Driven by the price rise of raw material pure benzene, the domestic cyclohexanone market fluctuated at a high level. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, as of February 24, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone market was 10166 yuan / ton. The price of pure benzene of Sinopec was increased by 300 yuan / ton, and 6450 yuan / ton was implemented. All refineries under Sinopec carried out unified implementation, and the cost support continued to be strong. Sinopec’s quotation for high-end caprolactam was raised by 500 yuan to 13100 yuan / ton this week (liquid premium products will be accepted and picked up in June). The cost and demand side of cyclohexanone are improving, and some quotations of manufacturers follow the rise of raw materials.

Region, price

East China: 10200-10400 yuan / ton, cash delivery

South China: 10400-10600 yuan / ton, cash delivery

Shandong Province: 10100-10300 yuan / ton

The market of cyclohexanone continued to rise, raw material pure benzene continued to rise, the cost of cyclohexanone supported strongly, and the price increased significantly. Business community cyclohexanone analysts expect that the market of cyclohexanone will rise mainly in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the quotation of domestic industrial grade potassium nitrate this week is 4175.00 yuan / ton, which is stable. The current price is up 0.00% month on month, and the current price is down 4.02% year on year.

After the festival, the domestic potassium nitrate market fluctuates little, the floor trading atmosphere is general, the downstream factories take more goods on demand, the inventory is relatively sufficient, the rising power is insufficient, and the main stability maintaining state. According to the statistics of the business society, this week, the domestic potassium nitrate mainstream manufacturers quote 4000-4300 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to the different procurement situation.

Recently, the quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers is temporarily stable: the ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend is 2050 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the distribution quotation of Anhui Badou potassium chloride at the weekend is 2230 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. The actual transaction of potassium chloride market is not good, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream purchasing is mainly just needed, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

After the Spring Festival, imported potassium was slightly replenished, but the overall supply of domestic potassium was still slightly tight. The cost support is acceptable. It is expected that the potassium nitrate Market will be stable in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the main manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of the business society. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

From February 18 to 22, 2021, the spot market price of tin ingots rose from 164512.50 yuan / ton on February 18 to 191937.50 yuan / ton on February 22, up 16.67% in three trading days.

In terms of domestic futures market, three trading days after the opening of the stock market, Shanghai tin futures went through two trading limits. As of 13:54 on February 22, the main contract of Shanghai tin futures rose again to 194680 yuan / ton, reaching a new high since its listing. During this period, Lunxi also performed well. On February 22, in the three months of London Metal Exchange (LME), tin rose to 27000 points as of 9:30, the highest point since August 2011.

During the Spring Festival holiday, LME London Metal Exchange metal futures were almost all red under the leadership of copper, which was mainly affected by the expected increase of China’s demand and the expected global economic recovery. Copper hit the highest level since 2012. After the holiday, with domestic investors returning to the market after the holiday, it brought a wave of rising trend. Under the leadership of copper, the metal market was all red and a number of commodities hit new highs Point. Although LME tin inventory has a small recovery, the recovery is small, which can not offset the market’s concern about supply shortage.

The main factor driving up the current round of tin price is still tight supply: the problem of tight supply at the ore end has not been alleviated in early February. On the contrary, with the further aggravation of yinman’s shutdown, the official news of yinman’s resumption of production has not been received so far. Myanmar’s export situation has been poor since the impact of international public health events for 20 years. Tin has been facing the problem of supply shortage since last year. However, as the lower reaches of tin ingots enter the off-season and the supply and demand are weak, the market price has not been significantly affected. The domestic spot tin price has been in a stable upward trend. At the beginning of February of the 21st century, the turmoil in Myanmar has aggravated the transportation difficulties in some areas of Myanmar. However, according to the current news, the main ports have not been greatly affected, and the transportation has gradually recovered to the level before the turmoil. However, international public health incidents still have a certain impact on local transportation. With the sharp rise in tin prices, it will also drive the local mining enthusiasm. According to the current market views, tin production in Myanmar will rise to a certain extent in the future, which can alleviate some of the tight supply problems.

