1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of steam coal fell this week. On January 18, the average port price of steam coal was maintained at 1037.5 yuan / ton, and on January 22, the average port price of steam coal was maintained at 958.75 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 7.59% and a year-on-year increase of 70.68%. On January 21, the steam coal commodity index was 120.48, down 4.07 points from yesterday, down 3.62% from the highest point of 125.00 points (2021-01-19) in the cycle, and up 169.53% from the lowest point of 44.70 points on January 20, 2016. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of producing area, the price of producing area is still rising. Due to the severe epidemic situation in the main producing area, some coal mines stop production. The coal price in Inner Mongolia is stable, because the approved production capacity in a few areas has been used up and production has been suspended; in Shaanxi, because of the prevention and control of public health incidents, coal pulling has decreased. Overall supply is still relatively tight.

Downstream power plants: due to the rising temperature, the daily consumption of power plants decreased and the inventory of power plants increased. On the demand side, the pressure of power generation is relieved and the demand is decreased. Moreover, the power plant held a wait-and-see attitude towards the steam coal in February, and some traders lowered their prices to actively ship. The demand game between the buyer and the seller is mainly due to the uncertainty of power plant daily consumption in February.

Macro: on January 18, the National Bureau of statistics released the main data of industrial production above designated scale from January to December in 2020. In December, the national raw coal output was 351.89 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, 1.7 percentage points faster than that of last month; the daily output was 11.35 million tons, a month on month decrease of 230000 tons. From January to December, China’s raw coal output was 3843.74 million tons, up 0.9% year on year. According to the Ministry of Commerce, the national coal prices rose slightly last week (January 11 to January 17), with the prices of steam coal, No.2 anthracite lump coal and coking coal rising 1.1%, 0.3% and 0.3% to 630 yuan, 959 yuan and 777 yuan per ton, respectively.

Business analysts believe that: the Spring Festival is approaching, the temperature in the south is about to pick up, and the daily consumption of steam coal may have reached a high point. The power plant had accumulated a large amount of inventory before, which reduced the short-term purchasing pressure and affected the transaction in the short-term spot market. However, the market has different attitudes towards the daily consumption of power plants in February. Overall, short-term steam coal prices or maintain a narrow consolidation market, specific to the downstream market demand.

According to the data from the commodity list of business news agency, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong has risen recently. On the 13th, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1167.67 yuan / ton. On the 20th, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1286.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 10.29%. The current price has increased by 10.29% month on month, and the current price has increased by 22.15% year on year.

Recently, the domestic formaldehyde market price has risen. As of January 20, the mainstream ex factory price in Central China is about 1233 yuan / ton, that in North China is 1060 yuan / ton, and that in East China is 1286 yuan / ton. Shandong Linyi Galaxy formaldehyde production capacity of 120000 tons / year formaldehyde plant has been restarted. Recently, some formaldehyde factories in Shandong Province have been operating at low load. Recently, formaldehyde inventory is at a low level and the market is going up.

Upstream methanol situation: Shandong methanol Lubei market reference price is about 2250 yuan / ton, sent to cash. The turnover of methanol market in central Shandong was stable to 2400 yuan / ton in cash, while the transportation of peripheral goods was limited at present, and the price dropped slightly to 2250-2280 yuan / ton in cash. The ex factory price of methanol in the southern region of Shandong Province is temporarily stable at around 2270-2280 yuan / ton, and Linyi receives local goods at around 2270-2280 yuan / ton without tax, so there is no quotation for logistics goods. Methanol market in some areas fell slightly, the overall price is relatively stable, can form a certain support for formaldehyde.

Recently, Shandong timber factory is in the rush stage before the holiday, which has a large demand for formaldehyde and a good trading atmosphere in the market. Formaldehyde manufacturers have a positive attitude, leading the rise of formaldehyde market. But today, Shandong began to control environmental protection, and the construction of downstream timber plants was tightened.

Recently, the upstream raw material methanol market fell slightly, the cost support is limited, and the downstream wood mills are willing to take a holiday, and the demand is weakening. Therefore, the formaldehyde analysts of the chemical branch of business society expect that the recent formaldehyde price in Shandong will mainly fall slightly.

1、 Melamine price trend

(Figure: p-value curve of melamine products)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the melamine market was mainly stable. According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, as of January 15, the average quotation price of melamine enterprises was 7266.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week, increased by 0.93% compared with December 15, 2020, and increased by 30.54% over the same period in three months.

