Precious metal prices continued to move down this week

According to the data of business agency, on March 31, the average early price of silver market was 5001.67 yuan / kg, down 0.69%, down 4.08% from the average early price of 5214.67 yuan / kg in the spot market last Friday; Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the month (March 1), the early average price was 4928.33 yuan / kg, up 1.49%; Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the early average price was 4770 yuan / kg, an increase of 4.86%.

On March 31, the spot market price of gold was 393.93 yuan / g, down 0.04% on a daily basis, down 1.51% from the early average price of 399.98 yuan / G on Friday (March 1), and up 1.71% from the early average price of 387.29 yuan / G on the spot market at the beginning of the month (March 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the early average price was 372.37 yuan / kg, an increase of 5.79%.

Comparison of price trends of precious metal gold and silver in recent 1 year

 
In the long term, the price trend of precious metals tends to be similar, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Fundamentals list

1. Global official gold reserve data

According to the latest data released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as of the end of January 2022, the global official gold reserves totaled 35536.8 tons. Among them, the euro zone (including the European Central Bank) totaled 10772.5 tons, accounting for 52.5% of its total foreign exchange reserves.

Domestically, the latest data released by the State Administration of foreign exchange showed that the gold reserves of the people’s Bank of China remained unchanged at 1948.3 tons at the end of February, the same as that at the end of January 2022.

2. Overseas news

US President Biden proposed an annual budget of US $5.8 trillion for fiscal year 2023; The budget proposal predicts a deficit of $1.15 trillion in fiscal year 2023; The 2023 budget will raise taxes on the super rich and enterprises, and increase defense and police spending; The budget proposal requires people with assets of more than $100 million to pay at least 20% federal income tax. John Yarmuth, chairman of the House Budget Committee, said Congress may have to raise the debt ceiling around January 1, 2023. He said that raising the debt ceiling is a possibility, or use the budget process to pass. Earlier on Monday (March 28), US President Biden proposed a US $5.8 trillion budget, and the proposed tax increase reached a record high.

Future forecast

In the long run, the monetary easing policy is gradually ebbing, and the expectation of raising interest rates is expected to suppress the price of precious metals. In terms of futures, the night trading was favorable due to the conflict negotiation between Russia and Ukraine, and the risk aversion decreased on the news side. In the short term, the upward trend of precious metal prices is weak.

According to the bulk commodity list data of business society, the recent market situation of formaldehyde in Shandong fell. On March 31, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1452.50 yuan / ton, and on April 1, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1447.50 yuan / ton, down 0.34%. The current price rose 7.62% month on month, and the current price fell 1.31% year-on-year.

The recent formaldehyde market is weak and low. As of April 1, the mainstream market price in Shandong is 1460-1500 yuan / ton. Recently, the market of raw material methanol has declined weakly, and the cost support is general. Due to the difficulty of cargo transportation, the demand of downstream plate factories has weakened, so the formaldehyde analyst of the chemical branch of business society predicts that the recent price of formaldehyde in Shandong is dominated by a weak decline.

Aluminum prices fell slightly on the 31st

According to the data of business agency, on March 31, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 22640 yuan / ton, a daily decrease of 0.44%, a year-on-year increase of 31.81%, an increase of 0.35% compared with the average market price of 22560 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (3.1); Compared with the average market price of 20370 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1), an increase of 11.14%.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen 6.60% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 21.11% recently.

On the 30th, the domestic adipic acid market price fell, mainly due to the drop in the price of upstream pure benzene and the relatively abundant supply of adipic acid. The operating rate remained above 70%, but the demand was relatively low.

The adipic acid Market in East China fell. Today, the quotation was loose by 200 yuan. At the beginning of the week, the listing guide price of some large manufacturers was reduced by 500 yuan, and the manufacturer’s inventory pressure was obvious. The dealer’s offer is mainly low, and the market transaction is in the doldrums. The price of pure benzene fell and its support for adipic acid weakened. The downstream procurement is rational, and the demand is not large for the time being. The mainstream prices in today’s market are: acceptance price of 13000-13200 yuan / ton for Shandong source of goods and 13100-13300 yuan / ton for Jiangsu source of goods.

