In 2024, the domestic nylon filament market operated weakly throughout the year, with prices fluctuating with the cost side, with fluctuations seen in both directions, with less increase and more decrease, resulting in a broad decline in overall prices.
The price has experienced a wide decline throughout the year
The year-end price of nylon DTY was 17080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1820 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year, with an annual decline of 9.63%. The year-end price of nylon POY was 14650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1775 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year, with an annual decline of 10.81%. The year-end price of nylon FDY was 17925 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1725 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year, with an annual decline of 8.78%.
The average price of nylon DTY70D/24F in 2024 is 18592.13 yuan/ton, and the average price in 2023 is 19131.45 yuan/ton, with an annual average price decline of 2.82%. The annual high appeared in early June, with a price of 19600 yuan/ton; The lowest point of the year occurred at the end of December, with a price of 17080 yuan/ton.
Price Trend of Nylon Silk in 2024
1. At the beginning of the year, the market price of raw materials surged significantly, and the downstream market entered the replenishment stage before the Spring Festival. Both the cost and demand sides had positive support, and the price of nylon filament market was cautiously upward.
2. In the second quarter, the prices of raw materials such as caprolactam and PA6 chips continued to rise, coupled with the arrival of the “Silver IV” project. The production of downstream equipment in the domestic market remained at a high level, with strong demand and decent foreign trade business. Supported by the dual benefits, the prices of nylon filament in the market skyrocketed.
3. In the second half of the year, the market prices of caprolactam and PA6 chips fell significantly, with weak cost support, and the market prices of nylon filament continued to decline; In early December, driven by the rise in costs, there was a slight increase, but downstream factories continued to accumulate finished product inventory, which dragged down the market trend on the demand side. At the end of the year, the price of nylon filament market fell weakly.
The highest price of nylon DTY in the year was in early June, with a price of 19600 yuan/ton; At the end of December, the lowest price of the year was 17080 yuan/ton; The annual decline of nylon DTY market is 9.63%, with a price drop of 1820 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year; The annual decline in the nylon POY market is 10.81%, with a price drop of 1775 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year; The annual decline of nylon FDY market is 8.78%, with a price drop of 1725 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year.
Reasons for the significant decline in nylon yarn prices in 2024
The raw material caprolactam has experienced a significant decline
From the price fluctuation chart of the nylon industry chain, it can be seen that the cost has significantly decreased. The upstream raw material for nylon filament is caprolactam, and the price has been strongly correlated with the price of caprolactam for a long time. The upstream raw material caprolactam to some extent determines the price trend of the nylon filament market. In 2024, both prices will experience a weak and wide decline.
In 2024, the market will operate weakly throughout the year, with prices showing a significant downward trend overall. The price of caprolactam at the beginning of the year was 13842 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year it was 10903 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2939 yuan/ton or 21.23%.
The contradiction between supply and demand of nylon yarn intensifies in 2024
In 2024, most of the nylon filament market facilities will maintain high load operation and overcapacity.
In recent years, the production of nylon filament has remained stable and steadily increasing. In 2023, China’s nylon production reached 4.44 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.29%; The production of nylon filament in 2024 is 4.67 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.18%. In the past three years, the annual production of nylon filament in China has exceeded 4 million tons, accounting for about one-third of the global total production.
Demand for nylon filament decreases in 2024
The domestic consumption of nylon in 2024 is 3.92 million tons, a decrease of 3.25% compared to last year.
1. The demand in the first half of the year is better than that in the second half.
2. In the early stage of the Spring Festival, there was good demand in the terminal market, and downstream manufacturers were still proactive in stocking up before the holiday. Some nylon filament manufacturers had orders as high as April, and the demand side support was strong.
3. In the second quarter, downstream manufacturers maintained a high machine operating rate and had strong demand for raw materials. Although there have been no exceptionally popular models of nylon filament products in the market since the “Silver IV” event, the domestic market is mainly focused on rigid procurement, but foreign trade business has improved and overall market demand is strong.
4. With the end of the May Day holiday, the market is gradually transitioning to the off-season of demand, and downstream yarn factories are holding onto rigid demand orders. Despite the traditional peak season of “golden September and silver October”, the demand side has not shown significant improvement until the end of the year when downstream factories gradually enter the stage of order closure, and demand weakens again.
Prominent supply-demand contradiction
From the graph, it can be seen that in 2024, domestic nylon production will increase, consumption will decrease, and the production to sales ratio will increase. In recent years, the demand for nylon in China has maintained a relatively steady growth trend, with production significantly exceeding consumption. The apparent domestic consumption of nylon in 2024 is 3.92 million tons, a decrease of 3.25% compared to last year. One increase and one decrease have exacerbated the supply-demand contradiction, and overcapacity has become more apparent.
Factors influencing the nylon market in 2025
The supply-demand contradiction is difficult to change: In 2024, the supply of domestic nylon filament market will continue to exceed demand, and the production consumption gap will reach 750000 tons. The production capacity will continue to increase. Therefore, it is expected that the overall performance of the nylon filament market supply side will be prosperous in 2025. The domestic market demand is limited and seasonal, making it difficult to make significant improvements. In addition, there is a possibility of a continuous decrease in demand in the foreign market. Therefore, it is expected that the downstream demand for nylon filament market will decrease by 2025. The supply-demand contradiction will continue in 2025, and the situation is difficult to change in the short term.
The focus of raw materials will rise: the price of caprolactam, an upstream raw material for nylon, will drop by 21.23% annually in 2024, reaching a historical low. At the end of 2024, the price will be 10903 yuan/ton, with room for further increase. There are still many new production plans for the caprolactam market in 2025, among which the 600000 ton/year caprolactam new plant in Guangxi is expected to be completed and put into operation by 2025. In addition, there are still 300000 ton/year caprolactam plant production plans in Shandong, so the expected supply of caprolactam in the market is gradually increasing. The increase in production capacity and output has made it difficult for prices to rise to a certain extent. It is expected that caprolactam will steadily increase in 2025, and the annual average price will rise year-on-year. This will provide positive support for the price of nylon.
Prediction of Nylon Price Trend in 2025
The price of nylon filament in 2024 is at a relatively low level compared to previous years, and there is a possibility of upward recovery in the low price of nylon filament in 2025, but the market will still be mainly weak. Looking ahead to 2025, overall, the market for raw material caprolactam may have a higher focus, supported by favorable cost factors in the nylon filament market; There is an expectation of an increase in market supply, coupled with no obvious improvement in downstream market demand, making the supply-demand contradiction difficult to resolve.
Therefore, it is expected that the nylon filament market will continue to be weak in 2025, and prices will fluctuate with the rise and fall of raw materials. The overall market price will rise, with an expected increase of around 500-800 yuan/ton.
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