1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business club, the average quotation of PS ordinary materials at the beginning of this month was 11416 yuan / ton, and the average price of EPS ordinary materials at the weekend was 11283 yuan / ton, with the price falling by 1.17% and increasing by 2.89% compared with the same period of the year.

2、 Market analysis

The trend of styrene in the upstream of PS is not good. In addition, some petrochemical manufacturers have increased and decreased, and some low-priced offers interfere with it. Merchants are not confident enough, or operate at a small margin. It is expected that the domestic PS (polystyrene) market will weaken slightly in the short term. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in East China market is 10400-11400 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of hips (polystyrene) is 10800-12300 yuan / ton.

Quotation reference of mainstream brands excluding tax: Zhenjiang Qimei pg33 is quoted at 10300 yuan / ton, ph88 is quoted at 10530 yuan / ton; Taiwan chemical 5250 reported 11600 yuan / ton, Ningbo Chemical 535n reported 10000 yuan / ton, Shanghai Secco 123p reported 10030 yuan / ton, Thailand Petrochemical 150 reported 11420 yuan / ton, Guangzhou Petrochemical 525 reported 9970 yuan / ton.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

At present, the downstream demand of PS is weak, and it is expected that the domestic PS (polystyrene) market will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business club, the average price of domestic rubber grade premium white carbon black was 6325.00 yuan / ton as of August 2. In July, the overall market for white carbon black operated smoothly, with little change in price. The price was mainly stable. The cost side of white carbon black was supported to a certain extent, the downstream just needed to purchase, and the willingness to stock goods was not strong. At present, the market supply side was normal, the market transaction atmosphere was general, and the overall market maintained a balance between supply and demand, The price fluctuates little.

In the first ten days of July, the market price of white carbon black has a stable trend. Compared with the same period last week, the price has not changed. The overall market supply and demand is balanced. The downstream just needs to purchase, mainly for contract customers. The logistics is smooth, and the market negotiation atmosphere is flat. The upstream hydrochloric acid: hydrochloric acid operates stably, the upstream liquid chlorine market has fallen slightly in the recent days, the cost support is general, the downstream ammonium chloride and polyaluminum chloride market have fallen slightly, and the downstream purchase intention is weakened.

In mid July, the market price of silica was stable, and there was no change compared with the same period last week. The overall market supply and demand was balanced. The downstream just needed to purchase, mainly for contract customers. The logistics was smooth, and the market negotiation atmosphere was flat. Upstream hydrochloric acid: the recent market of upstream liquid chlorine has declined slightly, with general cost support. The market of downstream ammonium chloride and polyaluminum chloride has declined slightly, and the downstream purchase intention has weakened.

In late July, the market price of silica was stable. Compared with the same period last week, the price had no change. The overall market supply and demand was balanced. The downstream just needed procurement was the main supply, mainly for contract customers. The logistics was smooth, and the market negotiation atmosphere was flat. Upstream hydrochloric acid: the recent market of upstream liquid chlorine has declined slightly, with general cost support. The market of downstream ammonium chloride and polyaluminum chloride has declined slightly, and the downstream purchase intention has weakened..

Chemical commodity index: on August 1, the bulk commodity price index BPI was 1049 points, down 1 point from yesterday, down 21.89% from 1343 points (2021-10-19), the highest point in the cycle, and up 58.94% from 660 points, the lowest point on February 3, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The white carbon black analyst of business agency believes that it is expected that the white carbon black market will operate stably in the short term, which can improve the balance of market supply and demand, and the range of price fluctuation is limited. (if you want to know more about the market dynamics of the industrial chain, you are welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business club, obtain commodity information, and master commodity prices).

Region, price (yuan / ton), rise and fall (yuan / ton)

Jiangxi, 10100-10500, -300

Henan, 10200-16000, -300

Inner Mongolia, 10000-10300, -200

Shandong, 10100-10500, -300

Fujian, 10100-10500, -300

On August 1, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 10100-10500 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of on-site merchants declined, the operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers rose, and the supply of on-site goods was sufficient. Recently, fluorite prices rose slightly, but the downstream refrigerant market remained low, and on-site procurement was not active. On the whole, it is expected that the price trend of on-site hydrofluoric acid will decline in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business news agency, the average market price of domestic caprolactam liquid on July 1 was 13666 yuan / ton, and the average market price of domestic caprolactam liquid on July 29 was 12633 yuan / ton. The domestic caprolactam price fell by 7.58% this month.

