1、 Acrylic acid price trend

(Figure: P value curve of acrylic acid products)

2、 Market analysis

Recently (7.1-7.7) the market of acrylic acid is mainly stable, and the prices of some enterprises have increased slightly. According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, as of July 7, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 7733.33 yuan / ton, which was 0.43% higher than that on July 1 (7700 yuan / ton), and 24.06% higher than that on July 1.

At the beginning of July, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 7700 yuan / ton. The price of raw material propylene was high, the cost was under pressure, and the low-end price of the market went up. On the 2nd, the market of acrylic acid was mainly stable, and some enterprises raised their prices. The price rose to 7733.33 yuan / ton and remained stable. At present, the price of raw material propylene is going up, the cost support is strengthened, the spot supply in the market is sufficient, the downstream start-up is relatively stable, the procurement on demand is the main factor, and the market of acrylic acid is stable.

Statistics of weekly operating rate change of acrylic acid enterprises:

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of acrylic acid of some enterprises in recent years (for reference only, the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated)

On July 7, the market price of propylene in Shandong continued to rise. According to the price chart of the business agency, the recent price of propylene fluctuates periodically, with a relatively stable price range. At the end of June, the price has been at a high level, stable at the beginning of the month, and then decreased continuously. After going down 200-250 yuan / ton, the price on the sixth day was adjusted back to about 100 yuan / ton. Today, it continues to rise by 50 yuan / ton. The market transaction is between 6720 and 7000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6750 yuan / ton. The inventory pressure of propylene manufacturers has improved, the crude oil price has slightly increased, the overall downstream market operating rate is ideal, the polypropylene futures market is good, and the purchasing enthusiasm is improved. It is expected that the propylene price will continue to rise slightly in the near future, which is good support for acrylic acid.

3、 Future forecast

Acrylic acid analysts of the business community believe that at present, the price of raw material propylene is high, the cost is under pressure, the spot supply is sufficient, and downstream procurement is on demand. It is expected that the market of acrylic acid will be strong in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the change of raw material price.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, affected by the tight spot supply in the market, the domestic acetic acid market continued to rise. As of July 7, the average price of acetic acid in East China was about 2483 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.43% compared with 2333 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 10.86% higher than the same period of last month. At present, there are 2450-2550 yuan / ton in Shandong, 2450-2550 yuan / ton in Jiangsu, 2550-2650 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, 2200-2300 yuan / ton in Henan, 2400-2450 yuan / ton in Hebei and 2050 yuan / ton in Northwest China.

Unit capacity (10000 t / a) unit output (T / D)

Yankuang Guotai 110.3000

Hualu Hengsheng 50.1500

Yangtze BP 50 1000

Celanese 120 6.17 Park

Jiangsu Sopu 120 7.2 parking

Jiantao, Hebei, 50.1400

Tianjin Bohua 35.1000

Henan Shunda 40.1400

Henan Longyu 50.1500

Henan Yima 25 parking

Shaanxi Yanchang 30.800

Shanghai Huayi 70 7.6 parking

Anhui Huayi 50.1300

Dalian Hengli 35.1100

At present, most domestic acetic acid enterprises mainly focus on delivery contracts, and the inventory of enterprises is reduced to a low level. In addition, the shutdown of large acetic acid plants in Jiangsu province leads to the shortage of spot supply in the market. In addition, the downstream market just needs to be stable, which is good for the market price support. The start-up of enterprises in North China and central China is stable. Due to the warm market transaction atmosphere and tight enterprise shipment, some enterprises are closed. The rise in South China is driven by the rise of other regions, but the demand in the downstream market is still weak.

In terms of the upstream market, the methanol market is in shock and adjustment. There are many maintenance enterprises in Northwest China, and they have a slight upward intention. However, the demand in the downstream market is weak and the mentality of the operators is not good. At present, it is about 1627 yuan / ton. On the downstream side, downstream industries such as vinyl acetate and acetate maintain rigid demand, and the overall operating rate is flat. Affected by the rising acetic acid of raw materials, the price remains firm, but in the long run, the demand side does not support the price of acetic acid.

