According to the data monitored by the business agency, the recent market price of domestic PP in late October was slightly volatile, and the offer was mainly sorted out. Spot prices of some brands have risen slightly. As of Monday, October 26, the main offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic producers and traders was around 8150 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0%, which was 1.66% higher than the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Analysis of the causes

The domestic (Shandong) market of propylene in the upstream of PP was settled smoothly in the first half of October, and it began to decline in the next half. As of October 26, the average price of sample enterprises was 7245.45 yuan / ton, and it is currently the lowest in the month. In the first half of the month, some propylene plants were overhauled, and the overall supply was tight. But there was a large amount of goods flowing in the northeast region last weekend, the pressure of manufacturers and dealers increased, and the operation was inclined to make profit delivery. Downstream continued a small number of low-cost procurement as the main, market investment atmosphere is weak. The price of crude oil in the far upstream fell over the weekend. At present, the regional supply volume of propylene is increased, but the consumption in the downstream is generally in conflict with high price goods. Previously, the price of propylene has been at a relatively high level, so it is expected that the price of propylene will be mainly reduced in the near future.

Propylene prices fell last weekend, and support for PP cost end was weakened. According to data monitored by the business agency, the PP market last week was stable. The demand of downstream after saving is at a high level, which supports spot price. In terms of inventory, the accumulated stock of petrochemical stocks in recent years is beyond expectations, but the inventory level is still in a moderate position in the season, and the port inventory is still low. The increase before the festival has gradually caused high pressure on PP in the near future. After the weekend, the price of drawing film, transparent film and pipe in petrochemical plant has been reduced slightly. The crude oil in the far upstream also has a small drop, which has certain suppression on the chemical industry chain. In terms of demand, the downstream inquiry mood is not high, and the focus of the investment is near the low price. The demand for the external market is mixed, while the demand for some automobile, bottle cap and closure parts industry is strong, while the membrane market has a general response. Analysts are worried about new capacity that could be released by the end of October or will have a shock on the PP market.

According to the data monitored by the business society, as of October 26, the main price of Z30S (fiber) of domestic producers and traders was about 8283.33 yuan / ton. The average price level of the month was 0.80% lower. The early high of the month appeared at 8383.33 yuan / ton on the 14th, and the overall operation was stable in the first half of the month. In recent years, the average starting rate of domestic PP producers has fallen by about 3% compared with that before the saving period, but in the short term, many enterprises have a resumption plan, and the expected start rate will rise slightly. Futures Volatility gradually increased, manufacturers have factory prices also reduced, the mentality of the industry is affected. Business operation is cautious, downstream side just need to prepare goods, mentality to wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that PP (fiber) will have weak disk surface in the near future.

The market of PP melt spray material was stable and small in mid October, and the overall confidence of domestic PP melt injection material market was still poor. According to the data monitored by the business society, PP (melt spray) material has been adjusted in shock since October. As of October 26, the average price of sample enterprises is about 14433.33 yuan / ton. At present, the epidemic situation in China is generally stable, and relevant experts have led to consolidate the epidemic prevention measures in recent years to prevent the rebound. Last week and this week, Shandong and Xinjiang are tentatively classified as medium and high-risk areas, and demand will follow, which is not yet reflected in spot prices. The overseas epidemic situation is still deteriorating, the non-woven fabric in medical protection applications continues to be sought after, and demand is expected to rise. But the competition of domestic anti epidemic products manufacturers is still strong, and the profit dilution of domestic main downstream enterprises of spray melting material is serious. At present, PP (melt injection) price is low, and it is expected that the melt spray material will be recovered due to the expansion of demand in the near future.

Post market forecast

PP analysts of business agency think: the domestic PP spot market is generally stable. The upstream propylene market was down at a high level, the price decreased, and the support for PP cost end was weakened. PP (drawing) supply volume is still not up, PP (fiber) market shock finishing, PP (melt spray) demand has a rise in expectations, prices are big, stable and small move. At present, the reduction of petrochemical inventory has slowed down and has a small increase. The futures trend amplitude is expanding today, which is not good for spot. Downstream factory stock situation is still OK, business mentality is affected, offer individual drop. The expected increase in the operating rate may lead to the gradual increase of spot supply of PP, and the market may be weak.

