage, Jiangsu Thorpe, Henan Shunda and Hebei Jiantao acetic acid plants were shut down, the social inventory of the acetic acid market was gradually digested, and the downstream industries started to operate stably. The demand for acetic acid was supported. In the event that Henan Longyu plant failed for a short time and sustained half load state in the later stage, the spot supply of the market was stepped up, and the supplier made an overall offer It rose to some extent, breaking the previous stable trend of acetic acid market. However, the substantial demand in the South China market has weakened, and the supply and demand balance and stable price are mainly maintained in the local area. Due to the weather, the transportation in the northwest is not smooth, and the supplier’s inventory has been accumulated, while the passive stable price is mainly. Near the end of the week, the market recovered stable after a small rise, and the short-term downstream substantial demand was mainly stable. Although the supply of acetic acid market was tight, it could still be supplied, and the market continued to be stable gradually.

 

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Dimethyl ether: the price of dimethyl ether will enter a stable period after a wide rise in the near future. The high price of terminal liquefied gas leads to poor terminal receiving mentality. Even though the price is temporarily stable, the enterprise’s shipment is flat, and the enterprise’s current terminal inventory is above the middle level. In terms of transportation, Shanxi and other places have begun to resume transportation. Due to the increase of market supply, the price of DME is expected to be stable at the beginning of next week.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

From the perspective of business community: on the positive side, the procurement volume of olefins in Northwest China is quite considerable, with stable long-term implementation, and the inventory of most manufacturers in Northwest China is not high; in January, the maintenance of international methanol plant is centralized, and the estimated arrival of imported methanol is about 900000 tons; the social inventory of methanol in port continues to decrease, and the downstream is still expected to be stocked. In terms of bad news, southwest natural gas methanol plant is expected to restart in the middle and late of January; the output of new methanol plant in Northwest will be released; some olefin plants in port, northwest and Shandong will issue the first quarter maintenance plan, such as Yangmei Hengtong, Zhejiang Xingxing, etc.; environmental protection monitoring and the impact of low winter temperature, plate plants in Hebei, Shandong, southwest and other places have been shut down, half a month ahead of the previous year The demand for aldehydes decreased significantly. In terms of the mainland, with the support of MTO raw material outsourcing enterprises in the northwest, the pressure on the overall inventory arrangement of the methanol plant in the northwest is not great before the festival this year, and some enterprises have good pre-sale. However, the progress of goods preparation in the mainland market before the Spring Festival is different, and the next week will be the supplementary stage of goods preparation before the festival. The methanol analyst of the business society predicted that the short-term domestic methanol market is likely to present a regional market. At present, the arrival of imported methanol ships is not concentrated, and the downstream delivery speed is acceptable, and the social inventory will continue to decrease, which is beneficial to the port market trend

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1、 Trend analysis

 
According to the nickel price monitoring of the business association, on January 9, the spot nickel price increased slightly, with the quotation of 114116.67 yuan / ton, 2.72% higher than the previous day, and 23.82% higher than the previous year. Shanghai nickel opened at 109000 yuan, followed by a sharp rise in price, closing at 111540 yuan, or 2.11%. LME3 ended 0.96% higher at $14205 at the end of the month.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

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The basic level of nickel market has not changed much. The early prohibition of mining in Indonesia has changed the supply pattern of nickel market, and the domestic ferronickel production capacity has transferred to Indonesia. The Philippines, New Caledonia and Guatemala will play an alternative role in the import of nickel ore, but they cannot fully meet the demand. The nickel iron plant has fully prepared the ore, the short-term supply is sufficient, and the downstream stainless steel is still weak. Nickel prices rose slightly today, mainly due to the impact of floods in Indonesia on the shipment of nickel ore and the expected impact of a reduction in nickel supply.

 

3、 Future prospects

 

Future forecast: nickel fundamentals have little change, and the flood in Indonesia affects the supply of nickel mine. Near the end of the year, the demand is further weakened, and it is expected that nickel will maintain a volatile trend in the short term.