Adipic acid Market in South China fell, ranging from 100-200 yuan. At present, the market demand maintains rigid demand, and the market transaction is sluggish. This week, the manufacturer’s listing was temporarily stable, and the downstream procurement was just needed. Today, the mainstream price in the market is: the acceptance price of Shandong source of goods is 13200-13400 yuan / ton, and the acceptance price of Jiangsu source of goods is 13300-13500 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: adipic acid market is expected to have downward space in the near future.

Trade name: sulfur

Latest price (March 29): 3183.33 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the price monitoring of business society, the average price of sulfur in East China today increased by 5.86% compared with yesterday. The tight supply of port goods and strong quotation support the increase of domestic refinery quotation. Coupled with the positive impact of the continuous upward trend of sulfuric acid market, the downstream demand is strong, while the inventory of domestic refinery is low, the market supply is in short supply, and the enterprise sulfur continues to increase. There is little change in the price of sulfur fixation in regional refineries, and it is temporarily stable in Shandong. Only a few manufacturers in East China have increased by 50 yuan / ton and 100 yuan / ton in North China; Liquid sulfur increased more, with an increase of 350 yuan / ton in Shandong, 70-150 yuan / ton in East China and 200-300 yuan / ton in North China.

Future forecast: the short-term sulfur market will operate at a high level, with specific attention to the downstream follow-up.

Trade name: isooctanol

Latest price (March 28): 13200.00 yuan / ton

On March 28, the ex factory quotation of isooctanol in Shandong fell slightly, down 33.33 yuan / ton, or 0.25%, compared with March 25, and 1.49% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of propylene in the upstream was adjusted at a low level, the cost support was weakened, the downstream DOP market had a downward trend, and the downstream demand was weakened.

Recently, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong may fluctuate slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is about 13000 yuan / ton.

According to the sample data monitored by business society, the domestic ethanol market fluctuated in a narrow range from March 18 to 25. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic ethanol producers was 7225 yuan / ton, and the price rose to 7250 yuan / ton at the weekend. The price increased by 0.35% during the week, 4.50% month on month and 0.52% year-on-year.

Domestic ethanol prices rose this week. The market mainly fluctuates in a narrow range, and the raw material corn market is still at a high level. Affected by various factors, the operating rate in the main production areas of Northeast China decreases, the short-term supply is tight, and the market price is still likely to rise. Other regions are mainly affected by transportation factors, the arrival time is prolonged, the downstream demand is low, and the market is mainly waiting and sorting.

In terms of raw materials, the prices of raw corn and cassava rose slowly, the profit space of corn ethanol and cassava ethanol plants narrowed, and the cost pressure increased slowly. The high price of raw molasses continues to rise. Although the price of molasses ethanol has risen recently, it is still difficult to change the situation of serious losses of molasses ethanol.

Comparison chart of corn (upstream raw material) – ethanol price trend of business society:

Downstream products, the current domestic ethanol prices hovering at high levels, immediately entered the April, Baijiu demand or gradually increase, but the high price to continue to maintain just need to purchase. In the short term, the chemical industry continues to maintain the just needed procurement, but recently, with the rebound in the price of ethyl acetate, its acceptance of high price ethanol has improved.