This week (10.19-23), the domestic polysilicon price continued to slow down, domestic market and imported material prices showed varying degrees of decline, according to the business agency monitoring, polysilicon fell by 3.4% this week. The main reason is that with more and more enterprises returning to work, the supply side has changed from tight to abundant.

After the national day, the domestic polysilicon market began to decline, this week is to continue the previous trend. In terms of supply, at present, the operating rate of domestic polysilicon manufacturers has rebounded. Up to now, about 11 domestic polysilicon manufacturers have maintained about 3 maintenance or load reduction start-up. The production capacity in Xinjiang has been gradually restored, and the supply has slightly increased compared with the previous period. However, the inventory of most enterprises is on the high side at present, but the manufacturers are also speeding up the process of digestion recently, and the enterprises continue to sign orders. The orders are basically finished in October, and large factories begin to sign new orders in November. This mainly depends on the stability of the current demand. In September, the upstream and downstream enterprises of silicon materials have been in the process of price game, and the downstream purchase intention is reduced, but the silicon material inventory consumption is obvious. Therefore, the downstream gradually recovers the willingness to take goods to replenish the warehouse, and adds to the recent inventory backlog of silicon material manufacturers. Although the price is still relatively high, it still has the behavior of reducing the price to inventory Tourism procurement increased. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic mainstream transaction price of polysilicon with the model of first-class solar material is 60000-65000 yuan / ton, and the price of polysilicon in non China area is 70000-73000 yuan / ton.

In the near future, polysilicon will maintain a basic balance between supply and demand, and the medium-term market may enter a pattern of loose supply. In particular, with the further tightening of the export of photovoltaic products, downstream demand may be relatively low. It is expected that the price of polysilicon will be affected by it, and it is not ruled out that it may continue to fall.

Note: the above price is tax inclusive

This week, the domestic liquid ammonia market remained stable in most regions, Hebei continued to maintain the steady state last week, and the price in Shandong ended its rising market. This week, it is mainly seen that it is stable. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the mainstream market quotation in Shandong is 2900-3000 yuan / ton.

The price of liquid ammonia in Shandong remained stable this week, with stable supply from large factories, normal operation of the plant, and reasonable inventory pressure. Affected by the overall stability of domestic urea market, especially limited production in Shanxi and some other regions, the operating rate decreased and supply brought some support. Liquid ammonia was obviously slightly better than urea, and enterprises also preferred to produce liquid ammonia. From the downstream, the current agricultural fertilizer off-season, the terminal wait-and-see do not pick up goods, many places have prices and no market, which makes the liquid ammonia did not continue the last week’s rise.

In other regions, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong has stabilized, and the outflow of ammonia in Shandong is not as large as expected, so the impact on Hebei is not obvious. Therefore, the prices of manufacturers in Hebei maintain the steady state of the previous week, and there is no significant change in prices. The range of rise and fall is about 50 yuan / ton. At present, the Cangzhou unit of a plant in Hebei still produces a small amount of liquid ammonia, so the pressure is not big. This is also an important factor to balance the supply and demand of the region. The liquid ammonia quantity in the region basically maintains a balance between supply and demand, and the current price is 2950-3100 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the future market, the business agency believes that the majority of enterprises reported stable liquid ammonia Market over the weekend, and continued to be stable for a week, indicating the lack of upward momentum in the market, especially in the current low season of downstream fertilizer. Therefore, there is a certain risk of decline in liquid ammonia. The price range of liquid ammonia has fluctuated since the festival, and there is no big market. It is expected that the domestic ammonia volume will remain moderate in the short term In the near future, the domestic liquid ammonia market is still dominated by range consolidation, and there may be some differentiation in the trend of various regions. In the regions affected by the production restriction policy, the prices may be firmer. However, most manufacturers in the region may accumulate in the later stage, which will affect the price of liquid ammonia to fall. In addition, the market is mainly affected by large-scale plants, which does not exclude the impact of equipment maintenance on the price. On the demand side, the downstream demand is rigidly stable. In the current off-season market, the downstream demand may shrink, and the downstream operating rate is expected to gradually decrease in the later stage. Considering comprehensively, the liquid ammonia will maintain stability in the near future, and there is a downward risk in the medium and long term prices.