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On January 8, the PX commodity index was 55.20, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.09% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 21.19% from 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

 

According to statistics, in recent years, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has remained volatile, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun is stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou is stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi has been started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang has been started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant has been overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical has been put into operation, the operation of other plants is stable temporarily, and the domestic p-xylene plant has been installed The market supply of p-xylene is normal and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On January 7, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia dropped by 10 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 820-822 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 840-842 US dollars / ton CFR in China. About 50% of domestic products need to be imported. The decline of external market price has a certain negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, and the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable.

 

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WTI crude oil futures market in the United States recently fell to 62.70 USD / barrel, or 0.57 USD, while Brent crude oil futures fell to 68.27 USD / barrel, or 0.64 USD. U.S. crude oil stocks fell 5.95 million barrels in the week to January 3, a decrease of 4.064 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 7.8 million barrels. However, in the near future, the crude oil export in the Middle East has decreased, and the crude oil price rose sharply on August 8, which has a certain supporting effect on the cost of petrochemical products, while the domestic p-xylene price trend is temporarily stable.

 

In terms of PTA, the price of raw materials in the near future remains at the level of 4900-5000 yuan / ton, the PTA operating rate remains at about 85%, and the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is reduced to around 57%. Weaving enterprises show the phenomenon of reducing the number of orders and lack of stamina. In winter, the turnover of fabrics decreases month by month, while in spring, the order of fabrics is relatively limited. At the same time, near the end of the year, most enterprises are reducing prices to inventory in order to recover funds, and later loading and weaving factories will be shut down for holidays, PTA market price changes little, and the trend of p-xylene price is temporarily stable.

 

Recently, crude oil prices have risen slightly, which has a certain negative impact on the xylene market, but the demand at the downstream of the terminal is general, and business analysts believe that PX market price may remain stable.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business agency, the domestic acetic acid market has been stable in the near future. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2300-2350 yuan / ton; in Shandong is about 2400-2500 yuan / ton; in Hebei is about 2500 yuan / ton; in Shaanxi is about 2150 yuan / ton; in Jiangsu is about 2400-2500 yuan / ton; in Zhejiang is about 2600-2700 yuan / ton; in South China is about 2400-2500 yuan / ton The delivery price is about 2650-2700 yuan / ton.

 

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2、 Cause analysis

 

Product: in the near future, due to the influence of rain and snow in the northern region, the transportation is limited, which makes it difficult for enterprises to ship goods. However, due to the low inventory of enterprises in the early stage, the overall inventory pressure of the market will not increase significantly in the short term, and the market is generally in a state of production and sales balance.

 

Industry chain: in the upstream, the methanol market has stopped falling and rebounded, and the price continues to rise. At present, it is about 2110 yuan / ton; the domestic acetate, vinyl acetate and acetic anhydride industries are stable and soft, the terminal market demand is poor, and the enterprise’s shipping intention is high, but the transaction is light; PTA spot market continues to rise, at present, it is about 5022 yuan / ton.

 

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International: this week, the international acetic acid market is mainly stable, among which the price of acetic acid in North America is about 615 US dollars / ton; that in Asia is about 310-355 US dollars / ton; that in Europe is about 650 euros / ton.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to the acetic acid analyst of business association, due to the continuous high price of raw material methanol and the general low inventory of enterprises, the enterprises intend to push up in the near future, but near the Spring Festival and the logistics and transportation are not smooth, so the market mentality is cautious and mainly wait-and-see. It is expected that the acetic acid market will maintain stability in a short period of time.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the market price of DAP kept stable this week. At the beginning of the week, the average ex factory price of 64% of DAP in China was 2200 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price at the end of the week was 2200 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with that of last week.

 

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2、 Market analysis

 

Products: at present, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Hubei Province is quoted at 2200-2300 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Shandong Province is quoted at 2200-2400 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province is quoted at 2250-2450 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Anhui Province is quoted at 2200-2400 yuan / ton, and 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Northwest China is quoted at 2200-2400 yuan / ton.

