1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), on November 10, the mainstream average price of domestic PVC was 7512.5 yuan / ton, up 1.18% compared with the previous day, 5.92% higher than the beginning of the month, 11.42% higher than the same period last year, and 12.62% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In November, the PVC market continued to improve, the price was significantly higher than the same period last year, and still maintained an upward trend. On the 10th, PVC was red again, and the futures price reached a new high, which led to the rise of spot market price. Most enterprises rose 50-150 yuan, and there were two price adjustments. The quotation was chaotic. The low-end price of the market was not much, which was generally around 7500 yuan / ton, and had strong bullish sentiment. At present, the supply of PVC spot market is still tight, there are not many deliveries in the market, the social inventory is still low, domestic and foreign trade demand is picking up, raw material calcium carbide price is rising, and futures are boosting. The supporting force of multiple favorable factors is not reduced, the trend of PVC is strong, the sales pressure of merchants is not under pressure, and the mentality of raising price is obvious. However, the psychological resistance of downstream is becoming stronger, and some enterprises’ starting load is reduced, and the purchasing enthusiasm is lower Down, just need replenishment. On the whole, the current situation of supply less than demand continues, all favorable factors remain unchanged, supporting the price of PVC to continue to rise. With the new production capacity in the future and the resumption of maintenance enterprises in the early stage, the supply and demand side may be corrected. Therefore, the upward space of PVC is limited, and it is expected that the high-level market will be mainly shaken.

In terms of spot goods, domestic pvc5 type tourmaline’s mainstream quotation range is 7300-7700 yuan / ton. In East China, the mainstream of pvc5 type tourmaline is around 7550-7650 yuan / ton; in Hebei Province, 7380-7420 yuan / ton is delivered; the price of Inner Mongolia is increased by 7160-7200 yuan / ton, including tax; the price of Hangzhou is 7520-7700 yuan / ton; the price of Changzhou is 7580-7680 yuan / ton, and the price is rising The mainstream price is 7500-7620 yuan / ton, and the price is rising; the quotations from various places are rising.

In terms of futures, the futures price of PVC futures has risen sharply and reached a new high recently. On the 10th, the main contract of PVC futures 2101 opened at 7350 yuan / ton and closed at 7050 yuan / ton. Yesterday, the settlement price was 7220 yuan / ton, down 2.35%. The trading range was 7030-7375 yuan / ton, with 373395 transactions and 284541 positions.

Regional variety technology November 10

Changzhou PVC calcium carbide method 7580-7680 yuan / ton

Guangzhou PVC calcium carbide process 7500-7620 yuan / ton

Hebei PVC calcium carbide process 7380-7420 yuan / ton

Hangzhou PVC calcium carbide process 7520-7700 yuan / ton

Upstream crude oil, on November 9, the US WTI crude oil futures market price rose sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at $40.29/barrel, up $3.15 or 8.48%. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at 42.40 US dollars / barrel, up 2.95 US dollars or 7.48%. Oil prices surged on Monday, the biggest one-day gain in nearly five months.

Ethylene, the recent external ethylene market is on the rise. On November 9, FD northwest Europe quoted $709-720 / T, down $4 / T; CIF northwest Europe quoted $698-707 / T, down $9 / T; CFR Northeast Asia quoted 775-785 USD / T, up 10 USD / T, CFR Southeast Asia quoted 730-740 USD / T; FD US Gulf quoted 385-397 USD / T, up 5 USD / T, affected by upstream crude oil price rise, ethylene market may rise in the later stage Mainly.

Calcium carbide, in the middle of November, calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly and rose mainly. The price of raw materials in the upstream rose slightly, which supported the price of calcium carbide better. The shortage of PVC in the downstream was serious and the market rose sharply. The downstream customers had a good enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. Later market forecast that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly in mid November.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of the business club believe that the current futures price is rising, the spot market is following the rise, while the social inventory is still at a low level, the spot shortage situation is difficult to change in a short time, the merchants have strong willingness to support the price, and all the favorable factors are not reduced, which support the continuous rise of PVC price, but the downstream psychological resistance is gradually strong, and the purchasing enthusiasm is declining. It is expected that the PVC price trend will be relatively strong and high in the short term Consolidation based, local or will be a small callback.