Melamine operation rate fell this week, but the demand was weak, downstream on-demand procurement still dominated, the market was flat, and the trading atmosphere was general. On January 15, the mainstream price of melamine in Shandong was around 7000 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of melamine in Xinjiang was around 6300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of melamine in Sichuan was around 6800 yuan / ton. The quotation is for reference only, and the actual price shall prevail.

Upstream urea, Shandong urea market rose on January 15. The recent high level consolidation of upstream liquid ammonia shows good cost support. The downstream demand rose as a whole, and in agriculture, fertilizer preparation in some areas was appropriately advanced. In terms of industry, the demand of plate and compound fertilizer plants has been followed up appropriately, and the purchasing enthusiasm of businesses has improved. On the supply side, some units have been shut down for maintenance recently, and the overall start-up has declined. The market supply has remained low.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in the 02nd week of 2021 (1.11-1.15), there were 40 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose month on month, among which 8 kinds of commodities rose by more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the total number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities were DMF (18.80%), n-butanol (industrial grade) (8.37%), epoxy resin (8.05%). There were 17 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 2 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 2.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products with a decrease were butadiene (- 11.42%), ox (- 6.00%) and chloroform (- 2.94%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.93%.

3、 Future forecast

Melamine analysts of business news agency believe that the price of upstream urea has risen recently, and the cost support has been strengthened, but the downstream demand has not been followed up enough. It is expected that the melamine market may be stable in the short term, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the market information guidance.

1、 Price trend

This week, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose from 1853.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1936.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 4.50%, and a year-on-year increase of 15.51%. Overall, urea market rose this week, with urea commodity index at 90.08 on January 15.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong rose this week. Yangmei plain urea quoted 1970 yuan / ton this weekend, up 120 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 1950 yuan / ton this weekend, up 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Minghua urea quoted 1890 yuan / ton this weekend, up 30 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

In agriculture, affected by the epidemic situation, fertilizer preparation in some areas was appropriately advanced. In industry, the warning of heavy pollution weather has been lifted gradually, the start-up of plate and compound fertilizer plants has recovered, the demand has been followed up appropriately, and the purchasing enthusiasm of businesses has improved. On the supply side, local units were stopped or overhauled for a short time, while the overall start-up declined, and the market supply remained low.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industry chain: the overall price of upstream urea products rose slightly this week: the price of LNG was temporarily stable, with a price of 5366.67 yuan / ton, up 75.00% compared with the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia rose this week, with a price increase of 1.84% from 3266.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3326.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 10.64% compared with the same period last year. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was temporarily stable, at 7266.67 yuan / ton. Overall, urea cost support is strong this week.

3、 Future forecast

In late January, the urea market in Shandong may fluctuate slightly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that the current agricultural demand is better, the industrial demand has improved, the urea supply is tight, and the short-term urea market is expected to fluctuate slightly.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China rose slightly this week. As of the 15th, the quotation of phthalic anhydride in China was 5612.5 yuan / ton, up 0.22% from 5600 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decline of 9.66%. The price trend of phthalic anhydride in China was mainly volatile.

This week, the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market rose slightly, the market situation of phthalic anhydride was general, the recent downstream demand changed little, the price of o-benzene declined, the plasticizer market rose, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market was mainly volatile. The domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers have little change in operation. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride on the floor is about 60%. The domestic phthalic anhydride spot supply is sufficient. The downstream plasticizer industry mainly purchases on demand. The goods on the floor are general, and the trading market on the floor has little change. The price trend of phthalic anhydride market in East China is temporarily stable, with limited high-end transactions on the market. The mainstream price of phthalic anhydride market in East China is 5600-5800 yuan / ton in the negotiation of neighboring France, 5400-5500 yuan / ton in the negotiation of naphthalene method; the mainstream price of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 5600-5700 yuan / ton, the market outlook of phthalic anhydride is still in place, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride market rises slightly.

This week, the domestic price of o-benzene dropped to 4700 yuan / ton, with a 6.0% drop this week. The domestic price of o-benzene fell due to the bad influence of phthalic anhydride market. In addition, the import price of o-benzene in port area declined, and the external quotation of o-benzene declined. The actual transaction price was subject to negotiation. The actual transaction price was discussed in detail. In addition, the wait-and-see sentiment of o-benzene merchants in the market still existed, and the price of o-benzene declined However, the downstream plasticizer market has improved, and the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has increased slightly.