In the past 21 years, the whole non-ferrous metal market has been in a rising trend, in which copper, nickel, tin, aluminum, antimony, cobalt and other commodities have been in a rising channel since the second half of 20 years. In addition to their respective supply and demand factors, a large number of funds into the market is also one of the driving forces. At present, the futures and spot markets influence each other and drive each other. It is expected that the market will be in an upward trend in the whole first quarter.

From the perspective of domestic supply and demand, nearly 50% of the capacity of delivery brands is in the state of shutdown for maintenance, and about 80% of non delivery brands are out of production. According to the current news, the fastest time for these manufacturers to resume production is after the Lantern Festival at the end of February. However, the downstream of tin has returned to work earlier, and the demand for tin ingots is relatively stable. At present, the smelter’s orders in the first quarter are basically consumed. At present, the biggest downstream application of tin is solder. With the recovery of foreign market and the good support of electronic industry, the demand for tin ingot will maintain a steady growth trend.

Before the Spring Festival, the price of tin ingots has been in a higher position, and the downstream manufacturers have not prepared too much inventory, so there is bound to be a demand for replenishment after the festival. It has certain support for the rising market price of tin ingot. In the spot market, because the current price is already very high, the spot market is generally willing to rise, and the market has a strong wait-and-see mood. Although the premium performance is strong, but the lack of transactions, the market is in a state of price without market.

In the future, the Business Association believes that with the end of the holiday, the smelter will start operation gradually, which can alleviate some of the market shortage. However, the tight situation of the ore end can not be improved in a short time, but with the further rise of tin prices, the output of Indonesia and Malaysia and other major tin producing countries will increase except Myanmar. In the future, the rising trend of tin price in the first quarter is hard to stop, and Shanghai tin is likely to continue to set a new record in the future.

1、 Formic acid price trend

(Figure: p-value curve of formic acid product)

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of February 20, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 2650 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price before the festival (February 10) and that on January 20, with a three-month cycle and a year-on-year increase of 20.45%. After the festival, formic acid market as a whole maintained a stable price, downstream manufacturers to purchase on demand, finishing wait-and-see.

Upstream, according to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of upstream caustic soda was 472.50 yuan / ton as of February 20, which was the same as that before the festival (February 10); the average price of upstream liquid ammonia was 3300 yuan / ton as of February 20, which was 0.50% lower than that before the festival (February 10); the average price of upstream sulfuric acid was 342.50 yuan / ton as of February 20, which was the same as that before the festival (February 10) The price before the festival (February 10) increased by 6.20%; as of February 20, the average price of upstream methanol quoted by enterprises was 2267.50 yuan / ton, which increased by 0.67% compared with the price before the festival (February 10).

According to the price monitoring of the business community, on February 19, 2021, in the list of commodity prices, there were 33 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose month on month, among which 9 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 9.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities were hydrobenzene (15.81%), 1,4-butanediol (13.93%) and isooctanol (13.01%). There was a total of one commodity that declined month on month, and the product that declined was DMF (- 1.38%). The average daily rise and fall was 1.43%.

3、 Future forecast

Business community formic acid analysts believe that in the near future, the price of raw materials is stable and relatively strong, and the cost side has some support. In the process of downstream production, the overall trading atmosphere is mild. It is expected that the formic acid market will be stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, after the festival, the price of ortho benzene soared, and the domestic ortho benzene market rose. With the continuous recovery of the upstream and downstream market, the price of ortho benzene finally hit the bottom and rebounded. As of February 8, Sinopec’s price of o-xylene was 5000.00 yuan / ton, up 300 yuan / ton or 6.38% from 4700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (February 1).

Upstream market of o-benzene

From the price trend chart of mixed xylene, it can be seen that after the Spring Festival, the price of mixed xylene continued to rise before the festival, the price rose slightly, the cost of o-benzene rose, and the rising power of o-benzene increased.

Trend of downstream products

From the price trend chart of phthalic anhydride, we can see that after the festival, the price of phthalic anhydride continued to rise and fluctuated. Since late January, the price of phthalic anhydride has risen, the demand for o-benzene has picked up, the market of o-benzene is good, and the price of o-benzene has increased.

