From February 18 to 22, 2021, the spot market price of tin ingots rose from 164512.50 yuan / ton on February 18 to 191937.50 yuan / ton on February 22, up 16.67% in three trading days.

In terms of domestic futures market, three trading days after the opening of the stock market, Shanghai tin futures went through two trading limits. As of 13:54 on February 22, the main contract of Shanghai tin futures rose again to 194680 yuan / ton, reaching a new high since its listing. During this period, Lunxi also performed well. On February 22, in the three months of London Metal Exchange (LME), tin rose to 27000 points as of 9:30, the highest point since August 2011.

During the Spring Festival holiday, LME London Metal Exchange metal futures were almost all red under the leadership of copper, which was mainly affected by the expected increase of China’s demand and the expected global economic recovery. Copper hit the highest level since 2012. After the holiday, with domestic investors returning to the market after the holiday, it brought a wave of rising trend. Under the leadership of copper, the metal market was all red and a number of commodities hit new highs Point. Although LME tin inventory has a small recovery, the recovery is small, which can not offset the market’s concern about supply shortage.

The main factor driving up the current round of tin price is still tight supply: the problem of tight supply at the ore end has not been alleviated in early February. On the contrary, with the further aggravation of yinman’s shutdown, the official news of yinman’s resumption of production has not been received so far. Myanmar’s export situation has been poor since the impact of international public health events for 20 years. Tin has been facing the problem of supply shortage since last year. However, as the lower reaches of tin ingots enter the off-season and the supply and demand are weak, the market price has not been significantly affected. The domestic spot tin price has been in a stable upward trend. At the beginning of February of the 21st century, the turmoil in Myanmar has aggravated the transportation difficulties in some areas of Myanmar. However, according to the current news, the main ports have not been greatly affected, and the transportation has gradually recovered to the level before the turmoil. However, international public health incidents still have a certain impact on local transportation. With the sharp rise in tin prices, it will also drive the local mining enthusiasm. According to the current market views, tin production in Myanmar will rise to a certain extent in the future, which can alleviate some of the tight supply problems.

In the past 21 years, the whole non-ferrous metal market has been in a rising trend, in which copper, nickel, tin, aluminum, antimony, cobalt and other commodities have been in a rising channel since the second half of 20 years. In addition to their respective supply and demand factors, a large number of funds into the market is also one of the driving forces. At present, the futures and spot markets influence each other and drive each other. It is expected that the market will be in an upward trend in the whole first quarter.

From the perspective of domestic supply and demand, nearly 50% of the capacity of delivery brands is in the state of shutdown for maintenance, and about 80% of non delivery brands are out of production. According to the current news, the fastest time for these manufacturers to resume production is after the Lantern Festival at the end of February. However, the downstream of tin has returned to work earlier, and the demand for tin ingots is relatively stable. At present, the smelter’s orders in the first quarter are basically consumed. At present, the biggest downstream application of tin is solder. With the recovery of foreign market and the good support of electronic industry, the demand for tin ingot will maintain a steady growth trend.

Before the Spring Festival, the price of tin ingots has been in a higher position, and the downstream manufacturers have not prepared too much inventory, so there is bound to be a demand for replenishment after the festival. It has certain support for the rising market price of tin ingot. In the spot market, because the current price is already very high, the spot market is generally willing to rise, and the market has a strong wait-and-see mood. Although the premium performance is strong, but the lack of transactions, the market is in a state of price without market.

In the future, the Business Association believes that with the end of the holiday, the smelter will start operation gradually, which can alleviate some of the market shortage. However, the tight situation of the ore end can not be improved in a short time, but with the further rise of tin prices, the output of Indonesia and Malaysia and other major tin producing countries will increase except Myanmar. In the future, the rising trend of tin price in the first quarter is hard to stop, and Shanghai tin is likely to continue to set a new record in the future.