1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, domestic caprolactam prices rose this week. The average ex factory price of caprolactam on August 31 was 9450 yuan / ton, while that on September 4 was 9616 yuan / ton, up 1.76%.

2、 Market analysis

Caprolactam prices rose this week, the operating rate of enterprises was 79%. As of September 4, the price of caprolactam liquid of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was 9300 yuan / ton, and the factory had a production capacity of 300000 tons. The actual transaction could be discussed. Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid price is 10050 yuan / ton. The 400000 tons / year plant starts normally and the caprolactam unit operates normally. Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid price is 9900 yuan / T, 450000 tons / year, the plant is in normal operation, accepted and delivered. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical Company is 9900 yuan / ton, and the 300000 tons / year unit is normally started and accepted.

This week, the price of pure benzene in Shandong continued to rise. This week, due to the completion of maintenance of some downstream units in Shandong Province, the purchase enthusiasm for pure benzene increased, and the price of styrene rose, which led to the continuous pursuit of pure benzene. This week, pure benzene port inventory increased slightly, inventory pressure restricts the price rise. Downstream PA6 chip procurement positive, increased shipment, price rise.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts believe that raw material prices rose pure benzene, cost is good. Caprolactam supply decreased and procurement increased. Downstream customers cautious operation, continued to rise limited. It is expected that the market of caprolactam will be stable in the short term.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid dropped slightly this week. As of the end of the week, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 8480 yuan / ton, 2.19% lower than that at the beginning of the week, and 18.23% lower than that at the beginning of the week.

Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid price has continued to fall. Up to now, the mainstream price of domestic hydrofluoric acid is 7700-8200 yuan / ton. The domestic hydrofluoric acid trading market is weak. The negative factors of hydrofluoric acid price fall include the following aspects:

First, the market price of hydrofluoric acid raw material fluorite remained low. As of the end of the week, the domestic fluorite price was 2655.56 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic spot supply of fluorite was sufficient, and the on-site shipment was not positive, and the price of fluorite dropped slightly. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiation was RMB 2550-2700 / T. the decline of fluorite price was a negative effect on hydrofluoric acid market, and the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price declined.

Second: the domestic market of refrigerants is weak this week. Recently, the sales market of automobile industry is general, but the market of refrigerant downstream of the terminal remains at a low level. The demand for refrigerants has not been significantly improved. The foreign economy has been recovering continuously. However, the export of refrigerant terminals has not changed much. However, the domestic air conditioning industry has started to operate at a low level and the demand for maintenance and after-sales service is weak. On the whole, foreign demand is on the whole There was no significant improvement. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the market price is slightly lower. However, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, and there is a lot of wait-and-see mood. The actual transaction center of gravity is shifted downward. Some traders are looking for positive shipment, and the quotation is slightly lower than the manufacturer’s ex factory price. There is a phenomenon of cost inversion. The mainstream of on-site negotiation is 15500-16000 yuan / ton. The market of R134a in China continues to decline and has fallen to the bottom. The automobile market continues to be depressed with weak demand. The focus of market trading has shifted down and the atmosphere of transaction is light. With sufficient supply of goods in the market and the impact of new production capacity entering the market, the competition is fierce, the supply side gradually forms a negative situation, the price keeps falling, the downstream demand is not improved, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid falls slightly.

Third, the domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply is sufficient, the hydrofluoric acid on-site devices operate stably, and the hydrofluoric acid market price is lower. So far, the mainstream hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the southern region is 7700-8200 yuan / ton, and the hydrofluoric acid price in the northern market is 7700-8500 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price trend has continued to fall, some manufacturers reflect that hydrofluoric acid exists in the cracks, most manufacturers have losses, and the market is not good.