Future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, a xylene data analyst at business news agency, believes that the volatile rise of international crude oil prices during the Spring Festival has promoted the price rise of the downstream industry chain; during the Spring Festival, due to the extremely cold weather in the United States, crude oil production plummeted and demand increased, U.S. crude oil inventory decreased significantly, and crude oil prices rose more vigorously. The mixed xylene was affected by the rise of crude oil, and the pressure of mixed xylene in the future was greater, which supported the rise of o-benzene. For the downstream, phthalic anhydride market continued to rise, which supported the o-benzene market obviously, and the power of o-benzene rise was greater. On the whole, there is a strong driving force for the rise of o-benzene. The sharp rise of o-benzene price after the festival releases the upward pressure. It is expected that the o-benzene price will be strong and stable in the future.

On February 18, the overall styrene market rose sharply. On the cost side, during the Spring Festival, oil prices continued to be positive, and the price of styrene continued to rise today. However, the pure benzene port inventory is in the decline channel, coupled with the crude oil boost, it is expected that the center of gravity of pure benzene will continue to rise in the short term, which is good for the trend of styrene. On the supply side, domestic supply remains high, but imports are low and there is room for export arbitrage. At present, there are many failures in foreign styrene plants. Meanwhile, there are plans for centralized maintenance of Asian plants in March and April. It is expected that the supply of imported goods will continue to be tight. It is expected that the pressure of domestic main ports in East China will not be great, and low inventory will continue to support the price of styrene. Downstream, with the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the demand of the three downstream gradually returned to normal level, which brought support to the price rise of styrene. Today, the price of styrene in Shandong is around 8100-8300 yuan / ton, and that in South China is around 8500-8600 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda was weak. From the beginning of the week to the end of the week, the average price of Shandong market was 472.5 yuan / ton, down 18.53% compared with the same period last year. On February 6, the commodity index of caustic soda was 67.99, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 67.13% compared with 206.87 (2017-11-14), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 4.42% compared with 65.11, the lowest point on October 9, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At present, the market of caustic soda is weak as a whole, the atmosphere of conversation is weak, and the overall transaction is flexible. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda will be weak. The price of caustic soda in Hebei is stable for the time being. The mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is about 470-580 yuan / ton, and the downstream purchase demand is general. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range finishing operation of caustic soda will be dominant. The price of caustic soda in Shandong Province is weak. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 400-500 yuan / ton, and the downstream purchase demand is general. There is a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda. It is expected that the subsequent or narrow range of caustic soda will be weak.

Upstream: at present, the liquid chlorine transaction is acceptable, and the market price is continuously rising. Driven by the price of Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Northern Jiangsu and other places also showed significant increases. However, as purity approaches, prices may stabilize. On the downstream side, the downstream industry is in the off-season of production, and the demand side lacks support. Caustic soda has little change, downstream enterprises are basically in the state of holiday, and the demand for market purchase has decreased significantly. The price of caustic soda continued to be low, and the start-up of manufacturers was stable at more than 80%. However, most downstream enterprises have left the market, the market turnover has gradually declined, and the caustic soda spot presents a cumulative state. The good news is scarce, and the support for caustic soda market is still poor. It is expected that caustic soda will still maintain low-level operation in the short term. The purchasing of downstream enterprises is general, and the market price has little power to rise.

According to the price monitoring of business association, in the price rise and fall list of chlor alkali industry in the 5th week of 2021 (2.1-2.5), there are 2 kinds of commodities that rise, 2 kinds of commodities that fall, and 1 kind of commodities that rise or fall to zero. The main commodities rising were PVC (1.05%) and light soda (0.74%); the main commodities falling were hydrochloric acid (- 5.13%) and calcium carbide (- 1.08%). This week, the average rise and fall was – 0.88%.