This week, the market price of phthalic anhydride in the downstream DOP market fell slightly. According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic DOP price was 9550 yuan / ton as of the 15th, which was 0.78% lower than the price of 9625 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The cost of DOP raw materials, octanol price, equipment start-up of DOP enterprises were low, the price of PVC fluctuated and fell, and the demand of downstream customers was low. The plasticizer market is still driven by strong downward pressure. The transaction price is based on the real-time price. The overall DOP price is about 9400-9900 yuan / ton, and the price rise of phthalic anhydride is limited.

Overall, the recent trend of crude oil prices remained high, while the domestic price of o-benzene declined, but the plasticizer market was mainly volatile, and the market price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly.

In the future, the domestic price trend of o-benzene is mainly stable, but the plasticizer transaction market is rising, and the DOP price is rising slightly. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will remain volatile next week.

1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin

(Figure: p-value curve of epichlorohydrin product)

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of January 12, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 12166.67 yuan / ton, down 1.35% compared with the previous trading day, down 2.67% compared with last Tuesday (January 5) and up 0.27% compared with December 12.

Recently, the market price of epichlorohydrin has fallen, the accumulated inventory has increased, and the demand has not been followed up. In addition, with the mentality of buying up but not buying down, the delivery of goods is under pressure, the low price supply in the market is frequent, the confidence in the market is weak, the market atmosphere is light, the trading is small, the order just needs to be followed up, and the feeling of cautious wait-and-see is strong.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of epichlorohydrin of some enterprises is summarized (for reference only, the spot price of the merchants depends on the market, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation.)

Enterprise market price specification date

Jinan Mingyu Chemical Co., Ltd. ￥ 11600 / T ﹣ GB 99.9 ﹣ 2021-01-12

Shandong Yukang Chemical Co., Ltd. (?) 12500 yuan / ton, (?) high quality products; 99.9% min, (?) 2021-01-12

Shandong rongnuo Chemical Sales Co., Ltd. (?) 12100 yuan / ton, (?) top grade products; 99.9% min, (?) 2021-01-12

Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd. $11600 / T ﹣ GB 99.9 ﹣ 2021-01-12

Jinan aochen Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. $12000 / T high quality products; 99.9% min 2021-01-11

Upstream propylene, on January 11, Shandong propylene market price was generally stable. According to the price chart of the business club, the propylene price fell all the way at the end of December. It began to rise on New Year’s day and increased by about 100 yuan / ton on the 4th. On the 5th and 6th, the price was mainly stable, with only a few enterprises going up. On the 8th, some prices fell. Today’s price continued to stabilize over the weekend. The market transaction was between 7250 yuan / ton and 7500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was still around 7250 yuan / ton. Factory inventory is general, stable delivery.

For downstream epoxy resin, the focus of discussion on liquid epoxy resin rose on January 12. At present, the enthusiasm of downstream market inquiry has increased. The factory has no inventory pressure for the time being, and the price holder has a positive attitude. However, the downstream just needs to follow up and wait and see carefully.

3、 Future forecast

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of the business community, at present, the cost support is limited, the downstream demand is poor, the pressure of manufacturers to ship still exists, the market supply exceeds the demand, and the downstream stock purchase mentality is cautious. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may be weak in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

After new year’s day, the East China liquid epoxy resin continued to negotiate at 20100-21500 yuan / ton in barrels, of which the mainstream negotiation of solid resin was about 17200 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous period, the current factory orders were obviously insufficient. Most large enterprises implemented a single negotiation, and a few enterprises increased the pressure of shipping. In addition, the upstream raw material support is insufficient, and the epoxy resin will be promoted smoothly in the short term.

In terms of equipment, Nantong Xingchen 160000 tons liquid epoxy resin plant was shut down for maintenance; Huangshan Jinfeng 15000 tons solid epoxy resin plant was shut down for technical transformation. Guodu chemical’s epoxy resin plant is in the state of shutdown, mainly out of stock.

After the sharp drop of BPA, the rebound was weak, and the price of BPA was mainly kept in the range. The factories suspended the offer. In the market, the offer of BPA in East China and North China remained at 12800-12900 yuan / ton, which was lack of further momentum. At present, the market range is 12800-13000 yuan / ton, which is relatively stable on the whole. The market of epichlorohydrin, another important raw material, maintained a stable trend, with little change after the festival. At present, epichlorohydrin closed at 12200-12500 yuan / ton.