 

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Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, the domestic phosphorus ore market is mainly stable, with small fluctuations in some areas. This week, the market price of sulfur remained stable with little fluctuation. The domestic liquid ammonia market is stable.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to analysts of DAP in business association, it is now the off-season of DAP, with less demand and low price. It is expected that the price of DAP will be mainly consolidated in the later period.

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1、 Price trend

 

The domestic toluene market was stable and volatile this week, down about 0.23% as of Friday, according to the data in the business club’s bulk list.

 

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2、 Analysis and comment

 

1. Product: compared with last week, the market trend of this week is stable. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 5500-5550 yuan / ton. According to the feedback from traders, last week’s trading volume was average, and port inventory rose, about 26000 tons.

 

2. Industrial chain:

 

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, this week’s oil prices generally showed a volatile downward trend. As of Friday, spot Brent fell 4.72%, Brent futures fell 3.46%, WTI futures fell 0.94%, and Dubai futures fell 3.30%.

 

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In the downstream, in the TDI market, the trend of domestic TDI market this week is stable and the transaction is light. The quotation of domestic goods with bills is about 11200 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with bills is about 11400 yuan / ton. It is expected that the TDI market will maintain a weak shock in the later period. In terms of PX market, the domestic market price has increased. At present, it is about 6900 yuan / ton, and the external price is about 814-816 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 834-836 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PX market price will maintain 6900 yuan / ton next week.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Toluene analyst of business and chemical branch said: next week, we will continue to focus on market turnover, port inventory and crude oil trend. Overall, toluene market is expected to continue to fluctuate next week.

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According to statistics, the price trend of phthalic anhydride in China is stable temporarily. As of January 2, the price of phthalic anhydride from o-phthalic acid process is 6300 yuan / ton, and the market price trend of o-phthalic anhydride is stable in the near future. On January 2, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 61.31, unchanged from yesterday, 48.96% lower than 120.13 (2012-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and 26.62% higher than 48.42, the lowest point on January 21, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

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In the near future, the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market is temporarily stable, the price of phthalic anhydride market in East China is temporarily stable, the downstream factories maintain rigid purchase, the factory inventory pressure still exists, the high-end transaction is blocked, in the near future, the spot supply of manufacturers is normal, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market is temporarily stable. In East China, the main flow of negotiation of neighboring method source is 6200-6500 yuan / ton, that of naphthalene method source is 6100-6200 yuan / ton; in North China, the main flow of quotation of phthalic anhydride market is 6200-6400 yuan / ton, most of the manufacturers in the field are mainly stable, the downstream construction is not high, the purchase is mainly on demand, the wait-and-see mentality is strong, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable, and the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the field has little change The price trend of phthalic anhydride is stable temporarily.

 

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In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 6200 yuan / ton. Due to the high unit operating rate of some domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers, the normal supply of goods within the site, the import phthalic acid Market in the port area remains at a low level. In the near future, the phthalic acid Market in the port is stable, the port inventory is low, and the external price of phthalic acid is temporarily stable. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, and the details are discussed in detail Benzene price stability influence, phthalic anhydride market price trend temporarily stable.

 

The price of phthalic anhydride, isooctanol, DOP raw materials, DOP enterprises and DOP suppliers in the downstream are stable and stable. The price of DOP fluctuated and remained stable, the downstream demand of DOP was poor, the customer’s purchasing enthusiasm was poor, the downstream PVC price fluctuated and fell, and the PVC industry was off-season. The mainstream quotation of DOP market is about 7350-7600 yuan / ton, and the rising power of DOP in the future market is general, but the price of ox in the upstream is low and fluctuates, and the demand of plasticizer industry is not changed much. The phthalic anhydride analysts of the business society expect that the market price of phthalic anhydride in the later period will be stable temporarily.

