price trend
In the past week (February 28 to March 6, 2026), the PA66 market has been rapidly rising driven by costs, but high price transactions have been weak. On March 6th, the benchmark price of PA66 in Shengyi Society was reported at 16833.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.32% compared to 15833.33 on February 28th. This week, the price of succinic acid continues to rise, and market transactions are still acceptable. PA66 enterprises will reduce production and load during the Spring Festival period, with downstream small orders mainly needing replenishment.
influencing factors
In terms of cost:
The recent geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has pushed up the cost of crude oil and petroleum derivatives, and the adipic acid market has experienced a sharp rise, with a two-day increase of nearly 5%. Manufacturers continue to raise factory prices, and market transactions are still acceptable. As of March 5th, the average price of adipic acid in the domestic market is around 8700 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton.
Supply side:
After the holiday, there was not much inventory pressure on the PA66 polymerization unit. During the Spring Festival, production was reduced to reduce load, and prices actively increased. Traders were reluctant to sell, and low-priced sources of goods were almost extinct.
In terms of demand:
This week, the downstream textile industry mainly focused on small orders that require replenishment, with few large transactions. There is a clear wait-and-see attitude towards high prices, and the ability to transfer PA66 costs is limited, limiting the increase in price.
Future forecast
In the future, the PA66 market is still supported by costs and supply in the short term, and prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall. However, weak demand recovery and overcapacity pressure will suppress the upward trend, and it is highly likely to show a “high-level oscillation and narrowing of gains” trend. Focus on the trend of raw material prices in the evolution of geopolitical conflicts and the resumption of downstream work and orders after the holiday.

On March 2nd (Monday) local time, the international crude oil futures market experienced severe fluctuations, with NYMEX crude oil futures rising more than 6% and Brent crude oil futures climbing significantly, with an increase of nearly 7%. The core driving force stems from the sharp escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East after Israel and the United States launched attacks on Iran. Multiple oil and gas facilities have been forced to shut down, key energy shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz have been blocked, and market concerns about global crude oil supply disruptions have escalated sharply.
Specifically, let’s take a look:
On March 2nd (Monday) New York time, the active April crude oil futures contract on NYMEX rose $4.21, a 6.3% increase, and settled at $71.23 per barrel; The contract surged over 12% to $75.33 during trading, reaching its highest level since June last year. During the same period, the Brent crude oil futures contract rose $4.87, or 6.7%, in May, settling at $77.74 per barrel. It surged 13% during trading to $82.37, setting a new high since January 2025.
The energy derivatives market is strengthening synchronously
The April heating oil futures contract rose 30.44 cents, settling at $2.9004 per gallon; The RBOB gasoline futures contract rose 8.51 cents in April, settling at $2.3706 per gallon. At the same time, domestic retail gasoline prices in the United States have risen synchronously. On March 2nd, the average retail gasoline price in the United States exceeded $3 per gallon, setting a new high since November last year. Analysts predict that if the Middle East conflict continues to escalate, oil and gasoline prices will further rise in the coming days.
The ongoing escalation of the Middle East conflict and the expected increase in energy supply disruptions
The core cause of this surge in oil prices is the continued escalation of the Middle East conflict and the direct impact on the energy supply side. After Israel and the United States launched attacks on Iran, Tehran quickly retaliated by launching attacks on energy facilities in major Middle Eastern oil producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, leading to the forced closure of multiple facilities. Among them, Saudi Aramco’s Rastanula refinery (the largest refinery in Saudi Arabia) located in the Eastern Province was attacked by a drone and triggered a fire. Although the fire has been brought under control, Saudi Aramco has taken preventive measures to close the refinery; Qatar Energy Company announced the suspension of liquefied natural gas production and is preparing to declare force majeure on liquefied natural gas transportation due to the attack on two of its energy facilities. As the world’s third-largest natural gas producer, Qatar’s liquefied natural gas exports will reach 82.2 million tons in 2025, and the supply interruption has further exacerbated energy market panic. More importantly, on the night of March 2nd local time, the adviser to the commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps made it clear that the Strait of Hormuz had been closed and Iran would strike all ships attempting to pass through the strait. This move directly led to a serious obstruction of global energy transportation.