1、 Price trend of formic acid

(Figure: P value curve of formic acid products)

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has been running steadily. As of October 22, the average price quoted by formic acid enterprises was 2133.33 yuan / ton, up 3.23% compared with last Thursday (October 15) and 25% higher than that of August 22, according to the large list data of business agency. The manufacturers and distributors’ devices are in normal operation. The downstream potassium formate and calcium formate industry demand is stable. The formic acid procurement is steadily followed up. The pharmaceutical industry mainly receives orders periodically. The market transaction is fair, and the formic acid market is stable and rising.

According to the data monitoring of business agencies, some enterprises’ formic acid prices are summarized as follows: the quotation of industrial grade 85% formic acid of Zhangzhou San’an Chemical Co., Ltd. is 2000 yuan / ton, that of Jintan local industrial supply and Marketing Co., Ltd. is 2400 yuan / T, and that of Zibo Pulis Chemical Co., Ltd. is 2200 yuan / T. the spot price of merchants is in line with the market, The actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

For the upstream caustic soda, on October 21, the price of caustic soda in Shandong was relatively strong. The mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda was 450-530 yuan / ton. October is the traditional peak season, and the demand side of caustic soda has certain support. At the same time, October is also the maintenance peak period, so the supply side may tighten. It is predicted that the short-term caustic soda price may be stronger; the upstream liquid ammonia market will rise slightly in the near future (10.01-10.21); the upstream sulfuric acid market will rise slightly in Shandong Province in the near future (10.01-10.21), and the upstream sulfur market will rise slightly in the near future, with good cost support, but the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general, the sulfuric acid supply is normal, and the factory price of sulfuric acid in the future market will fluctuate slightly As of October 21, the average price quoted by enterprises was 1932.50 yuan / ton, up 7.66% compared with October 1.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on October 21, 2020, there were 18 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall, including 1 commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the total number of commodities monitored in this plate; the top three commodities that increased were butadiene (5.10%), formic acid (3.23%) and hydrogen peroxide (3.11%). There were 7 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, with R22 (- 4.60%), TDI (- 0.96%) and bisphenol A (- 0.79%). The average rise or fall was 0.2%.

3、 Future forecast

Formic acid analysts of the business community believe that in the near future, the raw material prices are stable and strong, and the downstream demand is steadily followed up. It is expected that the industrial grade formic acid market will be mainly stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of October 21, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol including packaging in mainstream areas was around 11434 yuan / ton, which was increased by 67 yuan / ton or 0.59% compared with October 1.

At present, the domestic market of n-propanol is stable in many regions. Dealers in some regions adjust the ex factory price of n-propanol in a narrow range, and the adjustment range is around 100-300 yuan / ton. The market is characterized by “big stability and small movement”. At present, the downstream demand is normal, and the purchase of rigid demand is dominated, and large order transactions are limited. The domestic trade of n-propanol mainly supplied contract users, the inventory remained tight, and the factory sales pressure was small, which supported the high-level quotation of n-propanol. As of the 21st, the reference price of n-propanol bulk water in Shandong was 10500-10800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream offer price including packaging was about 11300-115000 yuan / ton, with little adjustment. In Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd., the production unit of n-propanol started normally and shipped normally. The ex factory price of n-propanol bulk water is 10000 yuan / T.