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Price trend of magnesium ingot in 2019

 

In 2019, the market of magnesium ingot is weak, and the market price is greatly reduced. According to the data of business agency, as of December 31, the average market price of magnesium ingot (9990) was 14166.67 yuan / ton, down 16.83% from the average price of 17033.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (01.01).

 

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The market trend of magnesium ingots in 2019 is roughly divided into two stages. From the beginning of the year to the end of May, the price of magnesium ingots fluctuates at a high level within the range of 16600-17500 yuan / ton; from the beginning of June to the first ten days of July, the price of magnesium ingots is monotonous downward, and the market is weak; from the middle of July to the last ten days of August, the price of magnesium ingots fluctuates. Since the beginning of September, the price of magnesium ingots has entered a downward range again. In the last ten days of December, the price of magnesium ingots has risen slightly.

 

The monthly average price of domestic magnesium ingot Market from January to December 2019 is as follows (yuan / ton):

 

Month up and down (%) amplitude (%) lowest price (date) highest price (date)

1 -0.49 4.85 16400(01.09) 17225(01.23)

2 0.15 1.18 16875(02.12) 17075(02.18)

3 0.74 3.24 17000(03.01) 17550(03.15)

4 -0.73 0.73 17025(04.09) 17150(04.01)

5 -1.13 1.13 16833.33(05.31) 17025(05.01)

6 -6.14 6.34 15766.67(06.26) 16833.33(06.01)

7 -1.69 3.38 15433.33(07.09) 15966.67(07.19)

8 0.86 2.32 15000(08.01) 15866.67(08.15)

9 -3.84 3.84 15033.33(09.30) 15633.330(09.01)

10 -2.55 2.99 14583.33(10.28) 15033.33(10.01)

11 -3.75 3.97 14100(11.30) 14666.67(11.04)

12 0.47 1.89 13900(12.20) 14166.67(12.30)

2014.66 23.01 14975.00 (01.11) 18420.00 (11.29)

© December 2019 Business Club

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Production recovery supply and demand advantage no longer exists in 2018

 

According to the data of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, from January to October, China’s Communist original magnesium output was 747700 tons, and the output in the same period of 2018 was 570200 tons, up 21.7% year on year. Among them, the cumulative production in Shaanxi is 421000 tons, up 18.9% year on year; the cumulative production in Shanxi is 99100 tons, up 23.27% year on year; the cumulative production in Ningxia is 41900 tons, down 30.06% year on year.

 
Meanwhile, the data of the same period in 2018 shows that the main production areas have significantly reduced their production compared with that in 2017, among which Ningxia has halved year-on-year production, Shanxi has decreased 33.77% year-on-year, and the total domestic production has decreased 22.38% year-on-year.

 
Although the export volume increases, the domestic net increase stock is larger

 

According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, from January to October, China exported 376000 tons of various magnesium products, a year-on-year increase of 16.08% and a cumulative amount of 967 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%.

 

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Among them, the export of magnesium ingots totaled 201600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 23.53%; the export of magnesium alloys totaled 91900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%; the export of magnesium powder totaled 71200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.84%.

 

From January to October 2018, China exported 323900 tons of various magnesium products, a year-on-year decrease of 15.4% and a cumulative amount of $805 million, a year-on-year decrease of 9.33%. Among them, the total export of magnesium ingot is 163200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20.22%; the total export of magnesium alloy is 8800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.94%; the total export of magnesium powder is 63100 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.99%.

 

From January to October 2019, the increase in domestic production was 371700 tons, the increase in export was 52100 tons, and the net increase in domestic stock was 319600 tons.

 

Future prospects in 2020

 

The price of magnesium has fallen to the cost line of the factory. Recently, the price of magnesium ingot has bottomed out and rebounded. The trading volume has increased and the market has slightly changed. Looking forward to 2020, with the improvement of downstream demand and the release of domestic mainstream manufacturers’ inventory, magnesium price is expected to return to 14500-15000 yuan / ton shock operation.

