1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda was weak. From the beginning of the week to the end of the week, the average price of Shandong market was 472.5 yuan / ton, down 18.53% compared with the same period last year. On February 6, the commodity index of caustic soda was 67.99, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 67.13% compared with 206.87 (2017-11-14), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 4.42% compared with 65.11, the lowest point on October 9, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At present, the market of caustic soda is weak as a whole, the atmosphere of conversation is weak, and the overall transaction is flexible. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda will be weak. The price of caustic soda in Hebei is stable for the time being. The mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is about 470-580 yuan / ton, and the downstream purchase demand is general. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range finishing operation of caustic soda will be dominant. The price of caustic soda in Shandong Province is weak. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 400-500 yuan / ton, and the downstream purchase demand is general. There is a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda. It is expected that the subsequent or narrow range of caustic soda will be weak.

Upstream: at present, the liquid chlorine transaction is acceptable, and the market price is continuously rising. Driven by the price of Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Northern Jiangsu and other places also showed significant increases. However, as purity approaches, prices may stabilize. On the downstream side, the downstream industry is in the off-season of production, and the demand side lacks support. Caustic soda has little change, downstream enterprises are basically in the state of holiday, and the demand for market purchase has decreased significantly. The price of caustic soda continued to be low, and the start-up of manufacturers was stable at more than 80%. However, most downstream enterprises have left the market, the market turnover has gradually declined, and the caustic soda spot presents a cumulative state. The good news is scarce, and the support for caustic soda market is still poor. It is expected that caustic soda will still maintain low-level operation in the short term. The purchasing of downstream enterprises is general, and the market price has little power to rise.

According to the price monitoring of business association, in the price rise and fall list of chlor alkali industry in the 5th week of 2021 (2.1-2.5), there are 2 kinds of commodities that rise, 2 kinds of commodities that fall, and 1 kind of commodities that rise or fall to zero. The main commodities rising were PVC (1.05%) and light soda (0.74%); the main commodities falling were hydrochloric acid (- 5.13%) and calcium carbide (- 1.08%). This week, the average rise and fall was – 0.88%.

Analysts from the business society believe that in the near future, the overall supply of caustic soda is sufficient, the overall ex factory price of caustic soda is stable and small, and the downstream purchasing demand is general, which has a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda. And near the Spring Festival, the downstream transaction weakened, caustic soda accumulation phenomenon. On the whole, it is expected that caustic soda will run smoothly before and after the Spring Festival, depending on the downstream market demand.