1、 Price trend

The factory price of octanol in Shandong Province rose this week. This week, the average price of octanol mainstream factory quotation in Shandong increased from 7283.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7366.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1.14%, 4.00% compared with the same period last year. Overall, octanol prices rose this week, with the octanol commodity index of 54.17 on November 6.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the main octanol manufacturer’s factory quotation in Shandong Province rose this week: Jianlan Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 7350 yuan / ton of octanol at the end of this week, 50 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; lihuayi’s offer of octanol was 7350 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was 150 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng’s offer of octanol was 7400 yuan / ton this weekend, which was higher than that at the beginning of the week 50 yuan / ton.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of octanol rose this week, with the quotation rising from 6755.55 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6942.82 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 2.77%, and a decrease of 5.33% compared with the same period last year. Upstream raw material market price rise, affected by the supply and demand side, has a positive impact on the price of octanol.

Octanol downstream market, DOP factory price rose this week. DOP’s offer rose from 7450.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7600.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 2.01% and 2.24% compared with the same period last year. Downstream DOP prices rose, downstream customers were more enthusiastic about octanol procurement, octanol demand was general, and later market operators were more likely to wait for DOP trend.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of November, the market trend of octanol in Shandong Province may fluctuate slightly. The upstream propylene market rose, the raw material support was strong, the downstream DOP market also rose slightly, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was high, the octanol supply was normal. Octanol analysts believe that: in mid November, under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects, the octanol market in Shandong may fluctuate and rise slightly.

1、 Market price trend chart of paraformaldehyde

Polyoxymethylene price curve

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of paraformaldehyde at the beginning of the week was 4566 yuan / ton, and that at the weekend was 4600 yuan / ton, with an increase of 0.73%.

2、 Market analysis

Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4600 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 9000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4500 yuan / ton, which was 100 yuan / ton higher than last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 10000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4700 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. Paraformaldehyde market is OK, most manufacturers offer stable prices.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong Province was 1882 yuan / ton on November 1, and 1940 yuan / ton on November 4 in Shandong Province. The price cycle increased by 3.05% and the price rose by 8.08% month on month.

3、 Future forecast

POM analysts believe that: by the raw material methanol boost, polyoxymethylene prices will rise slightly.

Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the domestic PA66 market continued its peak season trend at the beginning of November, and the increase of various models of products was relatively large. As of November 6, the average price quoted by PA66 medium viscosity injection molding class sample enterprises of business agency was about 24200 yuan / ton, which was 6.84% higher than the average price level at the beginning of the month.

On the upstream side of PA66, the domestic adipic acid continues to rise, and the increase is increasingly fierce. The strong rising trend has also brought the power of speculation, and the price increase of dealers has even appeared a certain degree of confusion. According to the monitoring of business agency, the current quotation range of adipic acid in the market is 7200-7700 yuan / ton, which has increased by 500 yuan / ton compared with the end of October. The main advantage of the rise is the shortage of supply. From the perspective of market supply, the operating rate of adipic acid manufacturers has been declining since last month, and there is no lack of equipment maintenance in large factories. At present, the operating rate is about 70%. The situation of supply shortage has been exacerbated in November. Superimposed on the surge in upstream costs, the price of pure benzene continued to rise. With winter approaching, the downstream operating rate may decline, and due to the influence of environmental protection and other factors, adipic acid will continue to push up, with limited space.

In November, the upstream adipic acid on the cost side of PA66 increased, PA66 market continued to rise in the peak season, more than the peak season. The situation of spot shortage in the domestic spot market remains unchanged, and some domestic factories are still stopping for maintenance. At present, the operating rate of PA66 in China is maintained at about 50%, while the operating rate of Zhejiang Huafeng and foreign NVIDIA is relatively low. Moreover, the inventory of polymerization plant and social inventory are generally low, and due to the priority to meet the supply of core old customers, on-site supply may be even more tight than expected. In addition, last month, BASF, DuPont, landic and other major international manufacturers released price increase news. At present, the price of PA66 products and related raw materials in the industrial chain is rising. The replenishment operation of downstream factories is biased towards rigid demand, but there is a certain basis for the current consumption of PA66, and the purchase and sales volume of home appliances and automobile industries are obviously better, resulting in the passive follow-up of factories, and the transaction focus of PA66 market continues to rise.

Business agency analysts believe: PA66 in early November, the domestic market trend is strong. The current upward trend of upstream products is positive, and the pressure of PA66 production cost is increasing. Downstream factory procurement follow-up on demand, on-site supply continues to be tight pattern, overseas rising market is better than domestic PA66 prices. At present, PA66 is in the cost side support, tight supply and overseas market. It is expected that the PA66 market will continue to be strong in the short term. It is suggested that we should pay close attention to the influence of environmental protection policies on plasticizing production in the near future.

