According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from January 12th to 17th, the domestic ethanol price rose from 5195 yuan/ton to 5207 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.24% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 19.11%. The domestic edible ethanol market is mainly characterized by stable prices. Overall, the supply of spot goods on site is relatively loose. With the Spring Festival travel rush, the country is also experiencing the coldest time of the year. With logistics gradually taking a break, terminal stocking may be nearing its end.

In terms of cost, the price of corn in the main production areas is stable with some increase, corresponding to a cost increase of 10-40 yuan/ton. The profit margin of alcohol enterprises is still slim. Based on the current corn and alcohol prices, the profit is estimated to be around 20 yuan/ton. The cost support of ethanol is still acceptable.

On the supply side, the alcohol production facilities in the Henan market may have a shutdown plan during the Spring Festival period. The overall spot supply on the supply side is abundant, and the willingness of enterprises to raise prices is strong. The inquiry atmosphere is still acceptable. There are unlikely to be major favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

On the demand side, Baijiu consumption support still exists; Methyl ethyl ester maintains stable purchasing volume for anhydrous ethanol; The utilization rate of ethyl acetate production capacity fluctuates narrowly. The short-term impact of ethanol demand is expected to break through.

In the future forecast, downstream enterprises are watching the market with insufficient positive news, and terminal procurement is mainly for essential needs. Business Society’s ethanol analyst predicts that the domestic ethanol market will consolidate and operate in the short term.