In terms of the international market, the overall supply of acetic acid in Asia has declined. Due to the influence of international relations, the limited import of acetic acid in South Asia has led to the diversion of some goods to the surrounding markets, with the current quotation of about 280-320 US dollars / ton; the overall supply in the European market is stable, and the price is falling due to the sluggish demand for methanol and PTA, with the current price of 540 euro / T; the North American market is affected by the bullish demand for methanol and PTA, so the price is going At present, it is about 455 US dollars / ton.

The acetic acid analysts of the business club believe that the recent shutdown and maintenance of Jiangsu Sopu and Shanghai Huayi devices has intensified the market supply tension. Therefore, the East China region has continued to rise, driving the surrounding market upward. However, the downstream market purchasing is still mainly on the demand, and the purchasing is rational. It is expected that the spot supply will still be tight in a short time. Pay attention to the enterprise maintenance recovery.

June propane (Shandong) market twists and turns, the overall trend is up – down – up. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane market was 2975.00 yuan / ton on June 1, and 2927.50 yuan / ton on June 30, with a decrease of 1.60% and the maximum earthquake amplitude of 7.06%.

Regional specification enterprises rose and fell from June 1 to June 30

Shandong propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 HSBC Petrochemical 3050 yuan / ton 2980 yuan / ton – 70 yuan

Shandong propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 Hualian Petrochemical 2950 yuan / ton 2880 yuan / ton – 70 yuan

Shandong propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 Hengyuan Petrochemical 3100 yuan / ton 3000 yuan / ton – 100 yuan

Shandong propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 Haiyou petrochemical – 2850 yuan / ton-

Shandong propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 Binzhou Dayou 3000 yuan / ton 2880 yuan / ton – 120 yuan

At the beginning of June (1-7), the propane market was very happy. Prices ended the downturn, and finally ushered in a substantial rise. On May 31, the average price of propane was 2850.00 yuan / ton, and on June 1, the average price was 2975.00 yuan / ton, with a single day increase of 4.39%. On June 2, there were individual supplementary operations. The rise of international oil price has boosted the bullish confidence of downstream industries. In addition, with the introduction of CP in June, the price of propane increased by US $10 / T compared with that of last month, bringing a certain boost to the market. With the downstream buying up mentality, the enthusiasm for entering the market increased, the manufacturers delivered goods smoothly, the market transaction atmosphere improved, and the price rose.

Then, from June 7 to 17, the market opened a downward channel. During this period, the broad decline of international crude oil and import costs affected the market mentality. With the completion of replenishment, downstream companies have withdrawn from the market to consume inventory. At present, they are in the traditional off-season demand season, the terminal demand is reduced, the downstream replenishment cycle is lengthened, and the market transaction atmosphere is obviously weakened. Upstream interest to stimulate shipment, prices ushered in a sharp fall. As the price fell to a relatively low level, some downstream bargains entered the market, the upstream shipment situation improved to some extent, the inventory was released, and the price was slightly increased under the strong mentality, and the propane market rebounded. However, the current terminal demand did not significantly improve, and the propane market rebound was hindered, and fell again on June 21.

From June 22 to 27, the Dragon Boat Festival holiday was reduced, and the market was dominated by horizontal consolidation. Until the end of the month (28th), Shandong propane market again ushered in a rise. After the holiday, the demand for downstream storage and replenishment after the holiday is good. The overall market transaction atmosphere is OK. The manufacturers’ inventory is running at a low level. In addition, the price of civil gas rises. The market price in Shandong rises by 30-70 yuan / ton per day. On the 30th, crude oil pushed up in the morning, which brought good news to the market again. At present, the expected high price of CP in July has significantly boosted the market mentality. The Shandong market continued to rise, ranging from 20-80 yuan / ton.