In terms of raw materials, after the double festival, the external price of ethylene showed an overall upward trend. The average price of ethylene on the 8th day was 757.75 USD / T, and the 15th day was 773.00 USD / T, up 2.01%. The price rose by 5.17% month on month, and the price decreased by 11.91% year on year. In the past two days, the external price of ethylene has been up and down. As of the 20th day, the price of ethylene market in Europe has been both up and down. FD northwest Europe quoted 710-723 US dollars / ton, down 1 US dollars / ton; CIF northwest Europe quoted 701-710 US dollars / ton, up 1 US dollars / ton. The recent market demand is the same. The Asian ethylene market is mainly stable, CFR Northeast Asia quoted 835-845 US dollars / ton, CFR Southeast Asia quoted 810-820 US dollars / ton. In the rise of American ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted 490-502 US dollars / ton, up 11 US dollars / ton. The recent US ethylene market is mainly up, and the demand is fair.

Internationally, on October 20, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $41.70/barrel, up $0.64. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $43.16/barrel, up $0.54. International oil prices rose by more than 1% on Tuesday, mainly due to market expectations that a new US stimulus policy for the epidemic is close to being reached. However, the surge in the number of new cases of the global epidemic has slowed down the recovery expectations of most economies, and the increase in Libya’s oil production has limited the room for oil prices to rise.

The price fluctuation is limited after n-propanol is put into operation

At present, the downstream procurement of n-propanol in China is normal. Under the support of raw materials, the price fluctuation of n-propanol is limited. In addition, most of the demand customers are contracted relatively stable. Therefore, the analysts of n-propanol from the business agency believe that the domestic n-propanol market will still maintain a high and stable operation in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the cost of raw materials and the supply of goods in the future.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average market price of coking coal in North China on October 20 was about 1366.67 yuan / ton, down 9.79% from the same period last year. The price of coking coal is mainly stable.

On October 19, the coking coal commodity index was 100.86, unchanged with yesterday, down 17.01% from 121.53 (2019-03-12), and 124.58% higher than 44.91, the lowest point on January 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

According to the business agency, the safety inspection in Shanxi Province has been strengthened recently, and the coal enterprises are still stable in operation. At present, the pace of coal enterprises’ shipment is speeding up, and the inventory of low sulfur main coke is declining. At the present stage, the coke enterprises start to operate well, the demand for coking coal is better, and the overall operation of coking coal is relatively strong.

Demand: on the downstream side, the price of coke is mainly stable for the time being. Some coke enterprises in Shanxi have started the fifth round of increase, with a range of 50 yuan / ton. At present, the environmental protection policy is loose, the profits of enterprises are high, the coking enterprises start higher, the production is active, and the coke inventory is mainly low. At present, the operation of the downstream is normal and has not been affected by the environmental protection policy. The demand for coke is good and the replenishment is active. In terms of port, the supply of goods is still tight, the price is stable temporarily, and the market inquiry is positive. Affected by the shortage of supply, the sales are average. In the future, the market is mainly stable and strong.

According to the coking coal analysts of the business society, the price of coke is mainly stable for the time being. Some coke enterprises in Shanxi Province have started the fifth round of increase, with a range of 50 yuan / ton. At present, coking enterprises start higher, production is active, coke inventory is low. The downstream purchase of coking coal has increased significantly. Generally speaking, coking coal is expected to operate in a short term or strong way in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of October 19, the average price of domestic power lithium iron phosphate was 37000.00 yuan / ton. The market supply and demand were balanced, and the rise and fall were in a dilemma. The price of dynamic lithium iron phosphate was stable, and the price remained stable. The market was mainly stable.

The market price range of lithium iron phosphate power is 33000-37000 yuan / ton, and the average price is 35000 yuan / ton. The price is stable, the demand is general, and the overall market purchasing atmosphere is dull. At present, the price range of energy storage lithium iron phosphate is 28000-29000 yuan / ton, with an average price of about 28750 yuan / ton. At present, the quotation of power type lithium iron phosphate enterprises is 37000 yuan / ton of Guangdong Optical Technology Co., Ltd., and Foshan City German side Nano Technology Co., Ltd. is 37000 yuan / ton, and beiteri new energy materials Co., Ltd. is 37000 yuan / ton.

