1、 Price trend

The domestic BDO market is mainly stable. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of February 11, the average price of the domestic BDO market was 9876 yuan / ton, up 0.82% month on month, up 2.88% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: domestic BDO market is stable. With the decrease of the load of Dongyuan, Shanhua and Meike, the overall start-up decreased compared with that before the festival. However, due to the inventory of each factory, the supply is abundant in the short term. While the main downstream load is low, the rest of the downstream resume work progress is slow, and the digestion capacity is limited. At the same time, transportation is still the biggest resistance in the current market, and some downstream factories stop because of the shortage of raw materials. Many manufacturers have no new price to offer, lest the goods cannot be delivered. The operators dare not make a sales plan, and continue to pay attention to the downstream resumption of work and the acceptance of the price.

In terms of market, BDO market in South China is running smoothly. Main downstream low-level operation, limited consumption, and more inventory. At present, transportation is the biggest resistance. Most manufacturers say that they have sporadic inquiries, but there is no real negotiation, and the focus is stable. BDO market in East China maintains stable operation. Affected by the transportation, especially the automobile transportation, some main downstream factories are short of raw materials, so the start-up is limited. Most manufacturers pay attention to the transportation and downstream construction conditions, and carefully wait and see the market. There is no new single delivery.

Industry chain: in terms of raw materials, methanol and domestic methanol market fell, with few trading volume. Due to the fact that most of the cross regional delivery vehicles have not recovered, the sales pressure of methanol enterprises in Inner Mongolia is prominent. Today, some enterprises leave the factory at 1500 yuan / ton; the main quotation in Guanzhong area is temporarily maintained at 1700 yuan / ton ex factory spot exchange, but the transaction is rare; some new prices in Northern Shaanxi area reach 1630 yuan / ton, and there is no transaction due to the limited logistics.

Calcium carbide: the domestic calcium carbide production enterprises are stable and active, and the start-up is slightly increased, but the overall low level. At present, the freight from Shaanxi to Inner Mongolia of Lancan has increased by 60 yuan / ton, but the overall arrival of Lancan has increased. In the lower reaches of North China, there are still obvious deficiencies. In Henan, there is a planned increase of 100 yuan / ton, increasing the market wait-and-see.

3、 Future forecast

Generally speaking, the current transportation is limited and the downstream construction is at a low level, while the on-site supply of goods is abundant, and the contradiction between supply and demand continues. The upstream and downstream pay close attention to each other’s start-up. BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will continue to operate smoothly in the short term, and it is difficult to have large fluctuations in the short term. They focus on upstream and downstream start-up and transportation.

1、 Price trend

The ex factory price of glycol fell this week, according to data from the business agency. On February 7, the average ex factory price of oil to glycol in North China was 4816 yuan / ton, down 6.47% compared with that before the festival.

Before the festival, the price of large single can of ethylene glycol in East China was 5110 yuan / ton, and this Friday’s price was 4385 yuan / ton, down 725 yuan / ton, down 14.19%.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of February 7, the total operating rate of domestic glycol was 70.38%, down 0.77% compared with that before the festival.

In terms of equipment, the ethylene glycol unit in Luoyang of Yongjin has been restarted and the load has been increased to 70-80%; the restart time of the unit in Xinxiang of Yongjin has been postponed; the ethylene glycol production enterprises under Yangmei group have reduced the load to varying degrees. In addition, the ethylene glycol units of Hengli petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical are in operation and will produce ethylene glycol in volume in the near future.

As of February 6, the ethylene glycol inventory in the main reservoir area of East China was about 598000 tons, an increase of 26500 tons or 4.61% compared with Monday.

In the downstream, the polyester operation rate was 61.10%, 10.14% lower than that before the festival.

3、 Analysis and prediction

During the Spring Festival, the arrival of glycol at the port was less than expected, but the inventory increased due to the poor downstream digestion. In addition, due to the decline in crude oil prices, polyester and loom start-up delay, glycol prices have declined significantly. In the later period, the crude oil price was increased, and the spot price of glycol recovered. In the short term, with the resumption of work further delaying the emergence of risk, glycol price is not optimistic.

