After the 2026 Spring Festival, the overall domestic calcium carbide market will decline, with prices gradually falling from pre holiday highs. The supply-demand imbalance, logistics blockage, and weakened cost support continued the downward trend on February 27th, with a short-term focus on destocking and weak fluctuations.
In terms of main production areas, the mainstream ex factory price in Wuhai and Ningxia is 2300-2350 yuan/ton, while Shanxi’s 290L/KG has increased by 2300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150-250 yuan/ton (a decrease of 6-10%) compared to the previous period. Consumer areas such as North China, Central China, and East China have also experienced a simultaneous decline. The receiving price in Hebei, Henan, and Shandong is 2730-2910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100-250 yuan/ton compared to the previous period; Continued weakness in late February, with strong bearish sentiment within the market.
Adequate supply combined with weak demand, high inventory
-On the supply side, there was high pre holiday production and stable production during the Spring Festival period. However, limited transportation of hazardous chemicals resulted in a backlog of goods, leading to high inventory and shipping pressure in the main production areas.
-On the demand side, downstream stocks are sufficient before the holiday, but purchasing intentions are low after the holiday. The resumption of work in core industries is slow, which has dragged down the demand for calcium carbide.
Periodic imbalance between supply and demand. Stable production on the supply side but limited logistics and inventory backlog; On the demand side (PVC accounts for 75% of the demand), there is sufficient pre holiday stocking but slow post holiday resumption of work, resulting in low acceptance of high priced calcium carbide. The supply-demand balance has shifted from tight to unbalanced, driving down prices.
Logistics obstruction. During the Spring Festival, the high-speed restriction of hazardous chemicals in many places (some up to 9 days) has extended the transportation cycle, exacerbating the contradiction between “production area backlog and sales area shortage”. Logistics recovery after the holiday is still difficult to digest inventory in the short term.
Weakened cost support: The downward adjustment of raw material orchid charcoal prices has weakened its role as a bottom support; The profit of calcium carbide enterprises has shrunk, and some losses still need to be reduced in price for shipment.
In March, the domestic calcium carbide market was still in a pattern of “destocking and weak demand”, with downward pressure easing but weak rebound. The supply side started production steadily, and high inventory was waiting to be digested. Inner Mongolia’s orderly electricity policy may have a temporary impact on supply, and downstream demand gradually resumed work but was dragged down by the March maintenance wave. The procurement volume of calcium carbide slowly rebounded, and it is expected that the price will fluctuate between 2300-2700 yuan/ton, with some areas possibly rebounding, making it difficult to rebound in the short term; In the future, it is necessary to focus on tracking four key indicators: inventory and shipment pace in the main production areas of Northwest China, downstream PVC and BDO production and maintenance plans, price trends of raw materials such as blue charcoal, and recovery of hazardous chemical logistics, in order to determine the market’s future trends.