1、 Price trend

 

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According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), on November 10, the mainstream average price of domestic PVC was 7512.5 yuan / ton, up 1.18% compared with the previous day, 5.92% higher than the beginning of the month, 11.42% higher than the same period last year, and 12.62% higher than the same period last year.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

In November, the PVC market continued to improve, the price was significantly higher than the same period last year, and still maintained an upward trend. On the 10th, PVC was red again, and the futures price reached a new high, which led to the rise of spot market price. Most enterprises rose 50-150 yuan, and there were two price adjustments. The quotation was chaotic. The low-end price of the market was not much, which was generally around 7500 yuan / ton, and had strong bullish sentiment. At present, the supply of PVC spot market is still tight, there are not many deliveries in the market, the social inventory is still low, domestic and foreign trade demand is picking up, raw material calcium carbide price is rising, and futures are boosting. The supporting force of multiple favorable factors is not reduced, the trend of PVC is strong, the sales pressure of merchants is not under pressure, and the mentality of raising price is obvious. However, the psychological resistance of downstream is becoming stronger, and some enterprises’ starting load is reduced, and the purchasing enthusiasm is lower Down, just need replenishment. On the whole, the current situation of supply less than demand continues, all favorable factors remain unchanged, supporting the price of PVC to continue to rise. With the new production capacity in the future and the resumption of maintenance enterprises in the early stage, the supply and demand side may be corrected. Therefore, the upward space of PVC is limited, and it is expected that the high-level market will be mainly shaken.

 

In terms of spot goods, domestic pvc5 type tourmaline’s mainstream quotation range is 7300-7700 yuan / ton. In East China, the mainstream of pvc5 type tourmaline is around 7550-7650 yuan / ton; in Hebei Province, 7380-7420 yuan / ton is delivered; the price of Inner Mongolia is increased by 7160-7200 yuan / ton, including tax; the price of Hangzhou is 7520-7700 yuan / ton; the price of Changzhou is 7580-7680 yuan / ton, and the price is rising The mainstream price is 7500-7620 yuan / ton, and the price is rising; the quotations from various places are rising.

 

In terms of futures, the futures price of PVC futures has risen sharply and reached a new high recently. On the 10th, the main contract of PVC futures 2101 opened at 7350 yuan / ton and closed at 7050 yuan / ton. Yesterday, the settlement price was 7220 yuan / ton, down 2.35%. The trading range was 7030-7375 yuan / ton, with 373395 transactions and 284541 positions.

 

Regional variety technology November 10

Changzhou PVC calcium carbide method 7580-7680 yuan / ton

Guangzhou PVC calcium carbide process 7500-7620 yuan / ton

Hebei PVC calcium carbide process 7380-7420 yuan / ton

Hangzhou PVC calcium carbide process 7520-7700 yuan / ton

 

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Upstream crude oil, on November 9, the US WTI crude oil futures market price rose sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at $40.29/barrel, up $3.15 or 8.48%. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at 42.40 US dollars / barrel, up 2.95 US dollars or 7.48%. Oil prices surged on Monday, the biggest one-day gain in nearly five months.

 

Ethylene, the recent external ethylene market is on the rise. On November 9, FD northwest Europe quoted $709-720 / T, down $4 / T; CIF northwest Europe quoted $698-707 / T, down $9 / T; CFR Northeast Asia quoted 775-785 USD / T, up 10 USD / T, CFR Southeast Asia quoted 730-740 USD / T; FD US Gulf quoted 385-397 USD / T, up 5 USD / T, affected by upstream crude oil price rise, ethylene market may rise in the later stage Mainly.

 

Calcium carbide, in the middle of November, calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly and rose mainly. The price of raw materials in the upstream rose slightly, which supported the price of calcium carbide better. The shortage of PVC in the downstream was serious and the market rose sharply. The downstream customers had a good enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. Later market forecast that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly in mid November.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

PVC analysts of the business club believe that the current futures price is rising, the spot market is following the rise, while the social inventory is still at a low level, the spot shortage situation is difficult to change in a short time, the merchants have strong willingness to support the price, and all the favorable factors are not reduced, which support the continuous rise of PVC price, but the downstream psychological resistance is gradually strong, and the purchasing enthusiasm is declining. It is expected that the PVC price trend will be relatively strong and high in the short term Consolidation based, local or will be a small callback.

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