1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, aniline continued to rise in the first half of October, and stabilized the price in the second half of the month. On October 1, the price of aniline in Shandong was 5100-5300 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 5500-5600 yuan / ton; on October 31, the price of aniline in Shandong was 6600-6700 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 6700-6800 yuan / ton, with an average monthly increase of 25.79%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Raw materials, pure benzene: meet the National Day in early October, the price of pure benzene is stable. Return after the festival, driven by the downstream styrene pull up, prices rose rapidly. Near the end of the month, crude oil plummeted, combined with the weak fundamentals of pure benzene itself, the price fell weakly. This month, Sinopec North China increased 300 yuan / ton, and other regions increased 150 yuan / ton. On October 1, the listed price of pure benzene was 3000-3450 yuan / ton (average price was 3380 yuan / ton), and on October 31, it was 3350-3650 yuan / ton (average price was 3575 yuan / ton), with an increase of 5.77% this month.

Nitric acid: entered the “gold nine silver ten”, nitric acid market was better, nitric acid continued to rise in October. On October 1, the price of nitric acid in East China was 1516.67 yuan / ton and 1616.67 yuan / ton on October 31, up 100 yuan / ton or 6.59% compared with the beginning of the month.

The demand for MDI, auxiliaries and other products in the downstream of “Jinjiu Yinshi” aniline recovered, the profit margin expanded, and the operating rate rose, which supported the demand for aniline. During the month, some enterprises mainly supplied export and contract orders, and the spot volume was less, and the price rose rapidly. With the restart of a aniline plant in Jinling Dawang, the market supply increased and the shortage of aniline was relieved, and the price began to stabilize.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of raw materials, the port pressure of pure benzene remains unchanged, and the process of de stocking is slow. In addition, the price difference between internal and external plates is large, and the import pressure is increasing. However, in November, the downstream is expected to have new demand, which has a certain support for the price of pure benzene, and the pure benzene has a certain resistance to fall.

Dongying Huatai began maintenance at the end of the month, but Tianji device is expected to restart in early November, and the overall supply side has little change. Pay attention to the price trend of raw materials and maintenance plan of downstream enterprises. Aniline prices are expected to be strong in November.