According to business analysts, in order to protect against the new coronavirus infection of pneumonia, the demand for masks has surged in recent years, and the supply of masks is in short supply in many places in China. With the emergency production of mask enterprises, the demand for non-woven fabric and other parts is also increasing. Because PP high melting fiber is the best choice for non-woven fabric, PP, as the basic raw material for non-woven fabric production, also has a demand gap. The market and supply and demand of PVC, the main material of medical plastics in the market, and polyethylene PE, the packaging material, are also concerned by the industry and the whole society.

Concentrated demand for high melting fiber polypropylene

The downstream demand of polypropylene mainly includes drawing, injection molding, film, fiber and pipe, accounting for 31%, 29%, 20%, 10% and 7% of the downstream demand respectively. The overall demand growth of downstream application of polypropylene is basically in pace with the global economic growth. In the past five years, the domestic demand growth of polypropylene is 8.94%, 16.47%, 5.92%, 2.87% and 9.14%, with an average growth rate of 8.67%. At present, the main demand of medical mask is PP, which is used to spray and melt non-woven fabric. This material can also be used to produce surgical clothing, isolation clothing, infusion bottles and syringes for infusion and injection, etc. In response to the heavy task of prevention and control and the demand gap of polypropylene, many petrochemical enterprises urgently restart the production line during the Spring Festival holiday, with full production capacity and overtime to alleviate the shortage of medical materials such as medical masks and high prices.

Special plastics for emergency production increase in petrochemical enterprises

LV Dapeng, director of Sinopec information office, promised on behalf of the company that during the anti epidemic period, the price of relevant raw materials for medical and health supplies produced by Sinopec would not increase; and the production capacity would continue to be adjusted, and the raw materials for medical and health supplies would be prioritized to ensure high-quality, sufficient and timely supply. Since the outbreak, 17 Sinopec companies have produced 65000 tons of medical and health resin raw materials, an increase of 12000 tons compared with the original plan, meeting the production needs of 51 domestic medical and health material customers, such as Shandong Dongwei University. It will produce 95000 tons in February, 30000 tons more than in January. It will give full play to the advantages of chemical sales network channels, timely meet the needs of downstream customers, help the surrounding medical and health material manufacturers to resume production in advance, ensure the supply of raw materials, and vigorously alleviate the shortage of medical and health materials caused by the soaring demand.

As the main manufacturer of PP melt blown special materials for respirator cloth in China, dawn Co., Ltd. also worked overtime during the Spring Festival to schedule production plan in time, start full horsepower and full line production, so as to guarantee the demand of respirator cloth materials as much as possible. Dalian Petrochemical, a subsidiary of CNPC, also said that the company would steadily open three full-scale units to fully guarantee the full load production of high-end medical non-woven raw material h39s-3 polypropylene products. From the beginning of 2020 to January 21, Dalian Petrochemical Company produced 11700 tons of h39s-3 products, an increase of nearly 18% year on year. On January 22, more than 600 tons of h39s-3 products were delivered from Dalian Petrochemical Company to Foshan medical non-woven fabric manufacturer in Guangdong Province.

Polypropylene overall supply sufficient price temporarily stable

In the face of such demand, the relevant head of Hengli, a private petrochemical group, said that in 2019, the price of polypropylene for masks was about 8000 yuan / ton, but now it is down to 7000 yuan / ton, “polypropylene has not been in short supply, which has driven up the price”, and the prices are basically stable. As of February 3, the main offer price of T30S, the domestic producer and trader of PP monitored by the business association, was about 7483.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.44% compared with the initial standard level of the month. Most of PP for other applications are also subject to varying degrees of adjustment and reduction. In addition, due to the commitment of no increase in production and price of petrochemical plants, we can see that in the near future, the price of PP, including melt blown PP, as the raw material of non-woven fabric, may maintain stable and sufficient supply. However, the price of non-woven fabrics in the lower reaches has increased, which is attributed to the increase of freight and labor costs. Due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday and epidemic prevention work, some enterprises delayed the start of construction and reduced the number of workers. The decrease of drivers and transport vehicles in logistics and transportation enterprises, as well as the prohibition of high-speed traffic in some areas, make it difficult to find a single logistics vehicle in the near future and make cross provincial transportation more difficult.

