Commodity index: on July 13, the BPI of bulk commodity price index was 752 points, up 2 points compared with yesterday, 26.20% lower than the highest point of 1019 points (2012-04-10), and 13.94% higher than the lowest point of 660 points on February 3, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Price quotation: Business Association (100 ppi.com ）According to the monitoring data, the market of Polyacrylamide in July has shown a downward trend compared with that at the end of June. At present, many companies have lowered their prices in the first half of this month, and the overall range is not very large. On July 1, 2020, the mainstream market quotation was 13960 yuan / ton, which was about 60 yuan / ton lower than the average price of 14020 yuan / ton on June 30. On the 14th of this month, the price was about 13920 yuan / ton, which was about 40 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of this month. In the first half of this month, it was slightly reduced by 0.29%, but it was reduced by 0.71% compared with the end of last month.

Factor analysis:

First of all, from the perspective of industrial chain. Upstream acrylonitrile: from January to June 2020, the domestic market price will drop sharply first, and then it will continue to adjust to a certain extent. Since the second half of April, it stopped falling at 6350 yuan / ton. After stabilizing for half a month, it started to rebound from May. The half month quotation went up by 800 yuan / ton to 7150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation in the second half of the month was about 8000 yuan / ton. In June, it was stable at around 8550 yuan / ton in the middle of June, and continued to rise in the last ten days, with the highest value reaching about 8800-8900 yuan / ton, and then it was adjusted back to 8400 yuan / ton at the end of the month. In July, the price of acrylonitrile continued to fall. By the 13th, the price of acrylonitrile had dropped by about 1100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation was 7300 yuan / ton. In terms of upstream raw materials, the price of raw material propylene remained between 6500-7000 yuan / T, which led to the high pressure of acrylonitrile cost; in terms of units, the load of acrylonitrile unit of silbon Petrochemical Company resumed production in four lines on June 10, and the annual production capacity of Zhejiang Petrochemical was 260000 tons. The unit was put into trial production on June 23. The current operating load was 80%, and the start-up rate of ABS industry was maintained above 90%; the startup rate of acrylic fiber industry was maintained at above 90% Over 70%, the current domestic main manufacturers of acrylonitrile production is normal, the daily production is high, and the industry inventory is rising. Downstream demand: the demand for polyacrylamide has not improved greatly so far this year, and the manufacturers have great sales pressure. Due to the comprehensive influence of demand and cost, the prices of several polyacrylamide manufacturers have been reduced to some extent compared with June.

Secondly, the manufacturer production angle. According to the investigation, Henan Province, one of the main producing areas of polyacrylamide, has normal production and high inventory. Since July 1, many manufacturers have lowered their prices. Although the range is small, there are many price adjustments. So far in the first half of the month, some manufacturers have lowered their prices twice, and some manufacturers’ prices remain stable. The current price: cation: molecular weight: 12 million (10-30 ions) For anions, the quoted price is 6800-9600 yuan / ton for 10 million yuan, 7800-10500 yuan / ton for 12 million molecular weight, 9000-11500 yuan / ton for 14 million molecular weight solid particles, 9600-10500 yuan / ton for 16 million solid particles, 10400-11000 yuan / ton for 18 million molecular weight solid particles, 12000-12500 yuan / ton for 18 million-20 million molecular weight powder particles, respectively Ion: the quoted price is about 12000-13000 yuan / ton; generally, there is a reduction of about 100-200 yuan / ton at the lowest price position. The overall reduction range is different, and some specifications of some manufacturers have been reduced by 1000 yuan / ton. In general, the sales pressure of manufacturers and distributors is huge, and enterprises are helpless for the current situation. The current price has reached the low price level, and there is almost no room for downward trend. However, the prospect is still not so optimistic.

Thirdly, industry perspective. Since 2020, the prosperity of environmental protection water treatment industry is poor. During the period from January Spring Festival holiday to February 20, relevant enterprises in main production areas stopped production and delayed to resume work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production areas gradually returned to work and production. In March, logistics returned to normal, mainly consumed inventory. In April, the manufacturers survived normally, and the raw material cost was partly reduced and the demand was weak, which led to the high inventory of manufacturers. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery of charges, the price of acrylonitrile and other raw materials rose, the ex factory price of polyacrylamide did not change much, and there were more stocks; with the upstream propylene of acrylonitrile rising in the industrial chain relationship of “propylene PP melt blown cloth mask”, the production capacity of acrylonitrile manufacturers decreased this month, which directly led to the firm price of acrylonitrile. In July, the price of acrylonitrile dropped sharply and the cost of polyacrylamide was lowered. In fact, the cost of raw materials hoarding by manufacturers determines the current price and cost, and the impact on production cost is also different. As far as the whole industry is concerned, the market trend is determined by the cost reduction and poor demand, and the market will not improve much this month.

Future forecast:

According to the analysis of the business agency, the cost has been greatly reduced and the demand has not improved greatly so far this month, which has led to several small price cuts by many companies since the beginning of the month. In the first half of 2020, the development of water treatment industry is difficult, and the second half of 2020 is still not very optimistic. For the future market, the market will still maintain the current form, and there will be a slight decrease in the basic stability, and the frequency may increase. It is expected that the downstream demand will recover as soon as possible.