2、 Market analysis

Domestic caprolactam prices fell this month. In early July, the market price of caprolactam fluctuated slightly and rose. Most caprolactam manufacturers maintain their devices and operate at low load. The demand side purchases cautiously, with few transactions. From the middle of July, the caprolactam market continued to decline until the end of the month. The price of raw material pure benzene continued to decline, and the cost of caprolactam was insufficient. Downstream demand is weak, purchasing on demand, and the industry has a strong bearish mentality. The overall market is weak. As of July 29, the price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid was 14100 yuan / ton, and the 300000 ton / year device was under normal operation, and it was accepted and picked up by itself. The price of Baling Petrochemical caprolactam liquid is 14100 yuan / ton, and 450000 tons / year. The unit is normally started up, and the acceptance is self picked up. Shandong Hualu Hengsheng caprolactam apron price is 13300 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer’s device capacity is 300000 tons / year. It is accepted and sent to East China. Shandong Luxi Chemical caprolactam liquid price is 12300 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer’s capacity is 300000 tons.

Raw material pure benzene fell broadly this month. Due to the large number of downstream units put into production in the early stage, the scale of pure benzene only increased slightly, the continuous supply of pure benzene was tight, domestic trade shipments decreased, the high-level imports of superimposed outer disks decreased, and the ports maintained a de stocking state in the month. However, due to the continuous broad decline of crude oil and the significant decline of pure benzene in the external market, the support of external news was weak. In addition, the downstream load reduction, shutdown and maintenance increased, the demand follow-up was poor, and pure benzene was under pressure. This month, Sinopec reduced the price of pure benzene by 450 yuan / ton to 9150 yuan / ton (from Hebei and Shandong to 8750 yuan / ton).

The domestic market of downstream PA6 fell this month, and the spot prices of various brands decreased to a certain extent. In July, the operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant changed limited and remained stable at 70%. The supply side of PA6 is abundant, and the profit of polymerization enterprises is poor. During the month, the load of downstream enterprises decreased slightly, and it was heard that there was a backlog in inventory. In mid month, enterprises prepared goods to hold up the spot price, but the lack of support quickly fell back. The purchaser is still cautious in taking goods, and small order purchase just needs to maintain production.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Caprolactam analysts of business society believe that at present, due to the sluggish demand, caprolactam enterprises have suffered serious losses and the operating rate has declined. Downstream PA6 enterprises have a large inventory, and they just need to purchase raw materials, with a small amount of replenishment. In the short market, the trend of caprolactam is expected to be mainly downward in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the PP market fell in July, and the spot price of wire drawing brand fell. As of July 28, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8225 yuan / ton, up or down -4.45% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market continued to decline in July, with a monthly decline of 5.81%. In the middle of the year, there was a wave of price support in the market, but the feedback from the downstream was poor, and the return of gains went down further. The market supply is sufficient, the downstream gas buying is insufficient, the cost support is weak, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and only relying on the cost to support the bottom, the profitability of the overall propylene industry chain is poor, and the market price is under pressure. Long term bearish.

Propylene prices fell as a whole, crude oil fluctuated sharply under the influence of macro inflation such as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, and PP cost side support weakened in July. In terms of industry load, the operating rate of PP polymerization enterprises fell after rising this month. Enterprises independently reduced the negative diversion supply pressure, and the operation was biased towards digesting inventory. This month’s inventory was at a high level over the years. In terms of demand, the downstream factories of wire drawing materials purchase and follow-up are biased towards just need to maintain production. In terms of operation, they buy on bargain hunting and have a strong resistance to high price sources. Traders’ shipments gradually yield profits, follow the market, the effect appears at the end of the month, and the spot price gradually stops falling and stabilizes. The operating rate of terminal enterprises decreased in a narrow range, and it is expected that the spot market of PP wire drawing materials may rebound in a narrow range in the short term.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of July 28, the spot price of domestic fiber PP gradually fell. The mainstream offer price of domestic producers and traders Z30S (fiber) is about 8150 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of -5.05% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of -4.31% year-on-year. In July, the load of downstream non-woven enterprises, the main force of PP fiber, decreased, and the demand and operation of end enterprises continued on the whole. Large enterprises just needed to take goods to maintain production, and the load of small and medium-sized enterprises decreased or even stopped production. The consumption of products maintains the off-season mode, and the replenishment operation tends to maintain production. The demand for medical fiber products has also cooled, and the rigid support is weakened. The supply side is abundant. At the end of the month, the buyer camp bought on bargain hunting, and trading recovered. It is expected that the fiber material may rebound in a narrow range with the wire drawing material in the short term.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market fell in July. As of July 28, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the business agency was about 9366.67 yuan / ton, up or down -2.77% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month. In terms of international health events, the current situation in various countries is still not optimistic. Recently, the number of confirmed cases in China has increased, and the epidemic prevention pressure continues to fluctuate. However, medical meltblown cloth materials have entered the off-season of consumption, and the demand has decreased, which does not significantly support the spot price. The supply of melt blown materials in the market is sufficient, and the saturation of domestic melt blown materials and cloth enterprises is high, which together with the shipping resistance puts pressure on the spot price. At the end of the month, the market’s acceptance of the reduced price increased, and the price volatility stabilized. It is expected that the recent market of melt blown PP may pick up in a narrow range along with other PP varieties.

