According to the data monitored by the business association, the average price of domestic rubber grade white carbon black as of June 18 was 4566.67 yuan / ton. This week, the domestic rubber grade white carbon black rose steadily, 3.01% higher than the same period last week, or 130 yuan / ton.

The domestic rubber grade high-quality product white carbon black has a steady rise and smooth operation. White carbon black plays an important role in the manufacturing field of automobile tires. As we all know, tires have the properties of wear resistance, safety, environmental protection and oil cleaning. In 1992, Michelin, France, developed the world’s first “green tire” filled with a large number of white carbon black, which significantly improves the tire’s wet and skid resistance and opens up wheels In 2020, due to the impact of public events, the domestic transportation vehicles dropped significantly and recovered slowly. The domestic market of silica was depressed. There were 23 gas silicon production enterprises in China. The overall operating rate was affected. Some enterprises did not shut down. The inventory of start-up enterprises was increasing and the transaction atmosphere was flat. In the first half of 2020, the domestic rubber grade silica market was depressed Black shows a weak operation, gas silicon enterprises have excess capacity, fierce competition, and the transaction price is basically kept below the cost line, which has seriously hit the enterprises. At present, the white carbon black market is still recovering slowly.

The overall operation of upstream hydrochloric acid is stable this week, and the transaction atmosphere is general. The downstream just needs to purchase. The main quotation range is 350-420 yuan / ton. On June 17, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 84.21, which was the same as yesterday, down 15.79% from the highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-12), and up 368.35% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 05, 2012. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

On June 17, the chemical industry index was 674 points, down 1 point compared with yesterday, 33.66% compared with 1016 points (2012-03-13), the highest point in the cycle, and 12.71% higher than 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

White carbon black analyst of business club thinks: the price of white carbon black cannot be boosted in the short term, and the market situation is slowly recovering. (the above prices are provided by the major manufacturers of silica all over the country and analyzed by the business silica analysts for reference only. For more details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation.)

Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the market performance of cobalt in June was poor, and the price of cobalt fell in shock. Recently, the price of cobalt ushered in three consecutive falls. As of June 16, the price of cobalt was 252500.00 yuan / ton, down 1.24% compared with the average price of 255666.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; after June 11, the price of cobalt fell three times, down 1.62% compared with that of 256666.67 yuan / ton on June 16. Cobalt Market in June underperformed, the recent cobalt price is ushered in three consecutive falls.

Mobile market

According to the data of China Academy of information and communication, in May 2020, the total shipment volume of domestic mobile phone market was 33.759 million, down 11.8% year on year; from January to may, the total shipment volume of domestic mobile phone market was 124 million, down 18.0% year on year. It can be seen from the data that in 2020, the mobile phone sales volume fell sharply compared with the same period last year, and the demand for cobalt in the mobile phone market fell significantly. Although the mobile phone market recovered in April, the market fell sharply in May, and the mobile phone sales volume fell in May compared with the same period last year. The mobile phone market sales are poor, which is bad for the cobalt market, and the cobalt price is under great pressure.

According to the data of China Academy of information and communications, in May 2020, the domestic market’s 5g mobile phone shipments reached 1564300, accounting for 46.3% of the same period’s mobile phone shipments; from January to may, the domestic market’s 5g mobile phone cumulative shipments reached 46084000, accounting for 37.0%. 5g mobile phone is highly expected by the market and is expected to become a new demand point of the market. 5g mobile phones also did well in April and may. Sales fell in May, but the market share of 5g mobile phones rose sharply, and the expectation of mobile phone market fell. However, the strong performance of 5g mobile phones still has a certain positive stimulus to cobalt market.

New energy vehicle market

According to the statistics of China Automobile Industry Association, in May 2020, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 84000 and 82000 respectively, with a growth rate of 3.5% and 12.2% on a month on month basis, down 25.8% and 23.5% on a year-on-year basis. From January to may, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 295000 and 289000, down 39.7% and 38.7% year-on-year respectively, 5.1% and 4.7% lower than that from January to April. Affected by the decline of subsidies, the production and sales of new energy vehicles fell significantly year-on-year. Although compared with the previous month, the production and sales of domestic new energy vehicle market have recovered, the production and sales of 2020 still fell sharply year-on-year, and the overall production and sales of new energy vehicle market still fell, which was lower than the market expectation, and was negative for cobalt market. However, with the recovery of the new energy vehicle market, the benefits to the cobalt market are strengthened, and the new energy vehicle market is more favorable to the future cobalt market.