On the whole, affected by various negative factors, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price fell down, and the demand of downstream refrigerant industry did not significantly improve, the upstream fluorite price remained low, and the downstream refrigerant product price declined. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid from the business agency, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may continue to decline.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic LNG was 2430 yuan / ton on August 31, down 1.35% from the beginning of the month, 18.27% compared with the same period last year, and the maximum amplitude of this month was 3.88%.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In August, the domestic LNG market as a whole went down, rising slightly and falling sharply. The liquid price rose slightly in the first ten days and then continued to fall. In the last ten days, it rose slightly, but only lasted for a few days, and then entered the downward channel, with a decrease of 1.35% in the whole month. In the first ten days of this month, due to the increase of overhaul liquid plants in some regions, the output decreased, the on-site supply became tight, the shipment was smooth, and the contradiction between supply and demand was improved. The price of the gas in the superimposed way increased, driving the market to push up the mood, and the overall trend of liquid price showed an upward trend. However, due to the off-season factors, the downstream demand is insufficient to follow up, and the liquid price drops sharply around the middle of the year. In the last ten days of the year, due to the low price in the early stage and the reduction of supply in some regions, the delivery of liquid plants was relatively smooth, and the demand side was also improved. The liquid plants were boosted by this, and they had a tentative rise, but it was difficult to turn the tide around, and fell again at the end of the month. On the whole, in August, although the domestic LNG was actively looking for the potential and rising, the off-season constraints did not subside, and the liquid price rise space was limited, so the rise was less than the decline, and the market was still weak.

On the supply side, the overall operating rate in August was around 60%. This month, Huineng, Yangling, Zhongjing, Shouyang, Paisi, Mengxin and other large capacity enterprises shut down and stopped selling, which was good for the rising liquid price. At the same time, Guanghui Naomaohu, Sentai, Yida, Inner Mongolia and other enterprises started normal sales, and the operating rate increased slightly near the end of the month. The arrival date of this month was more intensive, which was reduced than before, but the market supply The demand is still abundant.

On the demand side, there was little change in the demand side in August, which was still in the off-season consumption. The demand for gas stations was stable. In addition, the rainy weather in some areas made the demand for vehicles not high. Near the end of the month, the downstream demand was slightly improved, and the sales volume of gas stations increased, which provided support for the rise of liquid price. However, the industrial gas consumption was not obvious. As the pipeline gas price was significantly lower than the LNG price, part of the demand was dispersed The downstream demand is stable with signs of recovery, but the pattern of supply exceeding demand is still in place.

According to the NDRC, the apparent consumption of natural gas in July was 24.63 billion cubic meters, an increase of 0.6% year-on-year. Natural gas production was 14.3 billion cubic meters, up 3.2% year on year. According to customs statistics, in July, the import volume of natural gas was 10.14 billion cubic meters, down 6.4% year on year. From January to July, the apparent consumption of natural gas was 180.24 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. Natural gas production was 109.25 billion cubic meters, up 9% year on year. According to customs statistics, from January to July, the import volume of natural gas was 76.88 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 2%.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of September 2, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas was 2430 yuan / ton, the price in Inner Mongolia was mostly in the range of 2350-2400 yuan / ton, that in Shaanxi was 2490 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was 2600 yuan / ton, that in Xinjiang was 2300 yuan / ton, and that in Ningxia was 2370 yuan / ton.

Enterprise capacity rose and fell from August 31 to August 1

Inner Mongolia Shitai 550000 m3 / D 2400 yuan / T 2430 yuan / T – 30 yuan

Star energy 1 million cubic meters / day 2470 yuan / ton 2460 yuan / ton – 10

Inner Mongolia Sentai: 1.2 million cubic meters / day: 2420 yuan / ton: 2520 yuan / ton – 100 yuan

Zhongyuan green energy: 3 million cubic meters / day, 2420 yuan / ton, 2500 yuan / ton – 80 yuan

Shengdazi Prefecture: 1 million cubic meters / day 2470 yuan / ton 2450 yuan / ton 20 yuan

Dazhou Huixin: 1 million cubic meters / day: 2950 yuan / ton: 2750 yuan / ton: 200 yuan

Ningxia Hongxing 1 million cubic meters / day 2360 yuan / ton 2500 yuan / ton – 140 yuan