Jiangsu Xuzhou Petroleum Branch of Sinopec Sales Co., Ltd. stopped selling ethanol gasoline. Recently, it caused a lot of vibration in the industry, and also caused hot discussion outside the industry. In fact, since its birth, ethanol gasoline has enjoyed a “high degree of market attention” which is not commensurate with its “low market share”. At a time when food and energy security issues are widely concerned, the release of the “stop sale” notice directly touched the already sensitive nerves of the public, and once again exposed the short board of “grain as the main raw material” in the biofuel ethanol industry. At this critical moment, it is necessary to re-examine the industry development ideas and optimize the technical route based on the long-term adjustment.

Bioenergy represented by biofuel ethanol is a national strategic emerging industry. The promotion of ethanol gasoline for vehicles is not only in line with the strategic direction of building a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient modern energy system, but also helps to solve the burning problem of agricultural and forestry wastes such as straw, improve the atmospheric environmental quality, solve the problem of “aged grain”, improve the level of food quality and safety, and help to improve the quality and safety of grain It can not only promote farmers to open up new channels to increase income, but also help to improve the comprehensive utilization of agricultural and forestry waste resources and promote the development of advanced Bioenergy Industry. In other words, the promotion of ethanol gasoline has important practical significance and strategic value.

In addition, the conditions for the development of ethanol gasoline are complete: the strategy of green and low-carbon energy transformation has created unprecedented development space for the development of ethanol gasoline industry; the annual available straw and forestry waste in China exceeds 400 million tons, which provides abundant raw material basis for the sustainable development of the industry; the industry development of more than 20 years has cultivated and reserved a total of 1 A large number of professional and technical personnel provide a solid intellectual guarantee for the transformation and upgrading of the industry.

But the weakness of ethanol gasoline industry is also obvious. The production structure of “87% raw material source is corn” is the sword of Damocles hanging on the head of the industry, and also the “seven inch” of China’s biofuel ethanol industry.

With a large population in China, the importance of food security cannot be overemphasized. Therefore, the development of biofuel ethanol cannot and should not be based on a high proportion of food raw materials. However, the reality is that the current global mature biofuel ethanol production technology takes corn, wheat, rice and other food crops as the main raw materials. “Competing with people for food” and “competing with grain for land” are always the problems that cannot be avoided in the development of the industry.

one can’t make bricks without straw. At present, the production and use of ethanol gasoline is not only an energy problem, but also a food security problem. Without the support of food security, no matter how advanced the technology is and how grand the planning is, it will be water without source and a tree without roots, and the industry development will not be sustainable.

Poverty leads to change, and change leads to adaptation. In order to achieve large-scale and sustainable development, the industry must find a new way, from “food” to “non food”. That is to start a new stove, turn to rich resources of corn straw, hay, leaves and other kinds of plant fiber materials, reduce the dependence on food crops. Today, the technology of ethanol preparation from grain raw materials has been highly commercialized. However, the road of technology upgrading of “another gateway” is doomed to be difficult, but it has to be taken in the long run.

It is worth mentioning that China has already made some beneficial explorations in this respect. In 2001, in order to solve the problem of processing a large number of “aged grain”, China officially launched the pilot project of biofuel ethanol. However, after five years of rapid development, “competing for grain” has become a major problem. Therefore, since 2006, China has suspended the development of fuel ethanol based on grain as the basic raw material, and has successively built several non grain fuel ethanol demonstration stations in Guangxi, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Henan and other places Project or industrialization device, and such projects have the conditions of industrialization demonstration.

Practical work is the key. The core problem of fuel ethanol is never “whether to develop” but “how to develop”. “Stop selling” is just a small twists and turns in the development of the industry, so we should not exaggerate its negative impact by generalizing it. At the same time, “stop selling” also rings a warning bell for the industry, and the thinking of taking precautions is indispensable. The technical innovation and application practice of “non grain fuel ethanol” should be the next focus of the industry, enterprises and competent departments. Only in this way can the development of ethanol gasoline be decoupled from grain, thus helping to realize the “double security” of food and energy.

In recent years, the domestic ethanol market continued to rise. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the domestic ethanol market price was 6500 yuan / ton on October 14, and 6862 yuan / ton on November 4, with an increase of 5.58% during the period, 9.15% on a month on month basis, and 26.61% on a year-on-year basis. The main reasons are as follows: raw material corn fell slightly, raw material procurement in Northeast China was slightly difficult, enterprises ordered delivery, individual stocks existed, and downstream liquor and chemical industry just needed to purchase.

