Jiangsu Xuzhou Petroleum Branch of Sinopec Sales Co., Ltd. stopped selling ethanol gasoline. Recently, it caused a lot of vibration in the industry, and also caused hot discussion outside the industry. In fact, since its birth, ethanol gasoline has enjoyed a “high degree of market attention” which is not commensurate with its “low market share”. At a time when food and energy security issues are widely concerned, the release of the “stop sale” notice directly touched the already sensitive nerves of the public, and once again exposed the short board of “grain as the main raw material” in the biofuel ethanol industry. At this critical moment, it is necessary to re-examine the industry development ideas and optimize the technical route based on the long-term adjustment.

Bioenergy represented by biofuel ethanol is a national strategic emerging industry. The promotion of ethanol gasoline for vehicles is not only in line with the strategic direction of building a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient modern energy system, but also helps to solve the burning problem of agricultural and forestry wastes such as straw, improve the atmospheric environmental quality, solve the problem of “aged grain”, improve the level of food quality and safety, and help to improve the quality and safety of grain It can not only promote farmers to open up new channels to increase income, but also help to improve the comprehensive utilization of agricultural and forestry waste resources and promote the development of advanced Bioenergy Industry. In other words, the promotion of ethanol gasoline has important practical significance and strategic value.

In addition, the conditions for the development of ethanol gasoline are complete: the strategy of green and low-carbon energy transformation has created unprecedented development space for the development of ethanol gasoline industry; the annual available straw and forestry waste in China exceeds 400 million tons, which provides abundant raw material basis for the sustainable development of the industry; the industry development of more than 20 years has cultivated and reserved a total of 1 A large number of professional and technical personnel provide a solid intellectual guarantee for the transformation and upgrading of the industry.

But the weakness of ethanol gasoline industry is also obvious. The production structure of “87% raw material source is corn” is the sword of Damocles hanging on the head of the industry, and also the “seven inch” of China’s biofuel ethanol industry.

With a large population in China, the importance of food security cannot be overemphasized. Therefore, the development of biofuel ethanol cannot and should not be based on a high proportion of food raw materials. However, the reality is that the current global mature biofuel ethanol production technology takes corn, wheat, rice and other food crops as the main raw materials. “Competing with people for food” and “competing with grain for land” are always the problems that cannot be avoided in the development of the industry.

one can’t make bricks without straw. At present, the production and use of ethanol gasoline is not only an energy problem, but also a food security problem. Without the support of food security, no matter how advanced the technology is and how grand the planning is, it will be water without source and a tree without roots, and the industry development will not be sustainable.

Poverty leads to change, and change leads to adaptation. In order to achieve large-scale and sustainable development, the industry must find a new way, from “food” to “non food”. That is to start a new stove, turn to rich resources of corn straw, hay, leaves and other kinds of plant fiber materials, reduce the dependence on food crops. Today, the technology of ethanol preparation from grain raw materials has been highly commercialized. However, the road of technology upgrading of “another gateway” is doomed to be difficult, but it has to be taken in the long run.

It is worth mentioning that China has already made some beneficial explorations in this respect. In 2001, in order to solve the problem of processing a large number of “aged grain”, China officially launched the pilot project of biofuel ethanol. However, after five years of rapid development, “competing for grain” has become a major problem. Therefore, since 2006, China has suspended the development of fuel ethanol based on grain as the basic raw material, and has successively built several non grain fuel ethanol demonstration stations in Guangxi, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Henan and other places Project or industrialization device, and such projects have the conditions of industrialization demonstration.

Practical work is the key. The core problem of fuel ethanol is never “whether to develop” but “how to develop”. “Stop selling” is just a small twists and turns in the development of the industry, so we should not exaggerate its negative impact by generalizing it. At the same time, “stop selling” also rings a warning bell for the industry, and the thinking of taking precautions is indispensable. The technical innovation and application practice of “non grain fuel ethanol” should be the next focus of the industry, enterprises and competent departments. Only in this way can the development of ethanol gasoline be decoupled from grain, thus helping to realize the “double security” of food and energy.

In recent years, the domestic ethanol market continued to rise. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the domestic ethanol market price was 6500 yuan / ton on October 14, and 6862 yuan / ton on November 4, with an increase of 5.58% during the period, 9.15% on a month on month basis, and 26.61% on a year-on-year basis. The main reasons are as follows: raw material corn fell slightly, raw material procurement in Northeast China was slightly difficult, enterprises ordered delivery, individual stocks existed, and downstream liquor and chemical industry just needed to purchase.