Saudi Aramco CP announced in July that both propane and butane rose slightly, propane increased by $10 / T, and butane increased by $10 / T, bringing obvious benefits to the market.

The main reason for the downward shift of propane Market Center in June is that due to seasonal factors, the current high temperature and limited terminal demand significantly restrain the price upward. At present, the supply of port goods is relatively sufficient, but it is still moderate compared with the previous period. After the introduction of Saudi Aramco’s CP price in July, the propylene butane increased by US $10 / T, which brought certain benefits to the market. However, the traditional off-season in July did not end, and terminal demand still kept the price down. It is expected to rise in July or narrow shocks.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the trend of domestic PP market in June was narrow and strong, with different brands of materials up and down. As of June 30, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was about 7850.00 yuan / ton, which was 2.61% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of propylene upstream of polypropylene, according to the data from the bulk list of business associations, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price experienced two and a half rounds of ups and downs in June, with 6643 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, 6845 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 3.04%; the monthly high price appeared on June 4, at 6906 yuan / ton, and the monthly low price appeared on June 13, 6498 yuan / ton, with a monthly amplitude of 5.91%. At present, the market turnover is between 6750 and 7050 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6850 yuan / ton. At present, the pressure of propylene manufacturers to ship is small, there are many sets of devices to transmit maintenance information. Generally speaking, although the international crude oil market price has been slightly lowered recently, the future market is still ideal, which has a certain positive effect on propylene. Downstream prices have been up and down, but the operating rate is ideal, trading is more active, and manufacturers’ inventory pressure is small. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price may still rise in recent days.

 
Upstream propylene trend in June strong shock, PP (drawing) market in this month is relatively mild, but the market direction is still strong performance. According to the data monitored by the business agency, the lowest point in June appeared at 7650.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and the highest point appeared at 7850.00 yuan / ton on June 18. The monthly increase and amplitude were both 2.61%. The index showed that the domestic spot price of PP (wire drawing) fluctuated upward. On the supply side, there are still a number of devices have not been restarted, powder operating rate has also dropped. On the macro level, the overall market is helped by the demand, but at present, the downstream stock preparation tends to slow down, and the speed of market stock reduction is affected. On site petrochemical plant supports the quotation. In addition, the overall production of cracking units in Asia increased significantly this month, which is expected to suppress the price of propylene.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of June 30, the mainstream offer price of domestic manufacturers and traders Z30S (fiber) was about 7816.67 yuan / ton. 89% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month. At present, the domestic PP (fiber) price market is in line with PP (drawing) pace, the lowest point is 7750 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and fluctuates after rising. After the over production of PP fiber material caused by speculation in April and the rapid cooling of market atmosphere in May, it can be said that the hidden inventory caused by overproduction has been digested in this month. The “debt repayment” market of PP (fiber) material with “revenge” type has become the past. The market in June objectively reflects the law of supply and demand prices. However, at the end of the month, following the performance of PP (drawing) market, some merchants had poor shipment and insufficient follow-up of downstream stock purchase. At present, the market lacks the guidance of new good news, and the disk stalls.

The market of PP melt blown material is not satisfactory. At present, the price of domestic PP (melt blown) material has dropped greatly. According to the price of business agency, as of June 30, the average quoted price of melt blown PP for melt index 1500 was 19333.33 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous two months, the stock of meltblown materials “fell to the altar” in June, falling below 20000 yuan per ton. There are signs of rebound in recent public health events in China, and the international side has continued to deepen development. The increase in demand has not brought sufficient benefits to the domestic market. A large number of enterprises began to pour into the production line of meltblown fabrics and materials after 1997, but now it is difficult to produce N95 grade materials. The stock in the market is not small. Some substandard products can only be sold at low prices or converted to diapers and other products. In the early stage of the industry boom, the products lacked standards and profiteering, and the export regulations of high quality shielded some small and medium-sized enterprises with general technical ability, which showed that the health of the industry was worrying. The craziness of the industry has attracted the attention of the government, and the production of meltblown cloth in many places across the country is facing rectification. Domestic public health events are generally stable, and the demand for epidemic prevention materials is falling rapidly, which leads to the periodic oversupply. For example, most of the prices of epidemic prevention related products have fallen recently. Isopropanol, as one of the raw materials of disinfectant, has dropped in the last ten days of this month, reflecting the dispersion of demand for epidemic prevention materials. The explosive increase of participants in the production of PP meltblown materials has led to the uneven quality of PP meltblown materials and the “diving” in price.