International market cobalt price

From the trend chart of cobalt price in LME market, it can be seen that the international cobalt price has fallen recently, which is bearish to the cobalt market. The cobalt market has weakened, which is bad for the domestic cobalt market.

Cobalt stock in Wuxi Market

From the cobalt inventory table of Wuxi stainless steel market, it can be seen that since the end of May, the stock of cobalt market has increased substantially and the supply of cobalt market is sufficient. With the successive arrival of international cobalt ore in June, the supply of cobalt market may exceed the demand again and the price of cobalt is relatively negative.

Market Overview

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst of business agency, recently the demand of cobalt market is not good. The sales volume of mobile phones and new energy vehicles all declined significantly in May, and the demand for cobalt market declined significantly, causing the price of cobalt to drop three times in a row. However, in the long run, although the production and sales of new energy vehicles have declined significantly, the overall market demand is rising slowly, which is good for the future cobalt Market; the overall performance of the mobile phone market is poor, but the 5g mobile phone is good, which is still good for the future cobalt market. The stock of cobalt in Wuxi market has increased significantly, which has a negative impact on the price of cobalt, and the international cobalt ore that can’t arrive at the port due to the epidemic has been arriving in succession. The oversupply of domestic cobalt market is increasing, which has a negative impact on cobalt market. However, at this stage, cobalt mining is limited, the risk of excess supply of cobalt market is small, labor costs such as transportation are increasing, cobalt costs are increasing, and the space for cobalt price to fall is limited. In a word, the demand of cobalt market is not good in the near future, and the rising power of cobalt market is insufficient, so the rising of cobalt market is far away; in the future, the favorable stimulus of cobalt market is continuous, the demand of cobalt market is still optimistic, and there is still room for the rising of cobalt Market; and affected by the cost, the falling space of cobalt price is not big, and the overall expectation is that the future market of cobalt market will fluctuate and maintain stability.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of June 16, the average price of lithium iron phosphate, a high-quality power product in China, was 37000.00 yuan / ton. The market was in stable operation, with little price change, and the demand for procurement was strong.

The market price range of lithium iron phosphate power type is 35000-37000 yuan / ton, with little price change and stable operation. The advantage of lithium iron phosphate battery is low cost, because the price of cobalt is relatively expensive. New energy vehicle enterprises have been hoping to reduce the use of cobalt to reduce the cost. With the progress of technology, the battery density of lithium iron phosphate battery is gradually improving, and it is pulled again with the ternary battery Near the gap, at present, the lithium iron phosphate battery does not output ternary battery technically, but the price is low. In the long run, the market of lithium iron phosphate is very broad. At present, Guangdong Guanghua Technology Co., Ltd. is 37000 yuan / ton, Foshan Defang Nano Technology Co., Ltd. is 37000 yuan / ton, and beitrei new energy materials Co., Ltd. is 37000 yuan / ton

The upstream hydrochloric acid market operates stably as a whole. At present, the quotation of Taiyuan kunshengda hydrochloric acid is 420 yuan / ton, Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid is 300 yuan / ton, Wenshui synthetic hydrochloric acid is 260 yuan / ton at the weekend, and Jinan Yuanfei hydrochloric acid is 450 yuan / ton at the weekend. The overall price has little change, and the purchase is just needed, and the transaction atmosphere is flat

On June 15, the chemical industry index was 676, down 2 points from yesterday, 33.46% from 1016 (2012-03-13), the highest point in the cycle, and 13.04% from 598, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

According to the analyst of life3po4 of business association, the recovery of life3po4 market is slow in the short term, but with the development of society, in the long run, life3po4 is expected to become the mainstream product of social application. (the above prices are provided by the major manufacturers of lithium iron phosphate all over the country and analyzed by the analysts of lithium iron phosphate in the business. For reference only, please contact the relevant manufacturers for more details.)