Limited impact on other related rubber and plastic Market

The price of PVC, one of the main materials of medical plastics, has no obvious change during this period. In addition, during the Spring Festival holiday and the prevention and control work, the transportation of PVC also caused obstacles in warehousing and transportation, resulting in some objective difficulties in the source transportation and supply of PVC manufacturers. It is expected that the inventory will be increased before and after the Lantern Festival.

As a kind of packaging material commonly used in plastic bags and composite bags, polyethylene PE is not out of stock temporarily in this prevention and control work. The price was not significantly affected by this event. According to the data of PE drawing grade materials monitored by the business association, the three major varieties of polyethylene, LLDPE, LDPE and HDPE, all showed a stable trend during the Spring Festival. However, due to the impact of holidays, petrochemical inventory will increase significantly, and import goods will also be concentrated in Hong Kong, and the market supply will increase significantly after the festival. The contradiction between supply and demand in the market will intensify again, and the price may have a downward trend.

In addition, the General Administration of Customs released information on the import of medical materials on January 31. From January 24 to 30, China imported 16139 batches of prevention and control materials, 59.178 million pieces, worth 290 million yuan. Among them, there are 56.228 million masks.

Market Overview:

According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business agency, in January, the dichloromethane market in Shandong Province as a whole first suppressed and then rose. The average price at the beginning of the month was about 2600 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was about 2570 yuan / ton, down 1.15% in the month, and the lowest price in the month was about 2480 yuan / ton.

Market analysis:

Product: after winter, it is in the traditional off-season of dichloromethane market, and the overall market starts smoothly. However, the downstream demand is flat, and the price support for dichloromethane is insufficient. Near the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream market and traders intend to prepare goods, so the market price is slightly increased, and the overall transaction situation is still slightly flat. At present, the quotation in Shandong is about 2570 yuan / ton; in East China is about 2700-2800 yuan / ton; in Jiangxi, Liwen is about 3150 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the upstream, the natural gas market fell by 17.71% in the month, and at present, it is about 3090 yuan / ton; the methanol market is in shock and consolidation, and the pre festival market transaction is stagnant, at present, it is about 2242 yuan / ton; the liquid chlorine Market is stable and in shock, and the supply of the liquid chlorine market is tight, and the firm price mentality of the enterprise is strong, and the transaction is flat, at present, it is about 300-500 yuan / ton. In the downstream, the domestic refrigerant market is in weak and stable operation, and the market is basically closed before the festival, so there is little room for price adjustment; the pharmaceutical and agricultural market and solvent industry just need to be flat, and the price of dichloromethane is generally supported.

Future forecast:

According to the data analyst of methane chloride of business association, with the development of the new crown virus epidemic, the Spring Festival holiday has been extended compared with previous years, the market starts have slowed down, the logistics and transportation vehicles in various regions are limited, and the market trading is weak. It is expected that the market will be shaken and sorted out in a short time.

1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of ethylene in the external market has been on the rise recently. The average price of ethylene on the 21st was 842.50 US dollars / ton, 1.84% higher than that on the 17th, 827.25 US dollars / ton. The current price is 7.01% lower than that of last year.

2、 Market analysis:

Product: ethylene is on the rise this week. Prices in the Asian ethylene market rose, with CFR Northeast Asia closing at $832-840 per ton and CFR Southeast Asia closing at $712-720 per ton by the end of the week. The price of European ethylene market rose slightly. As of the end of the week, the price of European ethylene market was FD, northwest Europe closed at US $949-962 / ton, and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $858-866 / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. rose first and then fell. As of the end of the week, the price was US $451-463 / ton. Overall: in recent years, the European and American ethylene market overall rose, and the overall ethylene market rose. The industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival.

Industry chain: International: on January 20, the New York Mercantile Exchange closed, and Brent crude oil futures rose to $65.20/barrel, up $0.35 or 0.5% from the previous trading day. According to the news, Libya’s two largest oil fields were closed due to the military blockade, and the continuous rise of crude oil played a supporting role in the price of ethylene. In the later stage, it was good to support the rise of ethylene price, and the external market of ethylene rose this week. The price of styrene in the lower reaches was concussive and consolidated, and the price of ethanol remained stable, which supported the price of ethylene.