Qinshui Xinao — 2600 yuan / ton 2400 yuan / ton 200 yuan

Xinjiang Qinghua: 300000 cubic meters / day: 3000 yuan / ton: 3000 yuan / ton

Naomao Lake in Xinjiang (east of Lanzhou) 1.5 million m3 / day 1600 yuan / ton 2150 yuan / ton – 550 yuan

At the end of the month, most of the downstream liquid ammonia Market stabilized, and the current round of rising market basically ended. However, it is expected that the ammonia volume will remain moderate in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic liquid ammonia market will consolidate at a high level in the near future, and the trend of various regions may appear certain differentiation. The market is mainly affected by large plants. With the recovery of plants in Shandong, the ammonia quantity will gradually accumulate, and the price may suffer upward To a certain extent, it is expected that the price of liquid ammonia will maintain range fluctuation.

Urea, the market fluctuated slightly, fell to. The upstream liquid ammonia has risen slightly in recent years, and the cost support is general. However, the demand for downstream agriculture is light, the starting load of compound fertilizer and plate enterprises is not high, the market trading atmosphere is weakened, and the middlemen are cautious in receiving goods.

At present, the market of dichloromethane in Shandong Province is at a high level and firm. The overall operation of enterprises has reached a high level, and the market supply is expected to continue to increase. As the price rises to a high level and the downstream market demand is flat, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the industry, and some of the receivers have a certain bearish mentality. It is expected to maintain stable operation in a short period of time, and it is necessary to pay attention to the inventory situation of enterprises.

3、 Future forecast

LNG analysts from the business agency believe that the domestic LNG market as a whole went down in August, rising slightly and falling sharply. Although maintenance is good to boost, but the overall market supply is abundant, demand follow-up is general. In September, the downstream demand is expected to turn better. In addition, the continuous rising of intake gas will boost the atmosphere of domestic LNG market. In the short term, the price will still fluctuate in a narrow range, and the future market will be better.

In August 2020, the market price of ethanol was mainly lower. According to the monitoring of business agency, the market price of ethanol was 6212 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 6100 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 1.81% during the month and an increase of 13.38% over the same period of last year.

In August, the domestic ethanol market was mainly downward. Corn raw materials, prices significantly lower. In terms of supply and demand, the ethanol supply increased significantly, the demand was relatively stable, and the transaction was weak.

In terms of logistics, the logistics price was stable this month, with the price of 270-280 yuan / ton delivered from Heilongjiang to Dezhou, Shandong, 230-240 yuan / ton from Henan to Hubei, and 250 yuan / ton from Henan to Anhui. There is little change in shipping price.

In terms of raw materials, corn: in August, the auction of state-owned reserve was still in normal operation. With the support of downstream demand, the auction of national reserve corn was hot at the beginning of the month. With the modification of the auction rules, the premium situation of corn auction was eased, and the average transaction price of national reserve corn auction at the beginning of the month was slightly lower than that at the end of July. The policy premium situation has eased, and the wait-and-see attitude of trade entities has increased slightly. Deep processing enterprises in Shandong and other places have slightly reduced the purchase price of corn this week, driving the overall price rise of domestic corn market to stabilize.

Ethyl acetate: in August, the domestic ethyl acetate Market was in a fluctuating downward trend, and the market showed a slight upward trend at the beginning of the month. After the middle of the month, the domestic ethyl acetate industry started to operate at a high level, and the market supply was sufficient, while the raw material acetic acid was gradually weak, which aggravated the unfavorable situation of ethyl acetate Market, and the competition among production enterprises intensified, which promoted the market transaction to fall to the end of the month.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in August 2020, there were 42 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, among which 16 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 17.8% of the total number of commodities monitored in this plate; the top three commodities that increased were polysilicon (53.96%), TDI (30.15%) and DMF (28.48%). A total of 34 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, with 8 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 8.9% of the total number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products of decline were hydrochloric acid (- 16.08%), isopropanol (- 15.12%) and acetic acid (- 10.13%). This month, the average rise and fall was 2.51%.

Business agency ethanol analysts predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market price consolidation.