Future forecast

Business agency PP analysts believe: June domestic PP spot market is stronger finishing. Upstream propylene market high consolidation, strong support for PP. PP (drawing) is mainly operated with high price, and PP (fiber) is also strong and strong finishing. PP (melt blown) demand weakened, prices fell sharply. At present, the reduction of the petrochemical plant’s stock is slowing down, and the petrochemical plant’s offer is intended to support the price. PP was generally helped by the recovery of demand, and the tight supply situation improved at the end of the month. The operating rate of downstream factories is average, and the stock order can be purchased as soon as it is used, which conflicts with high price goods. Business mentality temporarily stable, actual trading general. PP market is expected to weaken, it is suggested to pay attention to the further trend of supply and demand.

The domestic market of cyclohexanone rose first and then fell, and rose generally. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone producers at the beginning of the month was 5980 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic cyclohexanone producers was 6125 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an increase of 2.42%. The highest price was 6857 yuan / ton on June 13, with the maximum amplitude of 10.16% in the month. The price fell by 23.12% compared with the same period last year.

In June, cyclohexanone market rose first and then fell. In the first half of the month, the market of cyclohexanone rose steadily. The Shandong factory rose to 6800 yuan / T in the middle of the month. The main reason was that the spot supply of caprolactam was tight, the price continued to push up, and the centralized extraction of cyclohexanone. In addition, Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene for many times, and the spot price in East China market rose, forming a good support for cyclohexanone. In the second half of the month, with the conflict between the polymerization plant and the high price caprolactam, the supply of caprolactam was eased, and the quantity of cyclohexanone purchased from abroad was also greatly reduced. The shipment of cyclohexanone factory was blocked, the inventory pressure was increasing, and the supply exceeded the demand. The pessimistic atmosphere in the field was aggravated, and the price kept falling.

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene: the price of pure benzene in East China rose first and then fell. In the first half of this month, the price rose due to the rise of crude oil. In the second half of the month, the pressure of port delivery appeared, which suppressed the softening of spot price.

Caprolactam: the caprolactam market rose first and then fell in June, with a slight increase as a whole. In the first half of the month, caprolactam cost and supply side support were sufficient. At the end of the month, the pressure on the demand side was gradually transmitted to caprolactam. The inventory of terminal grey fabric increased to around 50 days, and the inventory of spinning link increased to more than 30 days. The pressure of polymerization inventory also began to increase, and the pressure of caprolactam demand appeared.

Adipic acid: the domestic adipic acid market showed a trend of rising in the first half of this month and falling in the second half of this month. With no obvious change in demand, it mainly follows the fluctuation of raw material pure benzene.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, in June 2020, there were 40 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, of which 18 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 20% of the total number of commodities monitored in this plate; the top three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (32.19%), ethylene (24.98%) and sulfur (24.05%). There were 43 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 17.8% of the total number of monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products were butadiene (- 16.51%), chloroform (- 13.04%) and acetic anhydride (- 12.50%). This month, the average rise and fall was 0.97%.

