1、 Price trend
On June 5, the average ex factory price of oil-based glycol in North China was 3750 yuan / ton, up 67 yuan / ton or 1.81% from last week, according to the data of business agency.
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On June 4, the market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3635 yuan / ton, up 70 yuan / ton or 1.96% compared with last Friday.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
As of June 4, the ethylene glycol inventory in the main reservoir area of East China was about 1312500 tons, an increase of 30200 tons, or 2.36%, compared with last Thursday, and 14900 tons, or 1.15%, compared with this Monday. Due to the continuous accumulation of inventory, the current inventory has been at the highest level in the same period of three years, causing greater pressure on the price rise.
In terms of shipment, this week, the main port of Zhangjiagang delivered about 6600 tons per day, and Taicang delivered about 6300 tons per day to the two warehouses. Recently, there is a downward trend in the delivery, which also has a negative impact on the price trend of glycol.
At present, the operating rate of glycol is about 52%, and that of polyester downstream is about 88%. Although both of them have increased, the operating rate of glycol is still at a low level, which will not cause pressure on the price in the short term.
In terms of devices, Xinjiang Tianye 200000 tons and China Science and technology refinery 500000 tons plan to start commissioning in late June. The impact of the new device on the supply side has a delayed effect, and it is expected to discharge materials normally next month.
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In terms of import, according to data statistics, the cumulative import volume of glycol from January to May was 4.5396 million tons, 3% higher than that in 2019.
3、 Analysis and prediction
Due to the impact of overseas sources of goods, as well as the slow digestion of upstream and downstream, the inventory is high. It is expected that glycol will be difficult to get rid of the current situation of slow de stocking in the short term, market confidence will not be boosted, and prices will continue to maintain a volatile situation.
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