1、 Price trend

As of June 12th, the average price of maleic anhydride in China was 6466 yuan / ton (including tax), and it operated steadily in the week, a decrease of 0.51% compared with the average price of 6500 yuan / ton in the same period of last month, according to the data of business society.

On June 12, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 60.92, which was the same as yesterday, down 50.74% from 123.67 (December 26, 2017), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.03% from 51.18, the lowest point on April 12, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the domestic market price of maleic anhydride is in a wait-and-see situation after falling. The downstream market just needs to be soft. The long-term low price of maleic anhydride has not stimulated the market demand. The raw materials of benzene process are strong, the cost surface is acceptable, and the supply of solid anhydride has declined, which has certain support for the price of maleic anhydride.

Industry chain: the raw material hydrobenzene market is high and strong, the product price continues to rise, and the downstream market demand is stable, but the oil price will fall or cause certain fluctuations in the market; the downstream unsaturated resin will be shaken and sorted out, and the demand end may weaken with the arrival of the rainy season.

3、 Future forecast

According to the maleic anhydride product analyst of the business association, the downstream demand of maleic anhydride market is not good at present, and there is no sign of improvement. The supply of liquid anhydrides is acceptable, and the industry is still short-sighted. However, the cost performance of benzene process is relatively strong, and the position of solid anhydrides has declined to a certain extent, and it is expected to be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on June 12, the average price of R22 mainstream manufacturers was 15600 yuan / ton, up 3.31% from the beginning of the week (8 days), up 5.17% from the beginning of June, down 14.13% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

R22 prices in the refrigerant market rose this week. The price of hydrofluoric acid at the raw material end has been raised, the cost end has certain support, the terminal air-conditioning, after-sales market demand has been gradually increased, adding that the supply of goods in the yard has been tightened, and the center of gravity of the offer of the goods holder has moved up. The manufacturer is subject to quota, the cost and demand are good and interwoven, and the price is firm. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of June 12, the average price of refrigerant R22 was around 15600 yuan / ton, and the market price was mostly around 15000 yuan / ton – 17000 yuan / ton, which was discussed in detail.

Upstream, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers this week is 8000-9000 yuan / ton, and the factory price of on-site merchants is temporarily stable. The domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers have a general operating rate, and the on-site supply of goods is normal, driven by the rising price of fluorite. However, the demand of downstream refrigerant industry is poor, and on-site procurement is the main thing. It is expected that the on-site price will continue to rise slightly in the later period. Affected by the poor downstream demand, the market price of trichloromethane in Shandong Province fell sharply. As of December 12, the market price of methane chloride in Shandong Province was temporarily stable. The mainstream price of dichloromethane market was 2200-2300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of trichloromethane market was about 1850 yuan / ton. It is expected that it will be vulnerable in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of business club, at present, the firm price of refrigerant R22 manufacturer is still the same, the supply is tight, and the cost side is good support. It is expected that the price trend of refrigerant R22 will be strong in the short term, which is easy to rise and hard to fall.

1、 Price trend

Price aspect: price aspect: the main quotation of GPPS is 8450-9100 yuan / ton, and the main quotation of hips is 8600-10100 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

PS market trading atmosphere is calm, business quotation is stable in part up. Many businesses are flexible, but the demand of downstream factories is low, and the actual transaction performance is average.

3、 Future forecast

PS market quotation is generally stable, and some PS petrochemical manufacturers raise the ex factory quotation, which is good for the spot market. However, the demand of downstream factories is not high, and the overall market transaction is not significantly improved. PS market is expected to follow up the trend of petrochemical, sorting out the main actor.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide:

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide product)

2、 Market analysis:

On June 10, the market of industrial grade lithium hydroxide was temporarily stable. The average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises as of June 10 was 55666.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of yesterday, down 2.34% compared with that of May 10, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. At present, the downstream demand is flat, the market is weak, and new orders in the domestic market are light. Today, the focus of lithium hydroxide negotiation is temporarily stable.

