Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA6 market has increased significantly, and the spot prices have increased more or decreased less after the holiday. As of February 7, the average ex-factory price of domestic PA6 was 14500 yuan/ton, up 7.94% month-on-month (MoM), according to the data monitoring of Business News Agency.

Cause analysis

Raw materials:

It can be seen from the above figure that the caprolactam market in the upstream of PA6 has a positive trend recently, with a range increase of 13.65%. In the early stage, international crude oil rebounded after falling, and the price of pure benzene rose, driving the cost of caprolactam to strengthen the upstream. At present, the market supply is tight. In February, the manufacturer’s overhaul and restart plans alternate, and the caprolactam supply side pressure is low. On February 6, the price of the business club was 12766.67 yuan/ton, and the market was generally good, which may continue to be strong in the short term, bringing strong support to the cost of PA6.

Supply:

Before and after the Spring Festival, the load of domestic PA6 production enterprises increased slightly from about 67.8% before the festival to 70.8% at present, and the overall operation was stable. The total output in the week after the holiday is about 90000 tons. The market supply is stable. Due to the large number of orders and goods to be shipped in the early stage of the factory, the current inventory pressure of the factory is low, the market supply is tight, the supplier has some support for the spot goods, and the factory price is generally rising.

Demand:

In the early stage, the demand of the terminal factory fell due to holidays, and the downstream gradually resumed work in the near future. However, the increased load of downstream enterprises of PA6 is still low. The current starting position of domestic textile industry load is 21.9%, and the starting rate of nylon filament industry is about 55%. The consumption capacity of PA6 is generally maintained at the pre-holiday level, and the demand-side pull is weak. In addition, the terminal factory still has the stock to be digested before the year. At present, the purchase intention is cautious and wait-and-see. In combination with the above factors, the demand side support of PA6 is not strong, and the profit margin of merchants has been lowered.

Aftermarket forecast

Overall, the positive market of PA6 market after the festival is mainly driven by caprolactam at the raw material end. At the same time, the inventory pressure of PA6 polymerization plant is low, and the ex-factory price is strong. However, downstream enterprises resumed work slowly after the holiday, the load position only recovered to the low level before the year, the procurement follow-up was weak, and the market trading was weak. Some merchants have an arbitrage mentality, and the operation is biased to sneak down the goods, and individual offers fall slightly. It is expected that the domestic PA6 market will be limited in the short term due to the long and short entanglement. It is recommended to pay close attention to the flow of goods.