At present, the price of raw material bisphenol A in downstream resin factories is about 14000-16000 yuan / ton, while the price of epichlorohydrin is 11500-12200 yuan / ton. From this point of view, the profit value of liquid resin is low, and it has entered the bottom state. The business community expects that the short-term epoxy resin will maintain a stable trend, and the raw materials will give limited boost to it. However, the rebound of bisphenol a market has stopped the decline of epoxy resin market, and the short-term liquid ring will continue Oxygen resin maintains 20000-21500 yuan / ton

1、 Price trend

The factory price of octanol in Shandong fell this week. This week, the average factory price of octanol in Shandong fell from 11766.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 10966.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 6.8%, up 58.94% year on year compared with the same period last year. Overall, octanol market fell this week, with the octanol commodity index at 80.64 on January 8.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturers’ quotation, the factory quotation of Shandong octanol mainstream manufacturers fell this week: Jianlan chemical’s quotation for octanol this weekend was 11000 yuan / ton, down 800 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; lihuayi’s quotation for octanol this weekend was 10700 yuan / ton, down 800 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng’s quotation for octanol this weekend was 11200 yuan / ton, down 800 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week Down 800 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of octanol fell this week. The quoted price dropped from 7304.55 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7292.73 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a decrease of 0.16%, and a year-on-year increase of 4.43%. The upstream raw material market prices fell slightly, affected by the supply and demand side, which had a negative impact on the price of octanol.

Octanol downstream market, this week DOP factory prices fell larger. DOP quotation fell from 10250.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 9825.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 4.15%, and a year-on-year increase of 35.21%. The price of downstream DOP fell, the enthusiasm of downstream customers to purchase octanol weakened, the demand for octanol was general, and the future market operators mostly watched the trend of DOP.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of January, the trend of Shandong octanol market may be slightly volatile and fall mainly. Upstream propylene market fell slightly, raw material support was weak, downstream DOP market fell sharply, downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened, octanol supply was normal. Business community octanol analysts believe that: in mid January, under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of octanol market in Shandong, the octanol market may fall slightly.

1、 Trend analysis

Copper prices rose sharply this week. By the end of the week, the spot copper price was 61248.33 yuan / ton, up 5.39% from 58116.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, 5.68% from the beginning of the year, and 25.84% from the same period last year. This week, LME copper rose again in March, closing at US $8205 on Friday, up 5.82%; this week, the Shanghai copper index moved up to 60390 yuan, up 4.48%. This week, the international copper index closed at 53750 yuan, up 4.41%.

Bitcoin rose sharply at the beginning of this week, while OPEC meeting promoted production reduction to drive crude oil up sharply, and market inflation expectations rose. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party of the United States basically controlled the two houses in the election. The market hopes that the United States will introduce more stimulus policies, and China’s infrastructure construction expenditure is expected to be optimistic. The overnight copper output rose by $99 to an eight year high. Concentrate supply may remain tight, and global inventory is at a historical low Under the background of continuously favorable macro situation, the market is optimistic, copper has broken through the 8-year high and reached 60000 yuan / ton.

Based on the above situation, the macro atmosphere is optimistic, the market risk preference is improved, and the copper price is rising, but the epidemic is still raging, the current basic support is limited, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic PA6 market remained stable at a high level in December, and the spot price had a correction in the latter half of the year. As of January 1 of the new year, the mainstream offer price of Zhongyou 2.75-2.85 was about 12933.33 yuan / ton, up 2.92% from the average price in early December.

2、 The influencing factors were analyzed

In terms of upstream caprolactam, the domestic caprolactam market rebounded after rising in December, caprolactam continued to be in short supply in the first and middle of the year, and the spot price rose steadily. The average price on December 23 was 11400 yuan / ton. With the restart of maintenance equipment in the early stage, the supply of goods increased in the last ten days, and the effect began to appear, and the price gradually fell. Raw material pure benzene continued to rise in early December, supported by the external market. In the later period, due to the decline of crude oil, the continuous decline of styrene price and the increase of inventory pressure of pure benzene northern factory, pure benzene was under pressure. At present, the pure benzene market is volatile, and the cost of caprolactam is generally supported.

Raw material caprolactam market fell after rising, the cost of PA6 support in general. In December, the market of PA6 was generally strong, and all brands of products still rose in the first and middle of the year. PA6 has a certain increase in the early stage, and the price has been at a high level. Due to the pressure on the cost surface of some polymerization plants and the weakening of downstream demand, some polymerization plants passively reduce the load. Downstream factories and traders are resistant to the high price of goods. They prefer to buy on the cheap and purchase cautiously.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in December, the domestic PA6 market remained strong at a high level, and fell back at the end of the month. Upstream caprolactam supply increased, stagflation callback, the cost of PA6 support weakened. Downstream factory replenishment just need to give priority to, conflict with high price goods. PA6 has both cost side pressure and shrinking demand in the short term. It is expected that the spot price of PA6 will continue to be weak.