Aftermarket forecast

PP analysts of business agency believe that the domestic polypropylene market fell in July, the raw material propylene market fell, the decline of international crude oil intensified, and the cost side support of PP weakened. The demand of terminal enterprises expands slowly, the mentality of merchants is general, and the offer is subject to the market. At the end of the month, the price position hit the bottom and rebounded. It is expected that the recent PP market will be dominated by fundamentals and pick up in a narrow range.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6250 yuan / ton on July 1, and 5883 yuan / ton on July 27. The price of chlorinated paraffin fell by 5.87% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The price of chlorinated paraffin fell this month. In the first ten days of July, the price of chlorinated paraffin was stable. The domestic market of chlorinated paraffin is weak, the operating rate of enterprises rises, and the supply of chlorinated paraffin increases. The price trend of raw materials fell, and cost support weakened. The downstream demand is sluggish, mainly low-cost procurement, and the on-site transaction is poor. In mid July, the price of chlorinated paraffin began to fall to the end of the month. Due to the continuous decline of raw material prices, the cost support is insufficient. The market demand for chlorinated paraffin is poor, the transaction is weak, and the industry is mainly on the sidelines. Dominated by negative factors, chlorinated paraffin is mainly downward. As of July 27, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui Province was about 5800 yuan / ton, that in Northeast China was about 5800 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong Province was about 6050-6200 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw liquid wax, the price of liquid wax fell violently this month, and the market followed the change of crude oil price. In the first half of July, the price of liquid wax continued to decline, and the market trading was poor. In the second half of July, liquid wax rebounded slightly and fell again. It is suggested to pay attention to the change of crude oil. In terms of raw liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine fell first and then rose this month. In the middle and early days of July, the price of liquid chlorine fell broadly, the market on the floor was poor, the turnover was low, and some liquid chlorine enterprises reduced their load. In late July, the price of liquid chlorine rebounded and rose, and the market supply decreased, making the market better.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Chlorinated paraffin analysts at business news agency believe that due to the weak market trend of chlorinated paraffin raw materials this month, the cost support is weak. In the case of downstream buying up but not buying down, the purchase volume decreases. Although the market of raw liquid chlorine rebounded at the end of the month, the market demand for chlorinated paraffin was weak. It is expected that the chlorinated paraffin market will be dominated by weak and stable operation in the short term.

Last week (July 18-24), the market was dominated by bad news, the price of nylon filament continued to fall, the supply of goods in the market was sufficient, the cost side support was weak, the downstream demand continued to be weak, customers just needed to buy, the market wait-and-see atmosphere was thickened, and the trading atmosphere was not prosperous.

Nylon price chart

Price trend chart of nylon POY (86d/24f)

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the price of nylon filament continued to decline last week (July 18-24). As of July 24, the quotation of domestic nylon POY (superior product; 86d/24f) was 17075 yuan / ton, a weekly decrease of 275 yuan / ton, a weekly decrease of 1.59%. Nylon DTY (superior product; 70d/24f) quoted 19700 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan / ton, down 0.40% week on week. Nylon FDY (premium product: 40d/12f) was quoted at 20100 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 175 yuan / ton and a weekly decrease of 0.85%.

quotations analysis

Price rise and fall chart of nylon filament industrial chain

Cost side: last week (July 18-24), the average market price of raw material cyclohexanone fell from 10825 yuan / ton to 10240 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.40% during the week. The market of raw material caprolactam is poor, and the trend continues to decline. On July 18, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 13400 yuan / ton, and on July 25, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 12833 yuan / ton. The price of caprolactam fell by 4.23% during the week, with sufficient on-site supply and less trading volume. Most transactions are at low prices. It is expected that the caprolactam market will continue to decline in the short term.

Supply and demand: the demand follow-up in the downstream terminal area is also an important factor, but at present, the terminal demand has not improved. The terminal customers just need to follow up, and the downstream weaving factories are not enthusiastic about purchasing. Some customers are more oriented to production by sales, and in the short term, they mainly consume raw material inventory; The on-site supply of goods remains sufficient. Although some manufacturers have production reduction expectations, the on-site supply of goods remains sufficient.

