1、 Price trend

Recently, caprolactam has fallen in a row, according to the data in the business club’s bulk list. On March 18, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 10266 yuan / ton, on March 27, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 9266 yuan / ton, and the price fell 9.74% on March 10. On March 27, the caprolactam commodity index was 46.61, which was the same as yesterday, setting a new low in the cycle, 53.39% lower than the highest point of 100.00 on March 2, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2017-03-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: crude oil plummeted, cost was under heavy pressure, caprolactam fell continuously. Up to now, the price of caprolactam liquid of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 9000 yuan / ton, cash is delivered from the factory, the capacity of the manufacturer is 300000 tons, and the actual transaction can be discussed. The price of Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid is 9800 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit is in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit is in normal operation. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 9200 yuan / ton, and the 450000 ton / year unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 9200 yuan / ton, and the 300000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted.

Industrial chain: the price focus of raw material pure benzene has moved down again, and the port inventory has accumulated slightly. Sinopec sharply lowered the listing price of pure benzene on August 18 and 19, with a total decrease of 1450 yuan / ton, or 28.63%. At the beginning of the month, the average listing price of pure benzene was 5380.2 yuan / ton, and on the 20th, the average listing price was 3840 yuan / ton, down 28.63%. Imports of pure benzene fell sharply, the market negative mentality is heavier. Downstream products were dragged down by weak terminal demand, inventory release was slow, and the pure benzene market continued to be negative.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 12th week of 2020 (3.23-3.27), there are 10 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical sector, including 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are formic acid (17.09%), isopropanol (17.08%) and nitric acid (3.23%). There are 40 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 14 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 16.1% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are pure benzene (- 19.30%), crude benzene (- 15.83%) and ethylene oxide (- 13.16%). This week’s average was – 1.6%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of caprolactam, a business association, believe that the pure benzene market follows the decline due to the fall of international oil price, and the cost side of caprolactam has been greatly explored. The market is in wait-and-see mood, and downstream demand weakens. It is expected that the market of caprolactam will be dominated by weak and sluggish operation in the short term.