Analysts from the business society believe that in the near future, the overall supply of caustic soda is sufficient, the overall ex factory price of caustic soda is stable and small, and the downstream purchasing demand is general, which has a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda. And near the Spring Festival, the downstream transaction weakened, caustic soda accumulation phenomenon. On the whole, it is expected that caustic soda will run smoothly before and after the Spring Festival, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of baking soda is stable for the time being. On February 7, the average price in the domestic market was 1496.67 yuan / ton. On February 7, the commodity index of baking soda was 99.34, unchanged from yesterday, down 18.36% from 121.68 (2020-10-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 12.54% from 88.27, the lowest point on December 22, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the news agency, the price of sodium bicarbonate runs smoothly, and the downstream market shipment is fair. At present, the price of sodium bicarbonate in Henan is about 1420-1600 yuan, which is the mainstream price in the market. The downstream demand is acceptable. It is expected that the price will be slightly consolidated in the near future. The price of baking soda in Hebei is about 1350-1550 yuan / ton, which is the mainstream price in the market, and the downstream demand is acceptable.

Raw materials: according to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic soda ash market is weak and stable. Over the weekend, the average market price was 1360 yuan / ton, down 12.26% over the same period last year. According to the business community, the domestic soda market atmosphere is light, downstream manufacturers are cautious and wait-and-see attitude is dominant. The price of soda ash in Central China is stable with small fluctuations. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1300-1400 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is general, and the overall downstream manufacturers are cautious. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be stable with small fluctuations in the short term. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1350-1450 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is general. The overall downstream manufacturers are cautious. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be temporarily stable in the short term.

Demand side: downstream medicine, textile and food demand for bicarbonate is acceptable, and the price of bicarbonate is stable. Analysts from business news agency believe that: the domestic soda ash market is temporarily stable, the market atmosphere is light, the downstream manufacturers are cautious and mainly wait-and-see attitude, and it is expected that the general market operation of soda ash will be maintained in the later period. The price of soda ash in the upstream market is more stable than that in the downstream market. Generally speaking, during the Spring Festival, the price of soda ash may continue to maintain a temporary stable trend. Specifically, it depends on the demand of the downstream market.

Zinc price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, zinc prices have fallen sharply since January, although zinc prices rose slightly in February, the amplitude of zinc prices decreased, and the overall zinc market was weak and volatile. As of February 9, the average price of zinc was 20210.00 yuan / ton, down 5.22% from 21323.33 yuan / ton in early January.

China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index

China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 51.3% in January, down 0.6 percentage points from last month, according to the National Bureau of statistics. It has been above the critical point for 11 consecutive months, and China’s economy maintains the trend of expansion, but the decline of the index indicates that the rising speed is slowing down. Around the Spring Festival is the traditional off-season of China’s manufacturing industry. In addition, the recent local clustering epidemic has a certain impact on the production and operation of some enterprises, and the overall expansion momentum of the manufacturing industry has slowed down. Zinc market rise support is still in, but rise support weakened.

Supply and demand of zinc Market

On the demand side, the Spring Festival is the traditional off-season of zinc City, and the demand of zinc city becomes weak seasonally. Due to the repeated epidemic situation, the strengthening of environmental protection measures in the heating season and the increase of natural gas prices in North China, the production of galvanized pipe and structural parts enterprises is stopped and reduced more, the number of downstream customers is increased during the Spring Festival, and the market transaction is light. On the supply side, the output of smelters remains at a high level, the supply of zinc market is sufficient before the festival, and the overstocking pressure of zinc market increases during the Spring Festival; zinc ore processing fees continue to decline, and the actual profit of smelters declines. During the Spring Festival, the domestic logistics stagnates, and the port zinc ore inventory is likely to continue to accumulate. However, if the cost of zinc concentrate processing continues to be low or the smelter is forced to stop production for maintenance, the risk of shutdown still exists. Generally speaking, the supply of zinc is strong and the demand is weak before and after the Spring Festival.

Analysis summary and Prospect

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business news agency, believes that: before and after the Spring Festival, the zinc market is a traditional off-season in the domestic market, and the demand of zinc market is weak; on the supply side, affected by the continuous decline of zinc concentrate processing fees, the risk of supply decline in the future zinc market is increasing. However, there are still great risks in the zinc market during the Spring Festival. The output of smelters during the Spring Festival is low, and the situation of smelters in the future is yet to be determined. The supply of zinc market is still sufficient. In the off-season of zinc market before and after the Spring Festival, the demand of zinc market is not enough to support the sharp rise of zinc price, and the zinc market is mainly on the lookout before and after the Spring Festival.