Upstream: the market of lithium carbonate is weak and stable in the near future. At present, the supply of lithium carbonate is sufficient, the downstream demand is weak, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, market trading is not smooth, and the price is under pressure. The average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 39900 yuan / ton as of June 9, down 4.55% compared with that of May 9, and the average price of battery lithium carbonate in East China was 44300 yuan / ton, down 4.11% compared with that of May 9, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. Weak demand transmission, and the market of lithium carbonate is under pressure. However, under the influence of production cost, it is expected that the market of lithium carbonate will be weak and stable in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on June 9, 2020, there are 20 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 2.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities with an increase are sulfur (11.38%), isopropanol (5.18%) and phenol (4.70%). There are 10 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and one kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are acetic anhydride (- 7.57%), chloroform (- 4.88%) and formic acid (- 2.59%). The average price of this day is 0.29%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to analysts of lithium hydroxide of business association, in the near future, the upstream lithium carbonate market is under pressure, the downstream demand is insufficient, and the cost and demand are double drag. It is expected that in the short term, the industrial lithium hydroxide Market will be dominated by weak operation.

According to a large amount of data monitoring from the business agency, the ethyl acetate Market in East China has been operating steadily after the adjustment of shocks. As of June 9, the average price of ethyl acetate in East China was 5400 yuan / ton, up 1.5% from the same period last month.

At present, the domestic ethyl acetate Market has started smoothly as a whole, and the industry’s operating rate has been maintained at about 50%. The enterprises are mainly engaged in consumption inventory contracts, and the downstream market just needs to purchase. In the short term, the trading is still flat, the demand side is difficult to effectively improve, and the support for ethyl acetate is insufficient, so the industry has many expectations.

In terms of raw materials, the acetic acid market tends to be stable in the near future, and the manufacturers gradually start to inquire after watching. With the equipment maintenance and the inventory consumption of manufacturers in East China, the market buying activity has increased. At present, the average price of acetic acid in East China is about 2166 yuan / ton; the ethanol manufacturers issue more orders, the inventory is not high, the price of raw materials corn remains high, and the production pressure of enterprises is large in the short term Under the favorable factors, the factory price remains stable, and under the positive attitude of small factory shipment, there is the possibility of weak consolidation.

On the international side, the supply and demand of international ethyl acetate are weak. Affected by the decline of raw material acetic acid, the price of ethyl acetate continues to decline, with European ports at about $900 / ton and North American ports at about $610 / ton.

According to the ethyl acetate analyst of the business association, the domestic ethyl acetate market started smoothly, with abundant spot supply. The downstream market just needs to be purchased. The trade in the industry is cautious, and the demand for ethyl acetate is limited. Due to the small inventory pressure of the enterprise at present, the space for price reduction is limited, and it is expected to run slightly and stably in a short time.

This week, the domestic methanol market rose in a narrow range. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, at the beginning of the week, the domestic methanol market price was 1605 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the domestic methanol market price was 1617 yuan / ton, up 0.78% in the week. Compared with the same period last month, the price fell 2.41% month on month and 27.53% year-on-year.

The domestic methanol price is at a historical low, the profits of coal and natural gas enterprises are not good, and the cost surface has certain support; the crude oil rose to a high in nearly three months, and the crude oil continued to rise under the expectation of the extension of the production reduction agreement, which is good for the methanol market. In the first ten days of June, the production of parking devices increased, the output of Baofeng 2.2 million tons and Anhui Linquan 300000 tons methanol new devices gradually increased in the later period, and the pressure of methanol supply was large; in the middle of June, the arrival plan of imported ships was relatively centralized, and the risk of high storage in the port was still accumulated; the traditional downstream industries such as methylaldehyde and dimethyl ether entered the off-season in the later period, and the demand was expected to decline.

