1、 Price trend
In March 2020, the coke market continued to decline. The main market price in Shanxi Province was 1716.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 1563.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of 8.93%.
On March 31, the coke commodity index was 82.06, unchanged from yesterday, down 39.23% from 135.04 (2018-09-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 136.83% from 34.65, the lowest point on March 3, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).
2、 Trend analysis
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Price: according to the data monitoring of business association, as of 31, the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Shanghai is 1730 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of primary metallurgical coke is 1790 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Xuzhou is 1700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of primary metallurgical coke is 1770 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Weifang, Shandong is 1690 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of primary metallurgical coke is 1750 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province is 1750 yuan / ton The mainstream price of grade I metallurgical coke is 1590 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of grade I metallurgical coke is 1640 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of grade II metallurgical coke in Mudanjiang, Heilongjiang is 1630 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of grade I metallurgical coke is 1690 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of grade II metallurgical coke in Shenyang, Liaoning Province is 1660 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of grade I metallurgical coke is 1720 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of grade II metallurgical coke in Pingdingshan, Henan Province is 1700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of grade I metallurgical coke is 1700 yuan / ton The mainstream price of metallurgical coke is 1800 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan, Hebei is 1680 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1730 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tianjin is 1700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1800 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua, Sichuan is 1830 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Liupanshui, Guizhou is 1830 yuan / ton In 1920 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Ordos coke market is 1350 yuan / ton. The port trade of primary metallurgical coke is about 1950 yuan / ton, the trade of quasi primary metallurgical coke is about 1850 yuan / ton, and the trade of secondary metallurgical coke is about 1750 yuan / ton.
Import and export: according to the data released by the General Administration of customs, China exported 360000 tons of coke from January to February, a year-on-year decrease of 1.04 million tons, or 74.21%. The export volume of coke in January February was 90.48 million US dollars.
Product: the coke market continued to decline this month, down three times, accumulatively down 150 yuan / ton. By the end of 31, the main transaction price of quasi first grade wet quenching coke in Shanxi was about 1550-1650 yuan / ton. At the beginning of this month, due to the start-up of downstream steel plants has not fully recovered, the demand for coke is limited, and the price of coke has declined. After the middle and late ten days, the steel plant gradually returned to work, mainly purchasing coke on demand. In April, the environmental protection and production restriction will be in place in Hebei Province. In April, the iron and steel enterprises with performance evaluation of a and B in Tangshan city will not limit production. The iron and steel enterprises with performance evaluation of C will implement hierarchical control. The demand of the steel plant is limited, and there is no strong support for coke. The coke enterprises have stable start-up, and the price is slightly lower.
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Upstream and downstream: in March, from the perspective of steel market, the firmness of raw material price and the decline of finished product price put great pressure on the profits of steel mills. Although there is still a profit margin of 87.78% (survey data of 247 steel mills in China), the overall profit level is low. According to the data of CISA, from January to February, member steel enterprises realized a year-on-year drop of 6.04% in sales revenue, a year-on-year drop of 35.8% in profits, and a year-on-year drop of 1.09% in sales profit margin of only 2.35%. It can be seen that its profit is expected to decrease even more at the industry level in March.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in March 2020, the price of bulk commodities in the list of energy sector rose one commodity month on month, with LNG (7.42%) rising. There are 15 commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 13 commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 81.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling were WTI crude oil (- 57.34%), Brent crude oil (- 48.93%) and liquefied gas (- 26.85%), with an average increase or decrease of – 19.01% this month.
3、 Future forecast
In the follow-up, we will focus on the operating rate and price trend of the steel plant. With the gradual recovery of domestic production, the demand for coke has risen steadily, and the price of coke still has support for a long time.
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