3、 Future forecast:

According to ethylene analysts of business Chemical Branch, the recent force majeure in Libya’s key crude oil production may affect the pricing of Mediterranean light and low sulfur crude oil, so analysts of business data expect that ethylene prices will keep a narrow range of shocks in the future, not excluding the possibility of rising.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, on January 1, 2020, the average ex factory sample price of 85% formic acid purified water was 1950 yuan / ton. As of January 20, the average sample price did not increase, except for a small number of dealers.

2、 Market analysis products: this month, the domestic industrial grade formic acid market as a whole shows a stable trend. Although the dealer price has been slightly reduced in the month, the price is still at a high level. At the beginning of January, during the Spring Festival, enterprises have generally entered the Spring Festival holiday, and there is no significant fluctuation in market price adjustment. In the second week of January, the price of enterprises did not rise. Most of the prices of enterprises continued years ago, and the formic acid market was dominated by wait-and-see. Near the end of January, the market tends to be weak and stable. Enterprises in the market have stocks, and the prices of manufacturers and enterprises are generally 1950 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the price of domestic liquid ammonia for the upstream products of formic acid did not fluctuate greatly in January, and some units were shut down for maintenance near the Spring Festival. The market supply is sufficient, but the price of transportation price will increase a little. Since January, the upstream caustic soda has continued to maintain stable operation as a whole, except for the partial price fluctuation of some manufacturers. The downstream pesticide, printing and dyeing and other industries received goods well, The upstream raw materials support the formic acid market.

3、 According to the formic acid analysts of Houshi prediction business agency, the domestic formic acid market is generally stable at present, but the price has basically no fluctuation since January. The upstream raw materials support is acceptable, the supply of formic acid market is sufficient, the downstream production capacity is acceptable, and the price is enough to support the supply of years ago.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the zinc price rose first and then fell after the new year’s day, and the overall zinc price rose in shock. As of January 19, the spot price of zinc was 18063.33 yuan / ton, up by 1.36% compared with 18353.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1), and down by 14.19% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market trend analysis

Domestic zinc Market

After the new year’s day, zinc market is mainly divided into two stages. From January 1 to January 8, zinc price rises sharply. Affected by the stock up of Spring Festival, zinc market has a short-term demand rise and zinc price rises sharply. From January 9 to January 19, zinc price falls in shock. With the end of stock up of manufacturers, zinc price loses the support of rising and zinc price falls in shock. Zinc market stock rises, zinc ingot supply increases and zinc market rises The force is weakened.

International LME Market

It can be seen from the figure that the price of zinc in LME market rose after new year’s day, and the rise of international zinc price has a good support for domestic zinc market.

Zinc concentrate processing fee

The processing fee of zinc concentrate decreased slightly, but the overall processing fee of zinc concentrate is still at a high level, the price of processing fee is high, the cost of zinc ingot is high, the falling space of zinc price is limited, and the power of zinc price rising is great.

