It can be seen from the trend chart that the domestic price of Dy 2O 3 rose again, and the market price was at a high level. As of March 18, the price of Dy 2O 3 was 2.955 million yuan / ton; the price of Dy ferroalloy was 2.94million yuan / ton, the price of Dy Metal was 3.55 million yuan / ton, and the domestic price of terbium was even higher. On March 18, the domestic price of terbium oxide was 9.9 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium was 12.45 million yuan / ton.
The sharp contradiction between supply and demand is the main reason for the sharp rise of domestic heavy rare earth market price.
On the supply side: Myanmar still forbids exports, and the global supply of rare earth is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products. The import source has decreased significantly. The sharp contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic heavy rare earth market has led to the high price of heavy rare earth. In February 2021, the opinions of the State Council on supporting the revitalization and development of old revolutionary base areas in the new era proposed to promote the construction of “China’s rare earth Valley” and study the policies for the purchase and storage of medium and heavy rare earth and tungsten resources, Medium and heavy rare earths account for a large proportion of annual output in the purchase and storage plan, which is expected to have a greater impact on the supply and demand and price of medium and heavy rare earths.
Demand: the downstream demand is expanding, and the demand for permanent magnet has remained high recently. New energy vehicles have been on fire from 2020 to 2021. According to the insiders, the rare earth gap is likely to continue throughout 2021. The main rare earth raw materials of high performance NdFeB are light rare earth praseodymium neodymium oxide, heavy rare earth dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, which are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy-saving frequency conversion air conditioning, traditional vehicles and other fields. According to statistics, new energy vehicles continue to break the historical record of single month sales. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, in February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 124000 and 110000 respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2 times and 5.8 times respectively. This month, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have set a new historical record for eight consecutive months. Downstream demand rose, it is said that the demand gap has been increasing. Due to the tight supply of terbium series market and the imbalance between supply and demand, the market price of terbium series has remained at a high level.
According to the monitoring of business society, the price index of domestic rare earth market rose. According to the rare earth plate index of business society, on March 17, the rare earth index was 564 points, up 1 point compared with yesterday, down 43.60% compared with the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (2011-12-06), and up 108.12% compared with the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).
The domestic rare earth index began to rise in November 2020. In the past four months, the rare earth index of the business community has gone up by about 200 points, and the price increase of domestic light rare earth market is also quite amazing. Domestic sales of new energy vehicles have increased, and terminal industries such as wind power and electronic products have developed rapidly. As the epidemic situation slows down, the capacity utilization rate of downstream manufacturers continues, and demand is mainly based on demand procurement. The demand for NdFeB is still high. The high prosperity of new energy vehicles and consumer electronics industry also promotes the rise of rare earth prices. According to the data, the global demand for high-performance NdFeB is mainly concentrated in the automotive sector (nearly 40% for traditional vehicles and 12% for new energy vehicles), while the rest, such as wind power, consumer electronics, variable frequency air conditioning and energy-saving electrical appliances, account for 8% – 10%. The downstream demand rose, and the domestic rare earth market price rose again.
In 2021, the first batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation total amount control indicators increased significantly, which is related to the strong downstream demand. The Ministry of natural resources issued the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining in 2021. In 2021, the total amount control indicators of the first batch of rare earth mining (rare earth oxide REO, the same below) in China were 84000 tons, including 11490 tons of ionic (mainly medium and heavy rare earth) rare earth ore and 11490 tons of rock ore The index of type (light) rare earth ore is 72510 tons. The first batch of tungsten concentrate (tungsten trioxide content 65%, the same below) has a total mining control index of 63000 tons, of which the main mining index is 46890 tons and the comprehensive utilization index is 16110 tons. In 2021, the total amount of rare earth and tungsten mining will continue to be controlled. The state policy is favorable, and the market price of rare earth will continue to rise.
With the continuous volume of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, the demand for rare earth will continue to increase, which is expected to drive the further growth of demand. The global supply gap of rare earth is expected to continue to expand, the domestic demand for rare earth will remain high, the domestic supply of rare earth is still tight, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the rare earth market will be sharp. Business analyst Chen Ling expects the rare earth market in the future Prices may continue to rise.