Quotation of 95% ethanol of some Shandong ethanol production enterprises:

Enterprise price (yuan / ton) device dynamic

Shandong Yusheng / 50000 T / a cassava alcohol plant shut down

Shandong Wudi Runsheng / 50000 T / a cassava alcohol plant shut down

Shandong fulichun normal 6650 cassava ethanol plant

Shandong Chengguang general grade 6850/

Shandong Chengguang no water 7450/

On the one hand, the market of raw corn fell slightly, on the other hand, the international epidemic situation is still severe, some people in the industry are optimistic about export, and the domestic epidemic prevention and control may also trigger a new round of demand. Business agency ethanol analysts predict that this week’s domestic ethanol market high volatility.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, aniline continued to rise in the first half of October, and stabilized the price in the second half of the month. On October 1, the price of aniline in Shandong was 5100-5300 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 5500-5600 yuan / ton; on October 31, the price of aniline in Shandong was 6600-6700 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 6700-6800 yuan / ton, with an average monthly increase of 25.79%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Raw materials, pure benzene: meet the National Day in early October, the price of pure benzene is stable. Return after the festival, driven by the downstream styrene pull up, prices rose rapidly. Near the end of the month, crude oil plummeted, combined with the weak fundamentals of pure benzene itself, the price fell weakly. This month, Sinopec North China increased 300 yuan / ton, and other regions increased 150 yuan / ton. On October 1, the listed price of pure benzene was 3000-3450 yuan / ton (average price was 3380 yuan / ton), and on October 31, it was 3350-3650 yuan / ton (average price was 3575 yuan / ton), with an increase of 5.77% this month.

Nitric acid: entered the “gold nine silver ten”, nitric acid market was better, nitric acid continued to rise in October. On October 1, the price of nitric acid in East China was 1516.67 yuan / ton and 1616.67 yuan / ton on October 31, up 100 yuan / ton or 6.59% compared with the beginning of the month.

The demand for MDI, auxiliaries and other products in the downstream of “Jinjiu Yinshi” aniline recovered, the profit margin expanded, and the operating rate rose, which supported the demand for aniline. During the month, some enterprises mainly supplied export and contract orders, and the spot volume was less, and the price rose rapidly. With the restart of a aniline plant in Jinling Dawang, the market supply increased and the shortage of aniline was relieved, and the price began to stabilize.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of raw materials, the port pressure of pure benzene remains unchanged, and the process of de stocking is slow. In addition, the price difference between internal and external plates is large, and the import pressure is increasing. However, in November, the downstream is expected to have new demand, which has a certain support for the price of pure benzene, and the pure benzene has a certain resistance to fall.

Dongying Huatai began maintenance at the end of the month, but Tianji device is expected to restart in early November, and the overall supply side has little change. Pay attention to the price trend of raw materials and maintenance plan of downstream enterprises. Aniline prices are expected to be strong in November.

Trade name: potassium chloride

Latest price (November 2): 1950.00 yuan / ton

On November 2, the mixed price of potassium chloride in Qinghai was temporarily stable, which was in line with the quotation on October 30. At present, the main contradiction in the market is that the supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream purchasing is mainly required, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

In the near future, the price of potassium chloride in Qinghai area may fluctuate slightly, and the quotation is about 1900-2000 yuan / ton.

Adipic acid market trend chart

According to the data from the large list of business associations, the domestic adipic acid market rose in October, which is also the end of the tepid market for six months since April. According to the data monitored by the business agency, adipic acid in East China rose by 5.14% in the whole month, mainly due to the sharp rise in upstream costs, the continuous rise of pure benzene price, and the improvement of downstream PA66 market. According to the monitoring of business agency, the current quotation range of adipic acid is 6800-7200 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of market supply, the operating rate of adipic acid manufacturers remained stable in October, about 80% or more. The market supply was relatively sufficient, and the manufacturers’ inventory pressure was large. Dealers normally take goods, although Jinjiu did not make efforts, but silver ten adipic acid price appeared small Yangchun market.

In terms of cost, the upstream crude oil price mainly maintained the range adjustment, and the upward rush was weak. Especially at the end of the month, affected by the overseas epidemic situation, the price of pure benzene rose sharply this month, with an increase of more than 10% in the second half of October. The pressure of cost (as shown in the figure above) forced the price of adipic acid to rise.