In August 2020, the focus of domestic BDO market will rise, and mainstream manufacturers will raise the listing price once in mid month. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the BDO price at the beginning of the month was 7712 yuan / ton, and the BDO price at the end of the month was 8460 yuan / ton, with an increase of 9.70% during the month, which was the first price rise of this year. The price fell by 9.62% compared with the same period last year.

This month, the domestic BDO market continues to go up, and the mainstream production enterprises will raise the price in the middle of the month. This is the second mid month adjusted listing price this year. The market was boosted by an increase of 200-300 yuan / ton, including 8400-8500 yuan / ton in East China and 8500-8600 yuan / ton in South China. Spot supply is in short supply, some enterprises suspend export. The downstream demand is fair, and there are still some orders out of the contract. Near the end of the month, the mainstream negotiation of bulk water supply in East China is 7800-8300 yuan / ton, while that in South China is 7900-8300 yuan / ton.

In terms of devices, Ronghe, Xinye, Dongyuan and Tianye are in shutdown, and the restart time is not determined; Kaixiang and hecui in Henan Province resume normal operation within a month; Sinopec Ningxia Petrochemical Co., Ltd. operates at about 50%; Shaanxi chemical company operates normally and plans to overhaul at the beginning of September; Shaanxi black cat device has a load of 60%; Panjin Dalian overhauled on June 10, and the product is produced on August 14; the overall load of Guotai device is 60%; and that of Meike device is 60% 60%.

Raw materials: methanol: methanol market in August low finishing, the whole month price fluctuations are not big. According to the monitoring data of business agency, at the beginning of the month, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong was 1640 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 1622 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.07% within the month. Although there are mainstream production enterprises overhauling in the month, it has little impact on the market inventory. The downstream rigid demand is mainly used, and the overall market situation is relatively low.

Calcium carbide: the domestic calcium carbide Market as a whole is still rising this month. The main calcium carbide production areas in Wuhai and Wumeng are affected by irregular power rationing, resulting in regional supply shortage. In the first ten days of Qinghai Province, high prices were purchased, and the overall prices in Wuhai and Ningxia were increased. In the last ten days, maintenance was carried out, and the demand was reduced. At present, the supply of calcium carbide market continues to be tight, and the keynote of calcium carbide price rise remains unchanged.

Downstream, the domestic spandex PTMEG market is weak this month. In the first ten days of the month, the market started smoothly, and the downstream spandex was purchased on demand. The PTMEG factory was under pressure for shipment. The supplier’s mentality of shipment was narrow and the profit was negotiated. At the end of the middle of the year, the BDO of raw materials went up, the cost support was enhanced, and the intention of the factory to support the market was strengthened, and the offer was planned to be raised.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in August 2020, there were 42 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, among which 16 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 17.8% of the total number of commodities monitored in this plate; the top three commodities that increased were polysilicon (53.96%), TDI (30.15%) and DMF (28.48%). A total of 34 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, with 8 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 8.9% of the total number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products of decline were hydrochloric acid (- 16.08%), isopropanol (- 15.12%) and acetic acid (- 10.13%). This month, the average rise and fall was 2.51%.

In the future, the support of the raw material end is strong, the factory is still in a loss state, and the spot supply is tight, the supplier has strong profit intention, and the offer is above the high level. At the same time, the downstream start-up area is in a good state within the year, the consumption is fair, and there is little room for further construction and improvement. BDO analysts of business agency predict that BDO market will enter the traditional peak season, manufacturers’ intention of supporting prices will continue, and the BDO market will continue to rise in a short time.

Trade name: nitrile rubber

Latest price (August 31): 13583 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the domestic NBR market is stable, and the mainstream average price is 13583 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic NBR market offers are stable. The mainstream NBR n41 in Lanhua is 12000-12350 yuan / ton, 3305 is 12900-13100 yuan / ton, Nandi 1052 is 14800-15200 yuan / ton, and Russian nitrile 2665 is 12100-12300 yuan / ton.

The prices of butadiene and acrylonitrile continue to rise. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic butadiene price is 5387 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of acrylonitrile in Shanghai Secco is 7900 yuan / ton.

