On October 8, the average TDI market price in East China was 21225.00 yuan/ton, 5.73% higher than that before the National Day, and the market price rose strongly. Market news: Shanghai Covestro’s opening quotation was raised in October, and the supply was still limited. The factory’s attitude towards the market was firm. At present, the spot supply in the market was tight, and the sellers were reluctant to sell. The offer was raised with the factory, and some closed offers were not offered temporarily. Downstream parties were wait-and-see, and inquired as needed. The dominant position of the market supplier was obvious, and the TDI price was high and firm.

The short-term TDI market continued to operate at a high level, focusing on market supply and downstream follow-up.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of September 30, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 8850.00 yuan/ton. In September, the DMF price dropped significantly, from 10625 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8850 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The overall decline in September reached 16.71%. At the end of September, the DMF price stopped falling and rebounded. The price has an upward trend, which is expected to continue to be strong until the first ten days of October. At present, the mainstream price of DMF is 8400-8700 yuan/ton, and the price is mainly strong.

In early September, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises as of September 7 was 10275.00 yuan/ton, down 3.29% compared with the price on September 1. DMF prices were mainly narrow and weak, and the overall market showed a downward trend. The mainstream price remained at about 10000 yuan/ton. As of September 6, the prices of upstream methanol enterprises in southern Shandong were concentrated around 2700 yuan/ton, while the local prices in Linyi were around 2760-2780 yuan/ton. The factory quotation of enterprises in the middle and east of Shandong is around 2680-2730 yuan/ton.

In the middle of September, as of September 19, the domestic DMF price continued to fall, 7.54% lower than the price on September 12, and the decline continued. The mainstream price range was 9500 yuan/ton. The atmosphere of transaction negotiation was general. The manufacturer gave up interest and took orders, and the shipment was slow. Downstream just needed to purchase.

In late September, as of September 27, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 8850.00 yuan/ton, down 0.28% compared with the same period last week. The decline slowed and there was a rebound trend. The overall DMF market price was dominated by strong operation, and the mainstream price range was about 8800 yuan/ton.

Chemical commodity index: On September 29, the chemical index was 984 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 29.71% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 64.55% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

According to DMF analysts from Business Agency, the DMF market is expected to run strongly in October, stop falling and rebound, and continue to rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of baking soda rose overall this month. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 2400 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was about 2612.5 yuan/ton. The price rose 8.85%, down 10.22% year on year. On September 29, the sodium bicarbonate commodity index was 173.40, unchanged from yesterday, 26.48% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 235.84 (2021-11-10), and 96.44% higher than the lowest point of 88.27 on December 22, 2020. (Note: Period refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business agency, the price of baking soda rose in September as a whole, and the downstream market has mainly purchased on demand recently. The current price of baking soda in Henan is about 2500-2700 yuan/ton. Raw materials: According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of soda ash rose overall this month. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was about 2630 yuan/ton. On September 28, the average market price was about 2670 yuan/ton. The price rose 1.52%, down 11.74% from the same period last year.

Demand: downstream medicine, textile and food demand for sodium bicarbonate is fair this month. Raw soda ash: According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of soda ash in this month has been consolidated. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2600-2850 yuan/ton. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2600-2700 yuan/ton. Data shows that the soda ash inventory this week is about 350000 tons. The overall trading atmosphere of domestic soda ash prices in September was fair, and the enterprise actively prepared for the National Day. In the downstream, the demand for sodium bicarbonate in medicine, textiles and food is better than before. The price of sodium bicarbonate is on the rise. In general, the price of sodium bicarbonate may run better in the short term, depending on the downstream market demand.

In terms of cost, styrene continues to weaken, pure benzene negotiation in East China is weak, and downstream demand in Shandong Province exists, but due to arbitrage, the industry is cautious. Today, the price of pure benzene in China is 7850-8100 yuan/ton.

Pure benzene weakened slightly; The supply and demand of aniline market is stable, and today’s price is relatively strong. Today, the price in Shandong is 12000-12300 yuan/ton; The price of aniline in East China is 12800-13000 yuan/ton.

On September 27, the price of acetic acid in East China was 3150 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.32% over the previous working day. The acetic acid plant in the market was loaded with production, and the supply of goods was sufficient. As the National Day holiday approached, the intention to prepare goods in the lower reaches increased. The attitude of the cargo holders was to maintain the price. The focus of market negotiations moved up, but the downstream demand was limited, and the purchase in the market was mostly followed up as needed. The market of acetic acid was not optimistic after the market rose. It was expected that the short-term acetic acid market would wait and see to sort out and operate, and the price would fluctuate, Pay special attention to the market transaction.