On the cost side, as it is expected that the pure benzene will be difficult to be removed from the warehouse in July, the port pressure will continue to exist, and the industry believes that there is still room for the price of pure benzene to decline. From the supply side, Fengxi plant of Yangquan coal company is planned to restart in July, and a small amount of Hongda in Shandong Province is exported. Although Jiangsu Haili has a plan to restart cyclohexanone, it is uncertain whether there will be external sales. All units are in normal operation, and the spot supply is expected to increase. From the perspective of demand, the price of phenol is still higher than that of cyclohexanone, and the preparation of cyclohexanone from phenol still has no advantage, and it is expected that there is still demand for cyclohexanone, The end market demand has not improved significantly, caprolactam spot pressure may further increase, and the overall output is not optimistic. On the whole, supply may exceed demand in July. Cyclohexanone analysts from the business community predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will be weak and pay attention to the external procurement of chemical fiber market.

In June 2020, the domestic BDO market continued to decline, the market center of gravity continued to move down, and the settlement price announced at the end of the month fell to the lowest point in the year. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the BDO price at the beginning of the month was 8280 yuan / ton, while that at the end of the month was 7940 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.11% within the month. The price fell by 13.70% compared with the same period last year.

This month, the domestic BDO market price fell to the year’s low, and the operation of deadlock. In the first ten days of June, affected by the sharp increase of raw material calcium carbide, most factories were in a state of loss, and the intention to yield profits was not strong. However, the support at the demand side is weak. In addition to the TPU start-up, the demand of the main PTMEG factory Xiaoxing is to be restored after the maintenance, and the other downstream areas have no obvious fluctuation, and they are still starting with low load. Manufacturers actively let profits and clear the Treasury, and the focus continued to be weak, down to the year’s low point. In the middle of the year, the operating rate dropped to less than 30% for the first time with the maintenance of Meike, Cathay Pacific, Shaanxi chemical, Panjin Dalian and Kaixiang. The inventory of some factories was controllable, and the supply side was good slowly. The mentality of the supply and demand side has changed, and the market has stopped falling and stabilized. In the late ten days, the market operating rate dropped to a historical low and the inventory atmosphere improved before the Dragon Boat Festival. The suppliers supported the market, and the offer was stable and slightly higher. The domestic BDO market bottomed out and rebounded, but the range was not large. There was no obvious increase in demand, the contract negotiation was the main task, and the acceptance of small orders was acceptable. The price of large orders continued to be depressed, and the market was stagnant.

In terms of devices, the restart time of Dongyuan, Ronghe and Xinye has not been determined; one set of device in Kaixiang, Henan is in operation, and the other is not determined; two sets of great wall units of Sinopec Ningxia are in operation; Shaanxi Shaanxi Shaanxi Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. has a load of 70%; Shaanxi black cat will be shut down for maintenance on June 25, with an estimated 20 days; Tianye phase I will be shut down for maintenance on May 18, and the restart time of phase II and III units is not available Panjin Dalian will be overhauled from June 10 to the end of the month; Cathay Pacific will be shut down for maintenance on June 10 for 15 days; Meike will be shut down for maintenance from June 3 to June 30; Hecheng coal company plans to restart in July with unknown time.

Raw materials: methanol: Northwest methanol market overall showed a low volatility trend this month. In the first ten days of the month, the stock price of upstream factories was stable, some traders and downstream bargains entered the market, and the transaction of new orders was relatively smooth; in the middle of January, the 600000 ton unit of Xin’ao phase I was temporarily overhauled, and Ningmei maintained a high level of methanol extraction, and the regional quotations were pushed slightly; in the last ten days of the month, the overall atmosphere weakened and the mainstream prices declined, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia maintained a low level of shock, and the atmosphere was general.

Calcium carbide: the keynote of domestic calcium carbide market has been lowered this month, the overall supply capacity of the market has been enhanced, and regional maintenance has been completed. In the first ten days of June, the calcium carbide Market as a whole entered the inventory replenishment stage. The upstream supply was sufficient, and the downstream arrival was significantly improved. With the callback of calcium carbide price in the market, the enthusiasm of various production enterprises to start work was continuously improved, the calcium carbide devices that had been stopped in the early stage also continued to resume production, the opening rate of PVA market was reduced, and the PVC aspect entered the maintenance period, so the demand was weakened.