According to statistics, under normal circumstances, the daily volume of crude oil transported by ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz accounts for about one-fifth of global demand. At the same time, this waterway is also the core channel for about 20% of global liquefied natural gas transportation, carrying 38% of the world’s seaborne crude oil trade volume. As a result, as of 17:00 on March 2nd, only 2 bulk carriers and 2 special ships had passed through the strait, a significant decrease from the daily average of 124 ships before the attack. Currently, about 7% of the global crude oil tanker capacity is stranded in the strait, a decrease of more than 40% in traffic. Another 150 ships have anchored and been stranded near the strait, and at least three oil tankers have been damaged. Many ships anchor in safe waters to avoid risks.
Doubts about the effectiveness of OPEC+in increasing production
In terms of production policy, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have released expectations for increased production. On March 1st, eight major OPEC member countries held an online meeting and reached an agreement to increase production by 206000 barrels per day starting from April to meet the peak demand for summer oil. This decision broke the production halt in the first quarter of 2026. Market participants generally believe that OPEC’s remaining production capacity space is already very limited. Except for Saudi Arabia, all OPEC oil producing countries are basically in a state of full capacity production. The actual effect of this production increase plan on easing the current supply shortage is questionable, and it is difficult to hedge the risk of supply interruption caused by the Middle East conflict.
Future prospects
The market has significant differences in the future trend of oil prices, but it is generally believed that short-term domestic margin risks will become the core logic of oil price operation, while long-term trends depend on the duration of conflicts and the degree of supply damage.
Major institutions have released opinions one after another: JPMorgan Chase pointed out that if shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for three to four weeks, it may force Gulf oil producing countries to stop production, Brent crude oil prices may soar to over $100 per barrel, and most oil producing countries can only maintain oil production for about 25 days, after which they will face mandatory production cuts; Citigroup expects Brent crude oil prices to remain in the range of $80 to $90 per barrel for the next week, and is expected to fall back to $70 per barrel if the situation eases; Goldman Sachs estimates that the current crude oil price already includes a real-time risk premium of $18 per barrel. If only half of the crude oil transportation in the Strait of Hormuz is interrupted for a month, this premium will drop to $4; Some institutions also believe that if the oil tanker route fails to recover quickly, oil prices may exceed $100 per barrel.
According to crude oil analysts from Shengyi Society, the key factors in this situation are the specific magnitude and duration of supply damage, as well as changes in policies in the later stages, including OPEC production adjustments and the release of reserve inventories by the United States. If the Middle East conflict persists for a long time, it will not only lead to a continuous rise in oil prices, but also exacerbate global inflationary pressures, thereby dragging down global economic growth. In the future, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the progress of the US Iran incident, the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz, and the actual implementation effect of OPEC’s production increase plan.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the formic acid market has shown a stable operating trend recently. As of March 4th, the benchmark price of 85% industrial grade formic acid in Shengyi Society was 2450 yuan/ton, which remained at the same level as before the year.
Moderate game between supply and demand sides
The seller’s quotation remains stable, while the buyer’s procurement mainly relies on replenishing inventory as needed, without large-scale hoarding or selling behavior, and the overall market maintains dynamic balance. Due to the expected impact of future sea freight rates, domestic formic acid production enterprises have begun to concentrate on shipping goods and execute export orders in advance. The accumulated inventory in the early stage has been partially digested, and inventory pressure has been alleviated to some extent.
There is an expectation of an upward trend in the future market
In March, some formic acid production enterprises plan to carry out equipment maintenance and shutdown, which is expected to have a certain impact on the market supply side and may lead to a slight contraction in the short-term total supply. At the same time, there are positive signals from the downstream industry demand side, and the market generally expects a slight rebound in downstream demand from March to April, which is expected to provide some support for the formic acid market and alleviate the possible contraction pressure on the supply side.
Formic acid data analysts believe that formic acid has shown the characteristics of “price stability, supply-demand balance, and expected differentiation” in recent times. With the implementation of some enterprise maintenance and shutdown plans in March, there may be a slight contraction in the market supply side. If downstream demand can recover as expected, it is expected to promote a slight upward trend in formic acid prices. Specific market changes still need to be monitored.

Product Name: Pure Benzene
Latest price: The average market price on March 3rd was 6620 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.2% compared to the previous trading day.
Analysis: The market price of pure benzene continues to rise today. The continuous escalation of the Middle East conflict and the direct impact on the energy supply side have led to a sharp rise in crude oil futures. There is significant support for pure benzene, which has followed the strong rise in oil prices. Sinopec’s listing price has been significantly increased by 6600 yuan/ton, to be implemented on March 3rd. Shandong’s local refining enterprises saw an increase of around 300 yuan today, with factory prices mostly around 6600-6700 yuan/ton. Sellers are reluctant to sell their goods. It is expected that the pure benzene market will mainly operate strongly in the short term, and actual transactions are subject to negotiation.