Formaldehyde: this week, the domestic formaldehyde market is in a downturn. Methanol in the upper reaches of Anhui Province was affected by the low price of the port, and Anhui raw materials fell. Affected by this, the warehouse of formaldehyde products in the local area declined broadly; the price of methanol in the upper reaches of Shandong Province rose slightly within a week due to the rising freight, and the cost rose. With the arrival of local traditional wheat harvest season, some downstream board factories have wheat harvest holiday plans, and the terminal demand is weakened. Therefore, under the pressure of high cost, the delivery price of Shandong formaldehyde enterprises is reduced by a narrow margin. In addition, Feixian County, Shandong Province “delisting into the park” is carried out in an orderly manner, and it is expected that all formaldehyde plants will be completed before October 1, 2021.

Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market fell sharply this week. During the last weekend, Jiangsu Thorpe and Hebei Jiantao acetic acid plants were restored one after another, and traders were actively selling goods in the early stage, pushing the market transaction prices down one after another, and the market was passive and weak. At the beginning of the month, the downstream factories digested the contract volume and had no purchase intention for the spot acetic acid in the market, which led to the gradual increase of the stock quantity of the spot manufacturers and the passive continuous price reduction competition, driving the market transaction price down. In the early stage of South China market, the offer price was relatively firm, but the suppliers from Henan Province dropped a lot this week, and the low-cost sources successively competed for the South China market, resulting in the passive decline of local suppliers under the shipping pressure. And the local demand in South China is scattered and limited, and the local market continues to follow the decline passively under the competition of peripheral low price goods.

Dimethyl ether: this week, the domestic market for dimethyl ether was light, and the overall price was stable. There was no significant price adjustment in most of the weeks. At present, it is in the civil off-season, and the pressure of liquefied gas delivery is large. However, due to the continuous rise of crude oil price this week, the price of liquefied gas has formed a good support, and the civil price has increased significantly, but the terminal demand has slightly resisted, the transaction situation is general, and the market of dimethyl ether is limited.

In the later stage, 2.2 million tons of Baofeng and 300000 tons of new methanol plants in Linquan, Anhui will be started, and the production will continue to increase The pressure of alcohol supply will not be reduced; the domestic methanol import volume will remain at a high level in June, and the plan for the arrival of imported ships in the middle of the year is relatively concentrated, and there is still a risk of accumulation in the port’s high inventory; at present, most methanol Enterprises are in a loss state, with a strong attitude of holding prices, and there is limited space for further decline. The methanol analysts of the business association predict that the methanol market may maintain narrow range finishing in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

On June 5, the average ex factory price of oil-based glycol in North China was 3750 yuan / ton, up 67 yuan / ton or 1.81% from last week, according to the data of business agency.

On June 4, the market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3635 yuan / ton, up 70 yuan / ton or 1.96% compared with last Friday.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of June 4, the ethylene glycol inventory in the main reservoir area of East China was about 1312500 tons, an increase of 30200 tons, or 2.36%, compared with last Thursday, and 14900 tons, or 1.15%, compared with this Monday. Due to the continuous accumulation of inventory, the current inventory has been at the highest level in the same period of three years, causing greater pressure on the price rise.

In terms of shipment, this week, the main port of Zhangjiagang delivered about 6600 tons per day, and Taicang delivered about 6300 tons per day to the two warehouses. Recently, there is a downward trend in the delivery, which also has a negative impact on the price trend of glycol.

At present, the operating rate of glycol is about 52%, and that of polyester downstream is about 88%. Although both of them have increased, the operating rate of glycol is still at a low level, which will not cause pressure on the price in the short term.

In terms of devices, Xinjiang Tianye 200000 tons and China Science and technology refinery 500000 tons plan to start commissioning in late June. The impact of the new device on the supply side has a delayed effect, and it is expected to discharge materials normally next month.

In terms of import, according to data statistics, the cumulative import volume of glycol from January to May was 4.5396 million tons, 3% higher than that in 2019.

3、 Analysis and prediction

Due to the impact of overseas sources of goods, as well as the slow digestion of upstream and downstream, the inventory is high. It is expected that glycol will be difficult to get rid of the current situation of slow de stocking in the short term, market confidence will not be boosted, and prices will continue to maintain a volatile situation.