Aftermarket forecast

Recently, the nylon filament market has been dominated by bad news, the supporting role of the cost side is weak, the supply of goods is sufficient, the demand side continues to be weak, there is no too much positive feedback at the end, and the market is dominated by bad news. Business analysts expect that the nylon filament market will continue to be weak in the later period, and the price will continue to fluctuate and decline in the short term.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable, and the domestic p-xylene price is 9550 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic p-xylene supply is normal, the domestic PX operating rate is more than 70%, the domestic p-xylene supply is general, and the overseas units are operating normally, so the domestic p-xylene price trend is temporarily stable. Recently, the trend of international oil prices has declined, and the external price of PX has declined slightly. On the 22nd, the closing prices in Asia were $1060-1062 / ton FOB South Korea and $1078-1080 / ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia is normal. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia is about 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia is normal. Chen Ling, PX analyst of business society, believes that the current short-term crude oil price has fallen, In addition, the PX settlement price of Sinopec fell sharply in July, and the downstream PTA and textile industry were weak. It is expected that the market price of paraxylene may fall in the later period.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of July 22, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial propylene glycol was 8933 yuan / ton, which was 2933 yuan / ton lower than the price on July 1, 2022 (the ex factory reference price of propylene glycol was 11866 yuan / ton), a decrease of 24.72%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that since July (7.1-7.22), the domestic propylene glycol market price has been running downward, and the market situation can be described as “falling repeatedly”. Since the beginning of July, the downstream demand of propylene glycol has been weak, new orders in the market are limited, and the supply and demand transmission is slow. The propylene glycol factory makes profits to ship, and constantly adjusts the ex factory price of propylene glycol downward. As of July 15, the low-end price of propylene glycol in the market has fallen below 10000 yuan, with a reference of around 9600 yuan / ton. However, the market price fell continuously, the downstream demand boost performance was still average, and the wait-and-see mood was heavy. In the late July stage, the market focus of propylene glycol continued to fall deeply. As of July 22, the domestic propylene glycol ex factory price was around 8500-9300 yuan / ton, with a decline of more than 24% in the month. At present, the atmosphere in the venue is poor, and the wait-and-see mood still exists.

The upstream propylene oxide market fell this week (7.18-7.21). Recently, the raw material propylene market has been reorganized and operated, and the cost support is limited. At the beginning of the week, the supply side devices are stable, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the market wait-and-see is weak. With the price falling, the factory shipment has improved slightly, but it is still general, some devices have decreased, the downstream procurement mentality is still cautious, and the market game is weak. On the 21st, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong fell to about 8400-8500 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 21, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 9733.33 yuan / ton, down 4.26% from Monday’s price.

Future trend analysis

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the propylene glycol market is still weak, and the support given by the demand side is general. The propylene glycol datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market is mainly adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and the specific trend also needs to pay more attention to the basic changes in supply and demand and the follow-up of new orders.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, isopropanol prices fell this week. The average price of isopropanol in China was 6975 yuan / ton last Thursday and 6775 yuan / ton this Thursday. The price fell by 2.87% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Figure: comparison chart of price trend of acetone and isopropanol

The domestic isopropanol market price fell this week. At present, isopropanol manufacturers mainly export orders. At present, the domestic downstream demand for isopropanol is light, the market trading atmosphere is general, the downstream orders are cautious, and the enthusiasm to buy is limited. Up to now, most quotations of Shandong isopropanol are about 6500-6900 yuan / ton; Most of Jiangsu isopropanols are quoted at about 6700-6900 yuan / ton. Internationally, isopropanol in the United States closed stable on July 19, while the European isopropanol market closed down.

In terms of raw acetone, the acetone market fell first and then rose this week. The average price of domestic acetone was 4920 yuan / ton last Thursday and 4800 yuan / ton this Thursday. The price fell by 2.44% during the week. At the beginning of the week, an unexpected shutdown of a domestic factory stimulated the market to rise. In addition, the higher cost side drove the positive offer of shippers. On the 20th, North China Petrochemical and Lihua yiweiyuan raised their listing prices, further supporting the market to rise. However, terminal inquiries increased, and there were few actual purchases. Some traders made profits and actively shipped goods. In fact, the market was high, but low, but the market as a whole was up. Raw materials rose, pushing up the atmosphere on the floor, but the demand side did not improve in a large area. The short-term East China acetone market negotiation was 4800-5000 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw propylene, the market price of propylene rose. The average price of domestic propylene was 7634.6 yuan / ton last Thursday and 7414.6 yuan / ton this Thursday. The price fell by 2.88% during the week. The downstream market demand is mainly rigid demand, the market is more wait-and-see, and enterprises are more cautious in purchasing. It is expected that the market supply will be loose and the price bottom will fluctuate in the short term.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The isopropanol analyst of the chemical branch of the business club believes that the domestic isopropanol market demand is relatively light at present. Acetone market fell first and then rose, the market rebounded, and the cost support improved slightly. It is expected that the isopropanol market will operate weakly and stably in the short term.