Market trend of pure benzene

In terms of downstream demand, the terminal performance improved slightly. Although the chemical industry recovered steadily in the late stage of the epidemic, the operating rate of downstream factories increased slightly. In addition, rigid consumption of polyurethane in the downstream remained stable, and the market of PA66 also rose, with a monthly increase of 7.99%, as shown in the figure above.

In the later stage, it seems that the market of adipic acid is mainly driven by the upstream and downstream, and whether the price of adipic acid can rise in the later period depends on whether the demand can keep up with it. However, at present, with the approaching of winter, the downstream operating rate may decline, and the influence of environmental protection and other factors will make it difficult for adipic acid to have a big market, and it is unlikely that adipic acid will continue to rise.

Acetone rose first and then fell in October. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the mainstream offer of the East China market was 6800 yuan / ton after the festival, while in the middle of the month, the East China market rose to 7500 yuan / ton, and the market in East China increased by more than 10% in the first half of the month. However, the overall trend of decline in the next month was not long, and the low-end prices of 6500-6600 yuan / ton appeared in the morning of the 29th However, on the afternoon of the 29th, with the decrease of port inventory, the downstream inquiry increased rapidly, and the actual order purchase filled the market one after another. On the 30th, the last trading day in October, the port inventory dropped to 13000 tons. The early offers from the shipholders were less, and the sporadic offers were mostly around 7100 yuan / ton. It was heard that the market transaction was also between 6800 and 7000 yuan / ton 。 It was expected that October would finish smoothly under the condition of poor demand and low supply pressure, but the market was volatile, with the acetone market soaring by 7.58% on the last trading day.

At present, the mainstream factories offer 6700-6800 yuan / ton, while in the market, the offer in East China is 7100 yuan / ton, that in South China is 7400 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong and around Yanshan is 7200 yuan / ton.

From the point of view of the products themselves, as the weathervane of the national market, the negotiated price in East China once fell to 6500 yuan / ton, while the market rose sharply at the end of the month. At present, the operating rate of downstream factories is relatively high, and most of the downstream products have a good profit margin. Especially in the current special period, the pharmaceutical industry continues to improve, and the demand for acetone is continuous, and the port inventory drops to 13000 tons at the end of the month Under the condition that the quantity of factories is average, the demand is slightly improved and the market is greatly higher.

Market forecast: after the domestic acetone market fell, the market rebounded sharply. Next month, lihuayi phase II and Zhejiang Petrochemical products are expected to be listed, and the terminal procurement will be promoted steadily. It is expected that the acetone market will be stable in the short term, with an offer of about 7000 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of steam coal has been stable for the time being. On October 29, the average port price of steam coal remained at 607 yuan / ton, while on October 1, the average price of steam coal was 611.25 yuan / ton, down 0.7%, and the price was 6.44% higher than last year.

On October 28, the commodity index of steam coal was 73.13, down 0.06 points compared with yesterday, 29.01% lower than 103.01 points (2011-11-15), and 63.60% higher than 44.70 points, the lowest point on January 20, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of origin, Shanxi area large mine association shipping, coal prices are strong. The overall sales of lump coal in Inner Mongolia is good. In Yulin, Shaanxi Province, 17 new coal mines have withdrawn from the production capacity, and the downstream demand is still strong, and the coal price is expected to be strong.

Downstream power plants: entering the fourth quarter, the demand for electric coal is strong in winter peak season, and the inventory decreases rapidly. The centralized procurement of power plants leads to the rapid rise of coal price. However, with the continuous winter storage and replenishment of the previous period of time, the coal inventory of power plants increased, and the pace of market replenishment slowed down, which limited the short-term demand for steam coal and had a negative impact on the market sentiment. At present, the mainstream closing price of 5500 kcal steam coal is about 605-610 yuan / ton.

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to September, 2.79 billion tons of raw coal were produced, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%. In September, the production of raw coal was 330 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%, an increase of 0.8% over the previous month; the average daily output was 11.04 million tons, with an increase of 530000 tons on a month on month basis.

Business agency analysts believe: short term non electric terminal production will still be in the peak season, the north will gradually enter the heating season, thermal power production and electricity coal consumption demand will be improved. The daily consumption of power plants in southern China is high, and there are few import quotas left in coastal areas. It is predicted that the short-term steam coal price will be stronger and the operation will be mainly based on the downstream market demand.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic polyester filament market rebounded strongly in October, among which polyester DTY increased the most, with 150D / 48F low elasticity increasing by 8.94% in the same month, followed by polyester POY and polyester DTY, with increases of 6.36% and 4.51% respectively.

