According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market will fluctuate and rise in August 2025. From August 1st to 29th, the domestic butadiene market price rose from 9050 yuan/ton to 9283.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.58% during the period.
Early October: The trend of the butadiene market in this cycle is relatively volatile, with a slight increase. On the supply side, some domestic devices have restarted, but there are also some devices undergoing maintenance. Overall, the supply has slightly declined, and the devices in Shandong have not yet been exported, resulting in overall tight supply. The decline in prices at the beginning of the week on the demand side has attracted some downstream buyers to replenish inventory at low prices, but these are all temporary demands, and overall demand still leans towards rigid demand. Overall, the support on the demand side is limited.
Late period: The market trend of this cycle is relatively volatile. In mid period, it began to be boosted by the rise of downstream markets, and the atmosphere of the spot market began to improve. Domestic main refineries raised their ex factory prices one after another, driving a slight rebound in spot market prices. In the later stage, due to the downstream still being in a state of urgent procurement, the support for the market was limited, and spot prices generally rebounded. As of the end of the month, the butadiene market fluctuated and strengthened due to the strengthening of synthetic rubber and favorable supply and demand conditions. As of August 28th, the delivery price to the Shandong Luzhong area is between 9550-9630 yuan/ton.
Cost wise: As of the 26th, the settlement price of the October WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $63.25 per barrel, and the settlement price of the October Brent crude oil futures contract was $67.22 per barrel. During this round of price adjustment cycle, crude oil prices were mainly volatile. On the one hand, OPEC+announced a cumulative increase in production of 2.3 million barrels per day by September, marking the organization’s exit from its plan to reduce production by over 2.2 million barrels per day one year ahead of schedule. This news is bearish for the oil market. On the other hand, the tense situation in Europe and the upcoming peace talks have led to a weakening of geopolitical supply risks, negative global macro data, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut in September, making it difficult for the crude oil market to have positive support.
Supply side: As of the 29th, the listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 9500 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to the same period last month. Recently, the comprehensive operating rate of the domestic butadiene industry has not changed much, and the overall supply is relatively stable.
On the demand side, the market for butadiene rubber in August saw a slight increase. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 28th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 12200 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.01% from 11960 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material butadiene fluctuates and rises, causing the cost center of butadiene rubber to shift upwards; The production of butadiene rubber has fluctuated slightly, and there is not much pressure on the supply side; Downstream tire production has slightly increased, mainly supporting the demand for butadiene rubber. As of August 28th, the mainstream reports for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China are 11900~12400 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: The supply side performance is expected to be decent in the near future, with a slight easing overall and limited impact. The demand side synthetic rubber market has been strengthening overall recently, with good downstream support. Under the influence of demand support, it is expected that the butadiene market will have a stable to strong trend in the short term.