According to the monitoring of business society, the price index of domestic rare earth market continues to rise. The price of domestic PR nd rare earth continues to rise. The market price of terbium rises to a 10-year high, and the price of dysprosium reaches a 5-year high. The price of domestic rare earth market rises step by step. According to the rare earth plate index of business society, the rare earth index on February 4 was 478 points, up 1 point from yesterday, and 1000 points from the highest point in the cycle Point (2011-12-06) fell by 52.20%, up 76.38% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

From the rare earth index chart, it can be clearly seen that the domestic rare earth prices continue to rise, and the rare earth market has frequent changes recently, and the market prices continue to rise. In terms of products:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the domestic prices of praseodymium neodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy, neodymium oxide, metal neodymium, praseodymium oxide and metal praseodymium all rose. As of February 5, the domestic price of praseodymium neodymium oxide in rare earth was 464500 yuan / ton; the price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 575500 yuan / ton; the price of neodymium oxide was 572500 yuan / ton; the price of metal neodymium oxide was 710000 yuan / ton; the price of praseodymium oxide The price of praseodymium is 630000 yuan / ton, and the domestic market price of light rare earth continues to rise.

Recently, the demand for permanent magnets has increased significantly. New energy vehicles have been booming from 2020 to 2021, which has driven the development of many industries. The upstream material rare earth permanent magnet has also taken a “free ride”. The main rare earth raw materials of high performance NdFeB are light rare earth praseodymium neodymium oxide, heavy rare earth dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, which are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy-saving frequency conversion air conditioning, traditional vehicles and other fields. According to the data released by China Automobile Association, China’s auto sales will reach 25.311 million in 2020. Among them, the sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 1.367 million, breaking the historical record. Downstream demand rose, and domestic light rare earth market prices continued to rise. Recently, the domestic heavy rare earth market price of terbium series has reached a 10-year high, while the dysprosium series market price has continued to rise.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the domestic price of dysprosium series continued to rise, with the price of dysprosium oxide reaching 2.345 million yuan / ton as of the 5th; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy reaching 2.325 million yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium metal reaching 2.975 million yuan / ton. The domestic price of terbium series rose sharply, with the domestic price of terbium oxide reaching 8.825 million yuan / ton, and the price of terbium metal reaching 11.025 million yuan / ton. The price of terbium series rose to a new level in 10 years. There are several reasons for the sharp rise of domestic heavy rare earth market prices. First, Myanmar’s political situation is turbulent, and the global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products. The import source has decreased significantly. The sharp contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic heavy rare earth market has led to a sharp rise in the price of heavy rare earth. Second, the domestic rare earth purchase and storage plan is a good support for domestic heavy rare earth prices. In the purchase and storage plan, medium and heavy rare earth accounts for a large proportion of annual output, which is expected to have a greater impact on the supply, demand and price of medium and heavy rare earth. Third, in recent years, the downstream demand has been rising, the application of new energy has been growing rapidly, and the demand for permanent magnet has increased significantly, which has brought the greatest positive support to the heavy rare earth market. The price of heavy rare earth market has been rising continuously. Due to the tight supply of terbium market and the imbalance between supply and demand, the price of terbium market has reached a high level.

On January 15, 2021, the Ministry of industry and information technology openly solicited opinions on the rare earth management regulations (Draft), releasing the signal of standardizing the management of the rare earth industry and promoting the high-quality development of the industry. There are 29 pieces in the draft, which clarify the division of responsibilities of rare earth management, the approval system of rare earth mining and smelting separation investment projects, and the total amount index management system. It also emphasizes strengthening the management of the whole industry chain of rare earth, strengthening supervision and management. The state has made corresponding adjustments to the development of rare earth industry. The rare earth industry is developing towards high quality, and the policies are favorable to support the development of rare earth industry The local market price rose sharply.

The recent overseas economic recovery, especially the recovery of advanced manufacturing industry, is expected to drive further growth in demand. The domestic demand for new energy has increased significantly. In addition, the domestic rare earth supply is still tight, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the rare earth market is sharp. Business community analysts expect that the market price of rare earth will continue to rise in the future.