Average price rise and fall of polyester filament Market in October, unit: yuan / ton

Products up and down from October 1, 2020 to October 28, 2020

Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) 6570.00 7157.50 8.94% – 19.53%

Polyester POY (150D / 48F) 5156.00-5484.00 6.36% – 23.56%

Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) 5548.33 5798.33 4.51% – 22.41%

The demand side started and ushered in the “silver 10″ market. During the national day, the rebound of oil price provided the initial power for the price increase of polyester filament industry chain, and then the demand side got favorable support. Orders from overseas textile industry are flowing into China, and the textile and clothing markets at home and abroad are picking up sharply as the “double 11″, Christmas, Spring Festival and other festivals are approaching. According to the latest data of the General Administration of customs, in September 2020, the export of textiles and clothing reached 28.37 billion US dollars, an increase of 18.2%, including 13.15 billion US dollars of textile exports, an increase of 35.8%, and 15.22 billion US dollars of clothing exports, an increase of 6.2%.

In addition, this year’s cold winter is expected to make the market better in autumn cashmere fabric shipment, home textile, winter warm clothing and other market demand, factory orders are mostly maintained until early November. For example, in the traditional market of China Light and Textile City, the varieties of new fashion fabrics and leisure top fabrics in autumn and winter increased, and the transaction volume of many varieties increased. It is understood that local production and sales recovered from October 6 to 9. The average production and sales of major polyester filament manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions were 140% – 160%, and the production and sales of some higher enterprises were more than 300%. In the first trading day after the festival, both the volume and price of polyester filament rose, especially DTY. The price went up all the way, with an increase of nearly 10% as of the 22nd compared with the beginning of the month.

However, as the winter fabric procurement is basically exhausted, the order situation of replenishment is not enough to maintain the market growth. At the same time, weak crude oil finishing, PTA new production capacity put into production, resulting in a small decline in the price of polyester filament. The average production and sales of major factories are between 50% and 70%, and the production and sales of some better factories can reach 100%. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory of polyester market is concentrated in 27-39 days, of which POY inventory is up to 9-17 days, FDY inventory is around 20-39 days, and DTY inventory is about 28-39 days.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the current peak season of overall demand is coming to an end, and it will usher in the traditional off-season in November. Moreover, the epidemic situation in foreign countries is still severe. Some countries and regions in Europe and the United States once again take restrictive measures. There is still great uncertainty in the demand recovery. Textile enterprises also have concerns. They adopt the business strategy of more market-oriented atmosphere and production according to order.

In addition, the current raw material PTA market, crude oil is weak finishing, downstream polyester speculation ends, new capacity production price drops. In the future, it will face the pressure of new capacity release, and there is no inventory inflection point in inventory. As of October 23, the social inventory was about 3.5 million tons, which was at the high level in the same period from 2016 to 2019. It is expected that the social inventory will continue to accumulate in November and December. Overall, market supply remained loose expectations, and the upward drive was still insufficient.

On the whole, there are more bad news released in the polyester filament Market in November, and all parties have a strong wait-and-see attitude. Purchasers are cautious, and there may be a risk of price falling.

1、 Acrylic acid price trend

(Figure: P value curve of acrylic acid products)

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the market of acrylic acid is weak. As of October 27, the average price of acrylic acid quoted in East China was 10566.67 yuan / ton, down 0.31% compared with last Tuesday (October 20) and increased by 9.31% compared with September 27, according to the data of the bulk list of business agencies. At present, the price of raw material propylene is falling, the cost support is weakened, the enthusiasm of downstream inquiry is not high, the transaction is limited, and the market atmosphere is light.

Upstream propylene, on October 26, the market price of propylene in Shandong continued to decline. According to the price chart of the business agency, since October 1, the price of propylene has remained stable on the whole, with some enterprises’ prices rising and falling slightly this week. On Friday, only a few enterprises’ prices fell slightly. Most enterprises continued to hold steady, but fell about 200 yuan / ton from 17 to 19, a small range from 20 to 23, and an obvious downward trend appeared again at the weekend (October 24 and 25), and 200 yuan / ton on the 26th At present, the market turnover is between 7075 and 7300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7100 yuan / ton. Now the pressure of shipment is increasing.