Acetic anhydride prices fell in February
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 28th, the price of acetic anhydride was 4540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton or 1.09% from the price of 4290 yuan/ton on February 1st.
The acetic anhydride market was strong and weak in February. On the supply side, there is currently no significant fluctuation in the acetic anhydride plant, and the operating rate is relatively stable; Downstream market entry is mainly based on demand, and the market trading atmosphere is average. Acetic anhydride is greatly affected by raw material prices. The overall price of acetic anhydride in the upstream has fallen, and the cost support for acetic anhydride has weakened. Acetic anhydride manufacturers have a bearish attitude, and acetic anhydride prices have weakly declined this month.
The acetic acid market fluctuated in February
According to the Business Society Acetic Acid Commodity Market Analysis System, as of February 28th, the price was 2796.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.18% compared to the acetic acid price of 2830 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The operating rate of acetic acid is relatively high, the market supply is stable, and enterprises maintain a focus on shipments. After the holiday, downstream recovery is slow, market transactions are poor, and the supply and demand of acetic acid are weak, resulting in a lower price center. The overall weakness of the acetic acid market during the month has insufficient support for the downstream acetic anhydride market.
Future prospects
Business analysts believe that in terms of raw materials, the acetic acid market is consolidating weakly, and the cost of acetic anhydride is bearish; The acetic anhydride plant on the supply side has started operating steadily, and inventory levels have steadily increased; Downstream urgent follow-up is needed, and the market trading atmosphere is average. Looking at the future market, the acetic anhydride market will continue to operate weakly, and specific attention should be paid to changes in upstream prices.

After the 2026 Spring Festival, the overall domestic calcium carbide market will decline, with prices gradually falling from pre holiday highs. The supply-demand imbalance, logistics blockage, and weakened cost support continued the downward trend on February 27th, with a short-term focus on destocking and weak fluctuations.
In terms of main production areas, the mainstream ex factory price in Wuhai and Ningxia is 2300-2350 yuan/ton, while Shanxi’s 290L/KG has increased by 2300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150-250 yuan/ton (a decrease of 6-10%) compared to the previous period. Consumer areas such as North China, Central China, and East China have also experienced a simultaneous decline. The receiving price in Hebei, Henan, and Shandong is 2730-2910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100-250 yuan/ton compared to the previous period; Continued weakness in late February, with strong bearish sentiment within the market.
Adequate supply combined with weak demand, high inventory
-On the supply side, there was high pre holiday production and stable production during the Spring Festival period. However, limited transportation of hazardous chemicals resulted in a backlog of goods, leading to high inventory and shipping pressure in the main production areas.
-On the demand side, downstream stocks are sufficient before the holiday, but purchasing intentions are low after the holiday. The resumption of work in core industries is slow, which has dragged down the demand for calcium carbide.
Periodic imbalance between supply and demand. Stable production on the supply side but limited logistics and inventory backlog; On the demand side (PVC accounts for 75% of the demand), there is sufficient pre holiday stocking but slow post holiday resumption of work, resulting in low acceptance of high priced calcium carbide. The supply-demand balance has shifted from tight to unbalanced, driving down prices.
Logistics obstruction. During the Spring Festival, the high-speed restriction of hazardous chemicals in many places (some up to 9 days) has extended the transportation cycle, exacerbating the contradiction between “production area backlog and sales area shortage”. Logistics recovery after the holiday is still difficult to digest inventory in the short term.
Weakened cost support: The downward adjustment of raw material orchid charcoal prices has weakened its role as a bottom support; The profit of calcium carbide enterprises has shrunk, and some losses still need to be reduced in price for shipment.
In March, the domestic calcium carbide market was still in a pattern of “destocking and weak demand”, with downward pressure easing but weak rebound. The supply side started production steadily, and high inventory was waiting to be digested. Inner Mongolia’s orderly electricity policy may have a temporary impact on supply, and downstream demand gradually resumed work but was dragged down by the March maintenance wave. The procurement volume of calcium carbide slowly rebounded, and it is expected that the price will fluctuate between 2300-2700 yuan/ton, with some areas possibly rebounding, making it difficult to rebound in the short term; In the future, it is necessary to focus on tracking four key indicators: inventory and shipment pace in the main production areas of Northwest China, downstream PVC and BDO production and maintenance plans, price trends of raw materials such as blue charcoal, and recovery of hazardous chemical logistics, in order to determine the market’s future trends.