3、 Future prospects

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of the business association, believes that: after the new year’s day, the processing fee of zinc concentrate is still at a high level, zinc smelting enterprises are highly motivated to start work, the supply of zinc ingots is sufficient, and the stock of zinc ingots is large, which has a certain negative impact on the zinc market; during the Spring Festival stock up, zinc enterprises raise the price of zinc, but the overall deal in the zinc market is cold, and the power of zinc price rise is insufficient; with the end of the stock up in the Spring Festival, the pressure of zinc price decline increases, and zinc prices increase Price volatility fell. In the future, the rise of international zinc price is good for domestic zinc market. From the perspective of supply and demand, the supply of zinc market is sufficient in the near future, the demand is cold, and the power of zinc price rise is insufficient. However, with the approaching of Spring Festival, the supply of zinc market will be affected by enterprise holidays. Before the year, the supply of zinc market may be short for a while. The seller’s market will appear in the zinc market next week or for a short time, and there is still room for zinc price rise next week. Zinc prices are expected to surge next week.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the market of PA6 in China rose in mid January, and the prices of various brands rose. The main offer price of traders for Zhongzhu 2.75-2.85 is about 13166.67 yuan / ton, up 3.95% from the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Caprolactam in the upper reaches of PA6 bottomed out this month and recovered. After a big fall, caprolactam started to rise. Recent raw material price support, coupled with the lack of supply of products affected by the weather in the north, the manufacturer intends to raise the price, the main caprolactam brand price increases to boost confidence in the field, and the downstream demand is OK. It is expected that caprolactam will maintain a certain upward trend in the later period, and it is suggested to pay attention to the change of raw material price; supported by the cost end of caprolactam’s increase, PA6 manufacturers raised the main model price in the second half of this week, driving dealers to hold up the price, and the mentality in the field was positively affected. The stock up before the festival also contributed to the improvement of PA6 demand, and the on-site trading turned warm.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts think: in January, the domestic PA6 market rose steadily, and some spot prices rose by a large margin. The trend of caprolactam upstream is positive, which supports the cost end of PA6. The replenishment enthusiasm of downstream factories has improved, and the delivery and investment situation has improved. It is expected that PA6 will continue to be sorted and operated in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the recent weak operation of monoammonium phosphate Market, the price fell steadily. On January 6, the market price of powdered monoammonium was 1906 yuan / ton, and on January 15, the market price of powdered monoammonium was 1890 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 0.87%. On January 15, the monoammonium phosphate commodity index was 63.26, unchanged from yesterday, 37.27% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 100.84 (2011-09-13), and 1.88% higher than the lowest point of 62.09 on September 19, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: at present, the operating rate of the enterprise is about 50%. At present, the factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei Province is 1800-2000 yuan / ton, and that of 60% powdered ammonium is 1950-2100 yuan / ton. The market in Henan Province has maintained stable operation. The ex factory quotation of 55% ammonium powder is 1800-1950 yuan / ton. The price of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1850-2000 yuan / ton, which is stable. The factory quotation of 55% ammonium powder in Sichuan is 1850 yuan -2000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: at present, the supply and demand of sulfur market is weak. Affected by environmental protection policies, the downstream demand is in a low level, and the delivery performance of refineries in various regions is poor, with narrow range arrangement. Refineries in various regions adjust their quotation according to their own delivery situation in the week. The quotation in East China and Shandong is stable, and the price of refineries in North China is reduced by 30 yuan / ton. Since the winter, the domestic phosphorus ore market has been in a weak and stable operation state. During this period, some mining enterprises reduced their prices or limited production slightly to meet the market demand in the off-season. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, mines around the country gradually stopped mining, and some enterprises in Hubei and Sichuan are now in the phase of shutdown. Some enterprises in Guizhou also have maintenance plans before and after the Spring Festival.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the first week of 2020 (1.6-1.10), there are 27 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are bisphenol A (9.65%), glycol (7.92%), ammonium chloride (5.09%). There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are caustic soda (- 5.22%), chloroform (- 4.55%), sodium metabisulfite (- 3.79%). This week’s average was 0.35%.

3、 Future forecast

According to analysts of monoammonium phosphate of business association, the demand side is still weak, and the downstream purchases on demand. In recent years, the transportation difficulties in many places have led to the increase of freight, and the overall price fluctuation is not big. It is expected that the price of monoammonium phosphate will not change significantly in the later period, and the market will still be weak and stable.

1. Trade name: magnesium ingot (9990)

2. Latest price (January 15, 2020): 14083.33 yuan / ton

On January 15, 2020, the ex factory cash price including tax of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) in main domestic production areas was weak and stable, and the specific price range was as follows:

The ex factory foreign exchange including tax in Fugu area is 138500-14100 yuan / ton; the foreign exchange in Taiyuan area is 14000-14100 yuan / ton; the foreign exchange in Wenxi area is 14050-14200 yuan / ton; and the foreign exchange in Ningxia area is 13900-14000 yuan / ton.

3. Key points of analysis: close to the Spring Festival, the trading tends to be weak, and the magnesium ingot market runs smoothly. It is reported that the magnesium ingot manufacturers’ pre-sale situation has occurred from time to time in the near future. The manufacturers’ low price pre-sale, after all, there is a rapid return of capital demand at the end of the year. At present, the downstream alloy manufacturers and magnesium powder manufacturers have completed their stock in succession years ago. The downstream raw material inventory has accumulated to a certain extent, and there are not many magnesium ingot manufacturers in stock, so there is a balance between supply and demand.

4. Future market forecast: supply and demand are in a stalemate, adding that the Spring Festival is coming, and trading tends to be weak. It is expected that the price of magnesium ingots will maintain stable operation in the near future, and the actual transaction situation in the market will be concerned in the later stage.