Trend Chart of Average Acetone Price in National Mainstream Market

The opening of the new week, the major mainstream markets continued the strong trend of last week and continued to report high. On Monday morning, we need to wait and see on the floor for discussion. The National Day is approaching, and most downstream markets have replenished. The spot supply on the market is still tight, the supplier’s offer is firm, and the terminal just needs to purchase.

The offer of acetone in major mainstream markets in China is as follows:

Region, quotation, rise and fall

East China., 5430., 50

Shandong, 5700., 0

Yanshan Prefecture., 5750., 50

South China., 5550., 50

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of steam coal is on the strong side this week. On September 22, the energy index was 1151 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 26.27% from the peak of 1561 points (2021-10-21) in the cycle, and up 125.24% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

In terms of production area, affected by the epidemic situation and safety production reduction, most coal mines now provide long-term coal, and the market supply is still tight. The supply is reduced, the market trading atmosphere is fair, and the coal price is strongly supported.

In terms of downstream ports, the price is mostly strong. Because the National Day holiday is coming, enterprises are actively stocking up, and the supply of coal falls short of demand. In addition, the overhaul of Daqin Line still has strong support for the rise of coal prices.

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, the national coal price rose slightly last week (September 12-18), including 1463 yuan, 939 yuan and 1469 yuan per ton for No. 2 smokeless lump coal, steam coal and coking coal, up 1.0%, 0.9% and 0.1% respectively.

Analysts from the business community believe that: the production of steam coal in the origin area is affected by the safety inspection and epidemic situation, the coal output has declined, and the coal supply is tight. In terms of downstream ports, most of them are strong. Due to the influence of goods preparation before the festival, the downstream users’ quotations are relatively firm. However, considering the impact of superimposed policies, it is expected that steam coal prices will mainly fluctuate, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the data of the block list of business cooperatives, as of September 22, the average price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 11266.67 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price on Monday, 0.60% higher than the price on August 22, and 39.43% lower than the price on a three-month cycle.

The epichlorohydrin market is stable this week. In the near future, the price of raw propylene is generally stable, and the price of raw glycerin is mainly stable. The cost support is still available, and the supply is sufficient. The downstream price is just in need of replenishment. The market trading atmosphere is flat, and the focus of negotiations is deadlocked.

The upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of the business community, on September 21, the reference price of propylene was 7430.60, up 4.65% compared with September 1 (7100.60).

For downstream epoxy resin, on September 21, the liquid epoxy resin market in East China was in a strong operation. The mainstream negotiation was conducted at 19500-2020 yuan/ton, and the overall negotiation was 200 yuan higher than the previous trading day.

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of the business community, at present, the prices of propylene and glycerin are mainly stable, the cost pressure remains, the supply side is sufficient, the demand side is flat, and the inventory of some factories is under pressure. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will be mainly stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

In the middle of the week, the domestic ethyl acetate market maintained a weak overall pattern, and today’s price did not change much. At the beginning of the week, the prices of large factories in Shandong and Jiangsu were partly lowered, with a range of about 100 yuan. The price of raw materials and acetic acid has stopped rising and fallen, and the cost is negative. The supply and demand of ethyl acetate is relatively weak. Although the supply pressure is not large, the current market operating rate remains at a low level, but there is no good on the demand side. The terminal procurement is cautious, and the rigid demand is mainly supported. It is expected that the ethyl acetate market will still maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the price implementation of raw material acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers. At present, the mainstream transaction price in the market is between 6600-6900 yuan/ton.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, as of September 20, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 481666.66 yuan/ton, which was the same as that of last Wednesday (September 14), 1.40% higher than that of August 20, and 1.76% higher than that of last three months.

Recently (9.14-9.20), the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market is stable. Recently, the upstream lithium carbonate price has been running at a high level, which provides strong support for the lithium hydroxide market. Large factories give priority to long-term delivery of orders. The spot supply of the market is still tight, and the downstream inquiry enthusiasm is good. With multiple supports, the lithium hydroxide market negotiation focus is running at a high level.

The upstream lithium carbonate market has risen since September. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of lithium carbonate was 494000.00 on September 19, an increase of 2.28% compared with September 1 (483000.00).

The lithium hydroxide analysts of the business community believe that the upstream lithium carbonate has obvious support at present, the supply side is tight, the demand side is active, and the market atmosphere is good. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market price will be strong, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.