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On December 30, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 121.05, the same as yesterday, a record high in the cycle, 56.46% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

 

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In December, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market remained at a high level, the domestic ammonium nitrate plant started normal operation, the supply of goods in the near future was normal, and the domestic price trend remained at a high level. In the near future, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has improved, and the downstream purchase is on demand. In the near future, the trend of downstream nitro compound fertilizer is normal. The domestic downstream civil explosive industry still stops production more, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have limited start-up, and the market price of ammonium nitrate remains high. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2300-2500 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 2400-2600 yuan / ton.

 

In December, the price of concentrated nitric acid in China fell slightly, down 1.02%. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 1600 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 1600 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai offers 1800 yuan / ton. Anhui Aodeli offers 1650 yuan / ton; Wenshui County synthetic chemical offers 1650 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic maintenance devices have been restarted continuously, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market has increased, and the situation of goods in the field is general. The price of ammonium nitrate Market in December is stable due to negative factors, and the price of raw material nitric acid has declined, which is a negative impact on the market of ammonium nitrate.

 

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The liquid ammonia Market in the upstream fell in December, with a drop of 3.01% in December. The market of liquid ammonia in China is slightly lower, with a slight decline in the northern region. Most of the manufacturers reported stable prices. Some of them went down 50-100 yuan / ton. Some enterprises in Shandong Province, the main production area, continuously lowered prices. Prices in the northwest region remained stable. At present, there is a surplus of local ammonia. In particular, some manufacturers in Shandong Province have loose supply, and the pressure of enterprise shipment is increasing. However, the manufacturers with a large amount of ammonia are mainly stable The main quotation is 2850-2950 yuan / ton. In North China, the liquid ammonia is also slightly lower. The lack of demand leads to the current ammonia storage and price decline. The shipment pressure increases significantly. There are many downstream stoppages. The main quotation in North China is 2800 yuan / ton up and down. The increasing pressure of environmental protection in Hebei Province has led to the majority of enterprises limiting production. The shutdown of large downstream enterprises such as China and Afghanistan has led to the weak demand in the downstream, the accumulation of enterprises and no significant change in prices. The mainstream quotation in Hebei is 2770-2850 yuan / ton, and the overall trend of liquid ammonia is still not optimistic. The overall trend of the upstream liquid ammonia Market declined, while the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market was temporarily stable.

 

In the near future, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is general, and the market demand for ammonium nitrate is normal, but the market price of raw materials falls, and the market price of ammonium nitrate loses cost support. Ammonium nitrate analysts of the business association believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may maintain high volatility in the later period.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the asphalt market price remained stable in December, and the asphalt price was reported as 3374 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 0.48% from 3358 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

 

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2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

Product: in December, although the international crude oil price rose sharply, the overall demand of asphalt market was not good, and the rise of asphalt price was blocked.

 

Industry chain: in December, China US trade relations continued to develop well, and market sentiment continued to develop well; moreover, OPEC’s decision to deepen the production reduction agreement further pushed up the international crude oil price. Meanwhile, the crude oil market in December was less bearish, with WTI crude oil market price rising 11.37% in December.

 

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In terms of asphalt Market: the weather turns cold, and the demand for asphalt terminal is poor. In December, the demand in Northeast, Shandong and North China basically stops, and there is still a small amount of demand for ending in refineries, converting to production, or selling to other places, and in East and South China. According to the latest data from the Bureau of statistics, the production of petroleum asphalt from January to November 2019 was 36.907 million tons, up 21.4% year on year. Oversupply is the main reason for the sluggish price performance of the asphalt Market in 2019. Moreover, the off-season characteristics of asphalt in December are obvious, so the price of asphalt market is weak.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst with business club, believes that although the international crude oil price has risen, the new year’s Spring Festival holiday will come and the road construction will be basically stopped. The demand of domestic asphalt market will continue to shrink in January, and the asphalt price is expected to fall steadily in December.

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