Downstream, this month, domestic spandex PTMEG market light operation. This month, the market of PTMEG in non spandex field was weak. The PBT market rose slightly this month. This month, the domestic PU slurry market is weak.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, in June 2020, there were 40 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, of which 18 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 20% of the total number of commodities monitored in this plate; the top three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (32.19%), ethylene (24.98%) and sulfur (24.05%). There were 43 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 17.8% of the total number of monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products were butadiene (- 16.51%), chloroform (- 13.04%) and acetic anhydride (- 12.50%). This month, the average rise and fall was 0.97%.

In the future, the raw material calcium carbide continued to decline, and the support at the cost side was weakened; in terms of supply, Meike and Hechun coal storage were expected to restart, and some major factories were still in shutdown, and the supply might increase slightly. The demand side mainly digests the early stage inventory, enters the market to replenish the warehouse on demand, and conflicts with the high price. In view of the current inventory under control, manufacturers are willing to support the market, and the offer is more stable. Long and short hedging, the game between supply and demand continues. BDO analysts of business agency predict that the domestic BDO market will mainly run smoothly in July, and the possibility of upward trend is not ruled out. They will pay attention to the start-up of devices and the change of downstream demand.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of June 30, the average ex factory price of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China was 9457 yuan / ton, down 71 yuan / ton, or 0.75%, or 17.76% year-on-year. Due to the high price of cottonseed, low operating rate of oil cotton plant and limited output of cotton linter, the price of cotton linter rose in June, and viscose staple fiber went up, but the support of downstream demand was poor. Throughout the trend of the month, viscose staple fiber rose first and then fell.

At the beginning of June, cotton seed resources were tight, and dealers were reluctant to sell. At the same time, the operating rate of the oil cotton plant is limited, the output of cotton linter is limited, and the manufacturer carries out the goods at a price. The quotation of those with low inventory continues to rise, and the downstream purchasing behavior supports the price rise. However, the rebound of the U.S. epidemic situation and the global epidemic situation still drag down the economic operation. Reflected in the downstream chemical fiber plant, refined cotton plant procurement is still difficult to large, the price of human cotton yarn is lower, restricting the development of cotton linter market, stable in late June. Market transactions are still active and low production, cotton linter is expected to maintain a relatively stable state of operation.

According to the statistics of business agency, the commodity price index of viscose staple fiber and man-made cotton yarn on June 29 was 95.96, down 0.44 points from yesterday, 4.40% from 100.38 points (2019-07-21), and 12.99% higher than 84.93 points on January 05, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from January 1, 2019 to the present)

From the price trend chart of viscose staple fiber and man-made cotton yarn, it can be seen that the price of viscose staple fiber rose and fell in June, while the price of downstream cotton yarn went down unilaterally, showing no sign of rebound. Viscose and rayon yarn fell sharply in May, and the market in June was more stable than that in May. As of June 30, the average ex factory price of 30s cotton yarn in Shandong was 13867 yuan / ton, down 67 yuan / ton or 0.48% compared with the price at the beginning of June, and 19.73% year-on-year. People cotton yarn orders are small, leading to viscose drag, raw materials can not keep it, the price fell. Demand dominates the market. After all, it is meaningless to quote unreasonably high prices. There is still a big deviation in the market price. According to their own orders and capital situation, the Quotation Strategies of manufacturers are also different. Some people’s cotton yarn prices remain at a high level of 14000-15000 yuan / ton, and there are also 125000-13500 yuan / ton low-grade.

Business analysts believe that viscose manufacturers are not sure about the trend in July. On the one hand, cotton linter production is low, and the supply is limited; on the other hand, the downstream is depressed, and the price is showing a downward trend. Part of the factory simply stopped the production of viscose, out of the market struggle. It is worth noting that the recent epidemic rebound in the United States, the trade environment is still poor, viscose and rayon yarn are expected to be weak adjustment in July.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic light potassium carbonate was 6250.00 yuan / ton on June 1, and 6212.50 yuan / ton on June 29, a decrease of 0.60%. The current price fell by 0.60% month on month, and the current price was 6.23% lower than last year.

