According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from April 7th to 11th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2487 yuan/ton to 2486 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.05% during the period, a maximum amplitude of 2.73%, a month on month decline of 6.88%, and a year-on-year decline of 3.63%. At the beginning of the week, under the influence of crude oil and policies, the domestic methanol market fell sharply. After falling to a low level, many downstream and trading companies restocked at the low price. In addition, some major production areas experienced equipment failures and reduced production, supporting the low rebound of the domestic methanol market. The methanol market is fluctuating and running.
As of the close on April 11th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2505 for methanol futures opened at 2420 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2424 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2374 yuan/ton. It closed at 2392 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 1 yuan or 0.04% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 688075 lots, the position is 392146 lots, and the daily increase is 55072 lots.
In terms of cost, recently, the domestic chemical coal market has stopped falling and rebounded, showing positive changes in the market. The coal mines in the production area maintain normal production, and the overall supply is basically stable. After a brief rise in port prices recently, they have returned to a stagnant market. Downstream terminal inventories are high, and they are adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards market resources. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, downstream acetic acid: the demand for acetic acid continues to decline; Downstream chloride: Increased demand for chloride; Downstream formaldehyde: Increased demand for formaldehyde; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand increases; Downstream dimethyl ether: There are no plans to stop driving dimethyl ether next week, and the demand fluctuation is not significant. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has increased, and the demand for methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the supply side, the overall recovery exceeds the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external trading, as of the close of April 10th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $348.50-349.50 per ton, a decrease of $3 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 92.00-93.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 287.50-288.50 yuan/ton, down 10 euros/ton.
In the future market forecast, there is ample supply, and some factories still have shipment demand, with a slight increase in traditional downstream demand expected. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly consolidate.