The overall operation of upstream lithium carbonate is stable. At present, the mainstream price range of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 33500-37000 yuan / ton, with a slight increase. The mainstream price range of battery grade lithium carbonate is 39500-40500 yuan / ton, and the price remains stable.

On October 18, the chemical index was 760, unchanged with yesterday, 25.20% lower than 1016 (2012-03-13), and 27.09% higher than 598, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

Business Club lithium iron phosphate analysts believe: lithium iron phosphate market prices remain stable in the short term, just need to purchase. (the above prices are provided by major lithium iron phosphate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business lithium iron phosphate analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of October 16, the average price of silicone DMC market quotation in the mainstream areas of data monitoring was 18333 yuan / ton. Compared with October 15, the average price was increased by 77 yuan / ton, or 0.36%; compared with October 12, the average price was increased by 333 yuan / ton, or 1.85%; compared with October 1, the average price was increased by 533 yuan / ton, or 3.0%.

More closures! High end quotation of silicone DMC to 18700 yuan / ton

In October, the organic silicon up and down industrial chain can be described as “a piece of sound”, up and down conduction support is smooth, on the 16th, silicone DMC The latest transaction price of the market is close to the high-end market again, and the high-end quotation has risen to 18700 yuan / T. at present, the market is more closed, the supply of factory goods is tight, and the manufacturers are reluctant to sell. The downstream raw rubber, silicone oil, silicone oil, etc. all enter the general rising channel this week, providing support for silicone DMC from bottom to top. Compared with the average price of DMC at the beginning of the day, the average price of DMC rose by RMB 16 / T, compared with the average price of DMC at the beginning of this month, it rose by RMB 16 / T.

At present, the mainstream offer of silicone DMC market is 18200-18500 yuan / ton, the low-end offer is close to the upper, and the high-end offer is up to 18700 yuan / ton.

On the downstream side, the downstream raw rubber market continued to rise this week. At present, the spot market is tight, and the enterprise’s list is compact, and some manufacturers do not make an offer. As of the 16th, the mainstream quotation of ordinary raw rubber is RMB 20000-20400 / T, and the high level of raw materials provides cost support. At present, the sentiment of the industry is still pulling upward. It is expected that the raw rubber market will continue to rise in the short term.

DMC will continue to grow better

At present, manufacturers have a strong intention to stand up for prices, and the market is bullish. Under the rising buying mood, the downstream demand is positive, the number of new order inquiries is increasing, the factory mentality is good, and the number of closed orders is increasing. Under the reluctance to sell, it is expected that the silicone DMC market will continue to be good in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of October 15, the average price of silicone DMC market quotation in the mainstream areas of data monitoring was 18266.67 yuan / ton. Compared with October 1, the average price was increased by 466 yuan / ton, or 2.66%. Compared with September 1, the average price was increased by 1400 yuan / ton, or 8.30%.

In September, domestic silicone DMC “soared” and rose

In September, the domestic silicone DMC market rose all the way, with a significant rise. The first choice is to enter the peak sales season of Jinjiu. The upstream and downstream operators have a positive attitude. In addition, the upward trend of raw material silicon metal gives strong support to silicone DMC. Since the beginning of September, silicone DMC has continued to rise with strong momentum. The downstream demand is good, and the buying price is not falling. The amount of stock and replenishment is increasing. The upstream and downstream supply and demand transmission is smooth, and the market is constantly rising. The price gap between high and low end of silicone DMC market has been greatly reduced. In the middle of the month, although the upward speed of silicone DMC has been weakened, many factories have processed the early orders, the on-site inventory is relatively low, and the delivery pressure is small. Therefore, the factory’s offer is still firm and stable, and some manufacturers continue to explore it slightly.