The market of potassium carbonate fell in June. The trading atmosphere in the potassium carbonate market was cold and the actual trading volume was insufficient. The attitude of potassium carbonate manufacturers was negative, and the downstream procurement was mainly required. At the same time, the plant operating rate was low, the overall inventory was low, and the purchasing market kinetic energy was low, and the domestic potassium carbonate market fell. According to the statistics of the business agency: this week, the mainstream factory quotation range of industrial grade potassium carbonate in China is about 6000-6400 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to the purchase situation.

In the near future, the domestic supply of potassium chloride in the upstream is sufficient. The port is in the process of arrival, among which the quantity of the southern port is higher than that of the northern port, and the overall source of imported potassium is at a high level, and the goods are moving slowly. The overall transaction of new orders is relatively slow, and the price remains stable. Limited support for potassium carbonate.

Potassium carbonate analysts of the business club believe that in recent years, the domestic potash fertilizer market is relatively stable, the domestic supply of goods is relatively sufficient, the inventory pressure is large, and the actual transaction is general. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly fall below in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business club for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.).

Commodity index: on June 27, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 85.66, unchanged from yesterday, down 20.04% from 107.13 (2019-05-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 0.14% from 85.54, the lowest point on June 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price quotation: Business Agency (100) ppi.com ）The monitoring data shows that the overall market of Polyacrylamide in June has a small amplitude dynamic potential; compared with the market at the end of May, the price of polyacrylamide (cation, molecular weight 12 million) in June stopped falling and remained stable until now. On June 1, 2020, the market mainstream quotation will be about 14000 yuan / ton, and on June 28, the market mainstream quotation will be about 14020 yuan / ton, with a callback rate of 0.14%, slightly adjusted.

Factor analysis:

First, from the perspective of industrial chain. Upstream acrylonitrile: from January to June 2020, the domestic market price first fell sharply, and then continued to callback to a certain extent. From the second half of April, it stopped falling at 6350 yuan / ton. After stabilizing for half a month, it started to rebound from May. The half month quotation went up by 800 yuan / ton to 7150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation in the second half was about 8000 yuan / ton. From June to now, after several small rebounds, it has stabilized at about 8550 yuan / ton in the middle of the year, and the quotation continues to rise in the last ten days. At present, the quotation of mainstream domestic manufacturers is about 8800-8900 yuan / ton. In terms of devices, four production lines of acrylonitrile unit load of sippon Petrochemical resumed on June 10, and the annual capacity of 260000 tons of units of Zhejiang Petrochemical was put into trial production on June 23. At present, the main domestic manufacturers of propylene The production of nitrile is normal. Downstream demand: in 2020, the polyacrylamide business is very difficult, and the industry generally does not have much expectation on the market, which is much worse than that in 2019. For the remaining half year of 2020, it means that the market may not be hot.

Secondly, from the perspective of manufacturer’s production. It is found that one of the main producing areas of polyacrylamide, Henan Province, has normal production and high inventory. The price of the main product specifications rebounded slightly in the second half of the month, and the basic stability is maintained: the price of cation and molecular weight 12 million is 14000-15000 yuan / ton; the price of anion and molecular weight 10 million is 8000-9000 yuan / ton, the price of molecular weight 12 million is 8800-9500 yuan / ton, and the price of molecular weight 14 million solid particles is reported Price: 9400-10000 yuan / ton, molecular weight: 16 million solid particles: 9800-10500 yuan / ton, molecular weight: 18 million solid particles: 10400-11000 yuan / ton, molecular weight: 18-20 million powder: 12000-12500 yuan / ton, non-ionic: 12000-13000 yuan / ton, and some specifications: 300-400 yuan / ton. The sales pressure of the manufacturers and distributors is still huge. The daily price fluctuation is a small range of flexible price adjustment, which has little impact on the transaction. Moreover, the enterprise said that the current price has reached the low price, and there is little room for downward movement.

