1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, the nickel price rose sharply on the 12th, of which the spot nickel was 146983.33 yuan / ton, up 4.22% in a single day; The main contract of nickel 2109 rose 4.55% in one day. Spot nickel rose 4.22% over the previous trading day, 14.71% over the beginning of the year and 32.16% year-on-year.

The nickel price has been falling weakly since August, until it rebounded from its low in recent two days, basically recovering its decline since August. In terms of supply, in the early stage, the supply of ferronickel was limited due to the counterattack of the epidemic in Indonesia. In addition, due to the lack of transportation capacity, the price of high ferronickel directly broke through the high point in 2017, forcing the continuous general rise of global nickel mines and strong cost support. At present, the overseas epidemic is serious, the epidemic in the Philippines and Indonesia affects export transportation, the return of raw materials is reduced, and the overall supply is still tight. Downstream, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in June was 256000, a year-on-year increase of 1.4 times. The production and sales volume of new energy vehicles from January to June increased by 2 times year-on-year, and the demand for new energy was at a high level; Downstream domestic stainless steel production and sales continued to rise, driving the demand for nickel. Low nickel inventory also supports nickel prices.

Forecast: Recently, the US Senate passed the US $1 trillion infrastructure bill, which will boost metal demand. The overall supply and demand is in a tight pattern, which has strong support for nickel price. However, there is still some pressure to break through the previous high of 150000. It is expected that the short-term high shock pattern of nickel price will be dominated.