Since August, asphalt prices have been fluctuating downwards due to various factors. According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the ex factory price of heavy-duty asphalt # 70 in Shandong region was 3730 yuan/ton on August 1st, and as of August 30th, the ex factory price in Shandong region was 3660 yuan/ton.
Cost negative impact. International crude oil prices continued to decline in August. As of August 29th, the prices of major crude oil futures in the international market have fallen by 6.73% and 9.57% respectively compared to the end of July. This poses a cost drag on asphalt.
In August, downstream demand for asphalt performed poorly, social inventory was slowly depleted, and market expectations for the demand side were pessimistic. In September, although the construction of projects in some provinces has driven the concentrated release of demand for modified asphalt, and the demand for asphalt in both the northern and southern markets is expected to increase, the overall speed of demand improvement may be relatively slow. The supply side is relatively abundant, although the production schedule in August has declined compared to the previous month, the production enthusiasm of refineries on the supply side is still high. There is still a possibility of an increase in asphalt production schedule in September, and there is still ample supply in the production process.
From the perspective of Business Society, in the later stage, from a fundamental perspective, downstream demand for asphalt has performed poorly, social inventory depletion is still slow, and market expectations for the demand side are pessimistic; The production enthusiasm of refineries on the supply side is still high, and there is still a possibility of an increase in asphalt production in September. The production process is still well supplied. On the cost side, the international situation is uncertain and lacks clear guidance. Overall analysis shows that the asphalt spot market lacks sufficient favorable conditions, and currently, the profit margin of asphalt production is relatively good. This means that there may still be room for a downward adjustment in asphalt spot prices, and the short-term trend of spot prices is not optimistic.