At the end of September, the double festival is approaching, and the downstream starts to stock up. This factor gives the silicone DMC practitioners confidence, and the quotation continues to move closer to the high-end. Silicone downstream silicone, raw rubber, compound rubber, silica and other products have been rising, the recent market rise is eye-catching, from the bottom up to support the silicone DMC market trend high and strong. As of September 30, the average price of silicone DMC in mainstream areas was 17800 yuan / ton, which was increased by 933 yuan / ton or 5.53% compared with September 1

Silicone DMC rises strongly in October

In October, after the double festival, the domestic silicone DMC market continued to rise steadily. At present, the inventory of monomer plants is low, the downstream demand is good, the procurement is normal, and the conduction is smooth. The current market situation of silicone DMC is generally good, the trading atmosphere is active, and the downstream silicone oil silicone orders are stable, which is good for the silicone DMC. After the festival, the external quotation of some factories’ silicone DMC has been increased for two rounds At present, as of October 15, the mainstream quotation of domestic silicone DMC is 18000-18500 yuan / ton, and the average price is 18266 yuan / ton. Compared with October 1, the average price is increased by 466 yuan / ton, or 2.66%. Compared with September 1, the average price is increased by 1400 yuan / ton, or 8.30%.

Upstream, after the festival, the domestic silicon metal market overall stable operation. As of the 15th, the price of silicon metal in Shanghai has been stable, with an average price of 12300 yuan / ton, 12200-12400 yuan / ton; the price of silicon metal in Sichuan is 11400-11500 yuan / ton, with an average price of 11450 yuan / ton; that of Fujian Province is between 11000 and 11100 yuan / ton, with an average price of 11050 yuan / ton. The reference price of domestic silicon metal was 11650.00, which was the same as that on October 1.

Low inventory demand stable silicone DMC inventory continues to pull up momentum

At present, the overall operating rate of silicone DMC is around 8 floors, which is basically the same as that in September. The newly added capacity of some monomer plants is not fully developed, and the on-site inventory is limited in the short term, and the inventory is mainly low. Therefore, under the normal upstream and downstream transmission and stable demand, the driving force of monomer manufacturers to pull up the DMC market quotation again is still in force. It is expected that the market of silicone DMC will continue in late October Continue to explore.

In the early ten days of October, the international crude oil rose, but the domestic asphalt market supply was sufficient, and the domestic asphalt price was stable. According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, the asphalt price was reported at 2291 yuan / ton on October 11, down 0.76% from the beginning of the month.

More than 90% of crude oil production capacity has been stagnated due to the hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico; Norwegian oil workers have gone on strike; Saudi Arabia has raised the official price of Arab light crude oil; and the EIA report at the beginning of the month showed that crude oil stocks fell by 1.98 million barrels last week. The positive will stimulate the rise of international oil prices. With the end of Norway’s oil workers’ strike and the increase of OPEC’s crude oil exports in September, the EIA reported on October 7 that the US crude oil inventory increased by 501000 barrels to 492.9 million barrels, which was far more than expected. International oil prices fell back. On the whole, the international crude oil price rose first and then fell slightly. In the first ten days of October, the price of WTI crude oil rose by 4.86%, while that of Brent crude oil rose by 4.69%.

At present, the operating rate of the refineries remains high and the market supply is still abundant. In North China, the overall operating rate rose, higher than the same period in previous years. Inventory in South China, East China, Shandong and other places has decreased, but the overall supply of asphalt market is still very sufficient. In recent years, the rainfall in most areas of China has decreased significantly, and the demand for asphalt rigidity has been released steadily, but the demand for asphalt rigidity in Southwest China is relatively weak. The temperature in Northeast and Northwest China has further decreased, and the continuous rush of terminal projects is expected to support the continuous release of asphalt demand; the projects in North China and central China have entered the centralized construction period, and the demand for asphalt may continue to be optimistic; the demand for asphalt in East China, Southwest China and South China is generally in general. On the whole, the sufficient supply of asphalt Market hinders the upward trend of asphalt price.

Business analysts believe that the blockade of some regions caused by the second epidemic in Europe is the biggest negative for the weak adjustment of the oil market. The international crude oil market will continue to be under pressure, and the asphalt terminal will enter the rush period at the end of the peak season, and the rigid demand for asphalt is supported. It is expected that the domestic asphalt price will rise steadily.