Third, from the perspective of industry. Since 2020, the prosperity of environmental water treatment industry is poor. During the period from January Spring Festival holiday to February 20, relevant enterprises in the main production area stopped production and delayed resumption of work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production area gradually returned to work. In March, the logistics returned to normal, mainly consuming inventory. In April, the manufacturer’s survival was normal, the raw material cost was partially reduced and the demand was weak, resulting in the high inventory of the manufacturer. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery charge, the price of raw materials such as acrylonitrile rose, the factory price of polyacrylamide did not change much, and there was a lot of inventory; with the upstream propylene of acrylonitrile rising in the “propylene PP melt blown cloth mask” industrial chain relationship, the capacity of acrylonitrile manufacturers fell this month, which more directly led to the firmness of acrylonitrile price. Since June, the price of acrylonitrile has been stable after rebounding, but the range is relatively small. According to the introduction of the manufacturer, whether or not the raw materials are hoarded has different impact on the production cost. From the perspective of the whole industry, the demand difference is the fatal injury of the market. From the last ten days to now, the market is still that or that dull.

Future forecast:

According to the analysis of business association, the price of upstream raw material acrylonitrile has been rising since June, and the downstream demand end is still stagnant. The pressure of enterprise shipment is large, and the profit space is much smaller than that in 2019. The manufacturer said that the price is at a low level and it is in a state of low drop. For the future market, the expectation of small fluctuation is still maintained, and the possibility of big wave market is almost impossible.

From June 22 to 24, 2020, the weekly crude benzol Market recovered. The factory price in North China was 2890 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 2531.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly drop of 12.4%.

Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment in June 2020

Price adjustment amount after date adjustment unit: yuan / ton

June 5 3600 + 100 yuan / ton

June 10 3700 + 100 yuan / ton

June 15, 3600-100 yuan / ton

June 19, 3550-50 yuan / ton

June 23, 3500-50 yuan / ton

June 24, 3450-50 yuan / ton

This week, the new round of domestic crude benzol bidding price was significantly reduced in advance on the last working day before the festival. The bidding price of mainstream enterprises in Shandong Province was 2530-2535 yuan / ton, with a reduction rate of about 350 yuan / ton. Recently, the pure benzol market continued to decline. Sinopec adjusted the price of pure benzol to 3450 yuan / ton for two consecutive days, with a reduction rate of 100 yuan / ton. The external market of pure benzol also continued to decline this week. In addition, the crude oil market continued to decline The recent frequent rise and fall of the market has led to the aggravation of market wait-and-see mood. The high port inventory of pure benzene has affected the overall mentality of the crude benzene market. The bearish atmosphere is strong, the receiving situation is not good, and the crude benzene price is under pressure.

Since the middle of the year, the coking enterprises in Shandong have started to work better than the beginning of the month. The crude benzene supply is relatively stable, the overall inventory is on the high side, the cost pressure of the downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises increases in the near future, the recent unit restart of the hydrogenated benzene enterprises is more, the overall starting level is at a higher level in the year. Although the demand for crude benzene increases, with the comprehensive starting level of the downstream styrene, aniline and other products As a result, the downstream of hydrogenated benzene has been in a loss situation, with concentrated market negative factors, and the price of hydrogenated benzene continues to decline. The cost pressure of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is relatively large, which continues to suppress the price of crude benzene. As of the 24th, the market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong Province is 3100-3200 yuan / ton, with an average price of 3150 yuan / ton.

According to the business community of aftermarket, crude oil price is unstable, the market wait-and-see mood is strong, the high price of pure benzene inventory continues to decline, the social inventory of crude benzene has been high, coupled with the basic negative factors brought by the cost pressure of downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises, it is expected that the downward pressure of crude benzene Market in the near future is large, and the aftermarket still needs to focus on the inventory of crude benzene and pure benzene.