Quotation of 95% ethanol of some Shandong ethanol production enterprises:

Enterprise price (yuan / ton) device dynamic

Shandong Yusheng / 50000 T / a cassava alcohol plant shut down

Shandong Wudi Runsheng / 50000 T / a cassava alcohol plant shut down

Shandong fulichun normal 6650 cassava ethanol plant

Shandong Chengguang general grade 6850/

Shandong Chengguang no water 7450/

On the one hand, the market of raw corn fell slightly, on the other hand, the international epidemic situation is still severe, some people in the industry are optimistic about export, and the domestic epidemic prevention and control may also trigger a new round of demand. Business agency ethanol analysts predict that this week’s domestic ethanol market high volatility.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, aniline continued to rise in the first half of October, and stabilized the price in the second half of the month. On October 1, the price of aniline in Shandong was 5100-5300 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 5500-5600 yuan / ton; on October 31, the price of aniline in Shandong was 6600-6700 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 6700-6800 yuan / ton, with an average monthly increase of 25.79%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Raw materials, pure benzene: meet the National Day in early October, the price of pure benzene is stable. Return after the festival, driven by the downstream styrene pull up, prices rose rapidly. Near the end of the month, crude oil plummeted, combined with the weak fundamentals of pure benzene itself, the price fell weakly. This month, Sinopec North China increased 300 yuan / ton, and other regions increased 150 yuan / ton. On October 1, the listed price of pure benzene was 3000-3450 yuan / ton (average price was 3380 yuan / ton), and on October 31, it was 3350-3650 yuan / ton (average price was 3575 yuan / ton), with an increase of 5.77% this month.

Nitric acid: entered the “gold nine silver ten”, nitric acid market was better, nitric acid continued to rise in October. On October 1, the price of nitric acid in East China was 1516.67 yuan / ton and 1616.67 yuan / ton on October 31, up 100 yuan / ton or 6.59% compared with the beginning of the month.

The demand for MDI, auxiliaries and other products in the downstream of “Jinjiu Yinshi” aniline recovered, the profit margin expanded, and the operating rate rose, which supported the demand for aniline. During the month, some enterprises mainly supplied export and contract orders, and the spot volume was less, and the price rose rapidly. With the restart of a aniline plant in Jinling Dawang, the market supply increased and the shortage of aniline was relieved, and the price began to stabilize.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of raw materials, the port pressure of pure benzene remains unchanged, and the process of de stocking is slow. In addition, the price difference between internal and external plates is large, and the import pressure is increasing. However, in November, the downstream is expected to have new demand, which has a certain support for the price of pure benzene, and the pure benzene has a certain resistance to fall.

Dongying Huatai began maintenance at the end of the month, but Tianji device is expected to restart in early November, and the overall supply side has little change. Pay attention to the price trend of raw materials and maintenance plan of downstream enterprises. Aniline prices are expected to be strong in November.

Trade name: potassium chloride

Latest price (November 2): 1950.00 yuan / ton

On November 2, the mixed price of potassium chloride in Qinghai was temporarily stable, which was in line with the quotation on October 30. At present, the main contradiction in the market is that the supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream purchasing is mainly required, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

In the near future, the price of potassium chloride in Qinghai area may fluctuate slightly, and the quotation is about 1900-2000 yuan / ton.

Adipic acid market trend chart

According to the data from the large list of business associations, the domestic adipic acid market rose in October, which is also the end of the tepid market for six months since April. According to the data monitored by the business agency, adipic acid in East China rose by 5.14% in the whole month, mainly due to the sharp rise in upstream costs, the continuous rise of pure benzene price, and the improvement of downstream PA66 market. According to the monitoring of business agency, the current quotation range of adipic acid is 6800-7200 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of market supply, the operating rate of adipic acid manufacturers remained stable in October, about 80% or more. The market supply was relatively sufficient, and the manufacturers’ inventory pressure was large. Dealers normally take goods, although Jinjiu did not make efforts, but silver ten adipic acid price appeared small Yangchun market.

In terms of cost, the upstream crude oil price mainly maintained the range adjustment, and the upward rush was weak. Especially at the end of the month, affected by the overseas epidemic situation, the price of pure benzene rose sharply this month, with an increase of more than 10% in the second half of October. The pressure of cost (as shown in the figure above) forced the price of adipic acid to rise.

Market trend of pure benzene

In terms of downstream demand, the terminal performance improved slightly. Although the chemical industry recovered steadily in the late stage of the epidemic, the operating rate of downstream factories increased slightly. In addition, rigid consumption of polyurethane in the downstream remained stable, and the market of PA66 also rose, with a monthly increase of 7.99%, as shown in the figure above.

In the later stage, it seems that the market of adipic acid is mainly driven by the upstream and downstream, and whether the price of adipic acid can rise in the later period depends on whether the demand can keep up with it. However, at present, with the approaching of winter, the downstream operating rate may decline, and the influence of environmental protection and other factors will make it difficult for adipic acid to have a big market, and it is unlikely that adipic acid will continue to rise.