According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from April 7th to 11th, MTBE prices fell from 5637 yuan/ton to 5562 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.33% during the cycle, a month on month drop of 3.47%, and a year-on-year drop of 25.83%. The MTBE market has been operating narrowly and weakly, with the sharp drop in crude oil during the Qingming holiday and negative factors affecting the market trend. After the holiday, international crude oil continued to decline, and end-users still have enthusiasm for purchasing related gasoline components. The MTBE market has experienced a narrow decline.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International oil prices have significantly declined, with the main negative factors being the potential escalation of trade dispute risks due to the new US tariff policies, weakened global economic and demand prospects, and market concerns. As of April 10th, the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $63.33 per barrel.
On the demand side, in terms of gasoline terminal demand, with the rise in temperatures in various regions, the frequency of people using private cars for travel has decreased, and the overall shipment performance of retail gas stations is average. Gas station merchants mostly maintain medium to high inventory for procurement and sales. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by favorable factors.
Supply side: The operating load of the equipment will continue to increase, and there is an expectation of further increase in resource supply. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.
As of the close on April 10th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $17.69/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $636.84-638.84/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $22.75/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $719.74-720.24/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $17.74 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $668.76-669.12 per ton (188.83-188.93 cents per gallon).
In the future, it is predicted that crude oil will continue to be weak, MTBE supply will slightly increase, and terminal demand will be relatively flat. Manufacturers will maintain a focus on volume. MTBE analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the domestic MTBE market is mainly characterized by weak fluctuations.