Comparison chart of price trend of ethanol ethyl acetate (downstream products) of business society:

As of March 25, the latest price dynamics of ethanol market in various regions:

Region, Category, Price

Guangxi region, Honey alcohol, From 7400 to 7500 yuan / ton

Guangxi region ., Corn / Cassava 95% alcohol ., From 7400 to 7500 yuan / ton

Guangxi region ., Anhydrous ethanol, 8100-8150 yuan / ton self withdrawal

Guangdong region ,. Corn alcohol, 7700 yuan / ton self delivery in Dongguan

Guangdong region ., Rice / Cassava general ethanol, 7500 yuan / ton self delivery

Guangdong region ., Anhydrous cassava ethanol, 8200 yuan / ton, Dongguan self delivery

Sichuan region ., Corn alcohol ., 7600 yuan / ton, tax included

Yunnan region ,. Molasses alcohol, 6950-7000 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Shandong Province, General level ., 7700-7900 yuan / ton

Shandong region ., Superior corn ., 7300 yuan / ton

Shandong region ,. Corn has no water 8000 yuan / ton

Southern Jiangsu ., General, 7500-7600 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu ., General, 7200-7300 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu, Superior, 7400 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu ., No water, 8100-8200 yuan / ton

Anhui region ., General grade 7400-7500 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Anhui Province, Anhydrous 8200-8300 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Henan region ., Superior ., 7200 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Henan region ., Anhydrous ethanol, 8050 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Hebei region ., General level ., 6750 yuan / ton

Hebei region ., anhydrous ., 7600 yuan / ton

Jinzhou area, Liaoning ., Corn alcohol general grade ., 7350 yuan / ton

Heilongjiang Province, General, 6950-7050 yuan / ton, tax included

Heilongjiang Region ., Anhydrous ethanol, 6850-7000 yuan / ton

Jilin Region ., Ordinary alcohol ., 7050-7100 yuan / ton

Jilin Region ., Premium alcohol, 7000-7200 yuan / ton

Jilin Region ,. Anhydrous ethanol, 8000-8200 yuan / ton, tax included

The corn price is high, the cost continues to maintain a high level, and the downstream chemical industry just needs to purchase. The ethanol analyst of business society predicts that the domestic ethanol market will mainly be sorted out at a high level in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (March 24): 25500 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business agency, on March 24, the price of refrigerant R134a was temporarily stable, flat compared with the previous day, with a year-on-year increase of 24.8%. The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is weak and stable, the price of trichloroethylene is stable, and the cost support is OK, but the demand of the automobile market is still weak, the market supply exceeds demand, coupled with the intensification of local public health events, poor logistics, pressure on enterprise shipments, the price is stable and somewhat lower, and the actual transaction is lower than the offer. Up to now, the market quotation of R134a is mostly in the range of 24500-26000 yuan / ton.

R134a market is expected to operate weakly and stably in the short term.

The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on March 23 was 5166.67 yuan / ton, down 0.32% from the previous trading day and 5.77% year-on-year.

The ethylene glycol market is weak and declining today. Geopolitical conflicts continued, the high range of crude oil prices fluctuated, and the cost of ethylene glycol was significantly supported. In the afternoon, Meg’s outer plate was mainly subject to shock, and the ship cargo negotiation in recent months was estimated to be around 680 US dollars / ton. MEG imports from January to February were slightly higher than expected. At present, the port inventory remains high, and the upward space of ethylene glycol may be limited. As of March 21, the total ethylene glycol inventory in the main port of East China was 949500 tons, a decrease of 8100 tons compared with last Monday, a decrease of 0.85%, and a decrease of 6600 tons compared with last Thursday, a decrease of 0.69%. The downstream textile demand continues to be sluggish, and the production and sales of polyester are general. It is expected that the supply and demand situation will improve from April to May.

Forecast: lack of substantive benefits, bottom shock.

Trade name: monoammonium phosphate

Latest price: 3383 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of monoammonium phosphate was stable on March 22, which was flat compared with the previous trading day. Today, the high price of raw sulfur and phosphate rock is strong and the market is stable. Due to the support of raw materials and waiting volume, monoammonium phosphate is running at a high level. Today, the mainstream factory quotation of 55 powder ammonium in Henan is about 3500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream factory quotation of 55 powder ammonium in Anhui is about 3600 yuan / ton. The actual transaction can be negotiated.

Future forecast: the price of monoammonium phosphate will rise steadily in the short term.