According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, this week’s PET (polyester bottle flakes) prices have shown a significant decline due to multiple pressures such as negative costs. As of April 11th, the average sales price of PET (polyester bottle flakes) is 5655 yuan/ton.
In terms of cost, factors such as OPEC+production increase, US tariff policies, and Iraq’s resumption of crude oil exports have put pressure on international oil prices. Brent crude oil has fallen below the key support level of $70 per barrel, weakening the cost support of the polyester industry chain. PTA and ethylene glycol prices have weakened. From April 1st to 11th, PTA prices fell from 4910 yuan/ton to 4489 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.57%. Ethylene glycol prices also fell by more than 3%. In addition, port inventories have risen to a high of 584400 tons, and the operating rate of coal production facilities has remained above 70%. The loose supply pattern is difficult to change, and price rebound is limited.
In terms of supply and demand: In 2025, the new production capacity of polyester bottle flakes will be 2.15 million tons, and coupled with the current high inventory in the same period, market concerns about oversupply have intensified. The operating rate of major production enterprises remains at 74.48%, and the supply continues to increase. However, the demand side has not improved synchronously, resulting in an imbalance between supply and demand. In terms of exports, due to the global economic slowdown and environmental policy restrictions, the export increment is not enough to offset the domestic supply pressure.
In response to the current market situation, Shengyi Society believes that the core logic behind the significant drop in polyester bottle chip prices this week is the multiple pressures of cost collapse, oversupply, and weak demand. In the short term, the price of PET market may adjust with the cost side, and the actual trend still needs to pay attention to the subsequent equipment, demand situation, and cost support under the traction of crude oil.