3、 Future forecast

Acrylic acid analysts of the business community believe that at present, the raw material support is weakened, the downstream buying gas is insufficient, and the market transaction is limited. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be weak in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the recent market price of domestic PP in late October was slightly volatile, and the offer was mainly sorted out. Spot prices of some brands have risen slightly. As of Monday, October 26, the main offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic producers and traders was around 8150 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0%, which was 1.66% higher than the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Analysis of the causes

The domestic (Shandong) market of propylene in the upstream of PP was settled smoothly in the first half of October, and it began to decline in the next half. As of October 26, the average price of sample enterprises was 7245.45 yuan / ton, and it is currently the lowest in the month. In the first half of the month, some propylene plants were overhauled, and the overall supply was tight. But there was a large amount of goods flowing in the northeast region last weekend, the pressure of manufacturers and dealers increased, and the operation was inclined to make profit delivery. Downstream continued a small number of low-cost procurement as the main, market investment atmosphere is weak. The price of crude oil in the far upstream fell over the weekend. At present, the regional supply volume of propylene is increased, but the consumption in the downstream is generally in conflict with high price goods. Previously, the price of propylene has been at a relatively high level, so it is expected that the price of propylene will be mainly reduced in the near future.

Propylene prices fell last weekend, and support for PP cost end was weakened. According to data monitored by the business agency, the PP market last week was stable. The demand of downstream after saving is at a high level, which supports spot price. In terms of inventory, the accumulated stock of petrochemical stocks in recent years is beyond expectations, but the inventory level is still in a moderate position in the season, and the port inventory is still low. The increase before the festival has gradually caused high pressure on PP in the near future. After the weekend, the price of drawing film, transparent film and pipe in petrochemical plant has been reduced slightly. The crude oil in the far upstream also has a small drop, which has certain suppression on the chemical industry chain. In terms of demand, the downstream inquiry mood is not high, and the focus of the investment is near the low price. The demand for the external market is mixed, while the demand for some automobile, bottle cap and closure parts industry is strong, while the membrane market has a general response. Analysts are worried about new capacity that could be released by the end of October or will have a shock on the PP market.

According to the data monitored by the business society, as of October 26, the main price of Z30S (fiber) of domestic producers and traders was about 8283.33 yuan / ton. The average price level of the month was 0.80% lower. The early high of the month appeared at 8383.33 yuan / ton on the 14th, and the overall operation was stable in the first half of the month. In recent years, the average starting rate of domestic PP producers has fallen by about 3% compared with that before the saving period, but in the short term, many enterprises have a resumption plan, and the expected start rate will rise slightly. Futures Volatility gradually increased, manufacturers have factory prices also reduced, the mentality of the industry is affected. Business operation is cautious, downstream side just need to prepare goods, mentality to wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that PP (fiber) will have weak disk surface in the near future.

The market of PP melt spray material was stable and small in mid October, and the overall confidence of domestic PP melt injection material market was still poor. According to the data monitored by the business society, PP (melt spray) material has been adjusted in shock since October. As of October 26, the average price of sample enterprises is about 14433.33 yuan / ton. At present, the epidemic situation in China is generally stable, and relevant experts have led to consolidate the epidemic prevention measures in recent years to prevent the rebound. Last week and this week, Shandong and Xinjiang are tentatively classified as medium and high-risk areas, and demand will follow, which is not yet reflected in spot prices. The overseas epidemic situation is still deteriorating, the non-woven fabric in medical protection applications continues to be sought after, and demand is expected to rise. But the competition of domestic anti epidemic products manufacturers is still strong, and the profit dilution of domestic main downstream enterprises of spray melting material is serious. At present, PP (melt injection) price is low, and it is expected that the melt spray material will be recovered due to the expansion of demand in the near future.

Post market forecast

PP analysts of business agency think: the domestic PP spot market is generally stable. The upstream propylene market was down at a high level, the price decreased, and the support for PP cost end was weakened. PP (drawing) supply volume is still not up, PP (fiber) market shock finishing, PP (melt spray) demand has a rise in expectations, prices are big, stable and small move. At present, the reduction of petrochemical inventory has slowed down and has a small increase. The futures trend amplitude is expanding today, which is not good for spot. Downstream factory stock situation is still OK, business mentality is affected, offer individual drop. The expected increase in the operating rate may lead to the gradual increase of spot supply of PP, and the market may be weak.