On March 2nd (Monday) local time, the international crude oil futures market experienced severe fluctuations, with NYMEX crude oil futures rising more than 6% and Brent crude oil futures climbing significantly, with an increase of nearly 7%. The core driving force stems from the sharp escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East after Israel and the United States launched attacks on Iran. Multiple oil and gas facilities have been forced to shut down, key energy shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz have been blocked, and market concerns about global crude oil supply disruptions have escalated sharply.
Specifically, let’s take a look:
On March 2nd (Monday) New York time, the active April crude oil futures contract on NYMEX rose $4.21, a 6.3% increase, and settled at $71.23 per barrel; The contract surged over 12% to $75.33 during trading, reaching its highest level since June last year. During the same period, the Brent crude oil futures contract rose $4.87, or 6.7%, in May, settling at $77.74 per barrel. It surged 13% during trading to $82.37, setting a new high since January 2025.
The energy derivatives market is strengthening synchronously
The April heating oil futures contract rose 30.44 cents, settling at $2.9004 per gallon; The RBOB gasoline futures contract rose 8.51 cents in April, settling at $2.3706 per gallon. At the same time, domestic retail gasoline prices in the United States have risen synchronously. On March 2nd, the average retail gasoline price in the United States exceeded $3 per gallon, setting a new high since November last year. Analysts predict that if the Middle East conflict continues to escalate, oil and gasoline prices will further rise in the coming days.
The ongoing escalation of the Middle East conflict and the expected increase in energy supply disruptions
The core cause of this surge in oil prices is the continued escalation of the Middle East conflict and the direct impact on the energy supply side. After Israel and the United States launched attacks on Iran, Tehran quickly retaliated by launching attacks on energy facilities in major Middle Eastern oil producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, leading to the forced closure of multiple facilities. Among them, Saudi Aramco’s Rastanula refinery (the largest refinery in Saudi Arabia) located in the Eastern Province was attacked by a drone and triggered a fire. Although the fire has been brought under control, Saudi Aramco has taken preventive measures to close the refinery; Qatar Energy Company announced the suspension of liquefied natural gas production and is preparing to declare force majeure on liquefied natural gas transportation due to the attack on two of its energy facilities. As the world’s third-largest natural gas producer, Qatar’s liquefied natural gas exports will reach 82.2 million tons in 2025, and the supply interruption has further exacerbated energy market panic. More importantly, on the night of March 2nd local time, the adviser to the commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps made it clear that the Strait of Hormuz had been closed and Iran would strike all ships attempting to pass through the strait. This move directly led to a serious obstruction of global energy transportation.

According to statistics, under normal circumstances, the daily volume of crude oil transported by ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz accounts for about one-fifth of global demand. At the same time, this waterway is also the core channel for about 20% of global liquefied natural gas transportation, carrying 38% of the world’s seaborne crude oil trade volume. As a result, as of 17:00 on March 2nd, only 2 bulk carriers and 2 special ships had passed through the strait, a significant decrease from the daily average of 124 ships before the attack. Currently, about 7% of the global crude oil tanker capacity is stranded in the strait, a decrease of more than 40% in traffic. Another 150 ships have anchored and been stranded near the strait, and at least three oil tankers have been damaged. Many ships anchor in safe waters to avoid risks.
Doubts about the effectiveness of OPEC+in increasing production
In terms of production policy, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have released expectations for increased production. On March 1st, eight major OPEC member countries held an online meeting and reached an agreement to increase production by 206000 barrels per day starting from April to meet the peak demand for summer oil. This decision broke the production halt in the first quarter of 2026. Market participants generally believe that OPEC’s remaining production capacity space is already very limited. Except for Saudi Arabia, all OPEC oil producing countries are basically in a state of full capacity production. The actual effect of this production increase plan on easing the current supply shortage is questionable, and it is difficult to hedge the risk of supply interruption caused by the Middle East conflict.
Future prospects
The market has significant differences in the future trend of oil prices, but it is generally believed that short-term domestic margin risks will become the core logic of oil price operation, while long-term trends depend on the duration of conflicts and the degree of supply damage.
Major institutions have released opinions one after another: JPMorgan Chase pointed out that if shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for three to four weeks, it may force Gulf oil producing countries to stop production, Brent crude oil prices may soar to over $100 per barrel, and most oil producing countries can only maintain oil production for about 25 days, after which they will face mandatory production cuts; Citigroup expects Brent crude oil prices to remain in the range of $80 to $90 per barrel for the next week, and is expected to fall back to $70 per barrel if the situation eases; Goldman Sachs estimates that the current crude oil price already includes a real-time risk premium of $18 per barrel. If only half of the crude oil transportation in the Strait of Hormuz is interrupted for a month, this premium will drop to $4; Some institutions also believe that if the oil tanker route fails to recover quickly, oil prices may exceed $100 per barrel.
According to crude oil analysts from Shengyi Society, the key factors in this situation are the specific magnitude and duration of supply damage, as well as changes in policies in the later stages, including OPEC production adjustments and the release of reserve inventories by the United States. If the Middle East conflict persists for a long time, it will not only lead to a continuous rise in oil prices, but also exacerbate global inflationary pressures, thereby dragging down global economic growth. In the future, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the progress of the US Iran incident, the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz, and the actual implementation effect of OPEC’s production increase plan.