Aftermarket forecast: raw materials go up, NBR market is expected to rise slightly in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of August 28, the average ex factory price of domestic propylene glycol was 7800 yuan / ton, which was 66 yuan / ton lower than that on August 27, and 166 yuan / ton or 2.09% lower than that on August 24.

Today’s domestic propylene glycol market weak, factory offer again narrow adjustment

On August 28th, the domestic propylene glycol market was in a weak state. The on-site inventory was still on the high side, and the sales pressure was gradually increasing. The demand for propylene glycol in the downstream was general, and only rigid demand procurement was maintained, and sporadic small orders occupied a large number. In order to increase the shipping opportunities and relieve the inventory pressure, most of the manufacturers have cut profits one after another by reducing the ex factory price of propylene glycol by 50-100 yuan / ton. At present, the ex factory price reference of propylene glycol in Shandong is around 7800-7900 yuan / ton; that in South China is around 8000 yuan / ton; that in East China is 7700-7800 yuan / ton Near.

The current market prices of propylene glycol in some areas of China are attached (data for reference only, unit: yuan / ton)

Product name up and down on 8 / 27 / 8 / 28

Propylene glycol in East China 7900 7800 – 100

South China 8100 8000 – 100

Shandong 7900 7800 – 100

It is expected that the price of propylene glycol will be weak in the short term

This month, the import volume of propylene glycol is still high, which leads to the impact of domestic propylene glycol supply, accumulated inventory and weak downstream demand. In addition, it is not heard that the factory has maintenance plan in the near future. Under various factors, it is expected that the market price of propylene glycol will be limited in the short term, and the cost of raw material epoxypropane will still be able to provide cost support. It is expected that the price of propylene glycol will be weak and stable operation will be the main factor Individual manufacturers eased inventory pressure and continued to sell at a profit, driving the market down slightly again.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the external price of ethylene has risen recently. The average price of ethylene on 24 days was 681.25 dollars / ton, and that on the 26th day was 683.25 dollars / ton, up 0.29%. The current price is down 8.93% month on month, and the current price is 27.08% lower than last year.

Recently, ethylene is on the rise as a whole. Asian ethylene market prices rose, as of the 26th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at 715-725 USD / T, CFR Southeast Asia closed at 685-695 USD / T. European ethylene market price rose, as of the 26th, the European ethylene market price was FD, northwest Europe closed at 662-673 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe closed at 651-659 US dollars / ton. Ethylene prices in the U.S. rose to $506-518 per ton as of the 26th. Generally speaking, the ethylene market in Europe and the United States is on an upward trend, and the overall ethylene market demand is moderate, and the rise is not big.

International: on August 26, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices rose slightly, with the settlement price of main contracts at $43.39/barrel, up $0.04. Brent crude oil futures market price fell, the main contract settlement price to 46.16 US dollars / barrel, down 0.13 US dollars. Oil prices were basically stable on Wednesday, weighed down by concerns about demand during the outbreak. However, oil prices were also boosted by the closure of installations in the Gulf of Mexico caused by Hurricane Laura. Under the support of cost, the external market of ethylene increased slightly.

Recently, the domestic styrene market continued to rebound and entered the delivery period at the end of the month. Driven by the rising prices of some raw materials and the cost of holding goods, some markets were reluctant to sell at low prices, and the prices of production enterprises rose again. The supporting market still had room for improvement. Recently, the domestic operating rate is still high, and the port inventory is still high, so the effect of short-term de stocking is low.

Ethylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business agency believe that: at present, the market is focusing on the impact of Hurricane Laura on American refineries and demand, and the oil price is firm at a high level. Therefore, business agency data analysts predict that ethylene external price will rise next.

According to the monitoring of the business agency: in August, hydrogen peroxide first fell and then rose. At the beginning of the month, the hydrogen peroxide market fell sharply. In the middle and late ten days, it began to pick up gradually, and the price gradually rose. Due to the large decline at the beginning of the month, the hydrogen peroxide market remained mainly down in August. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 946 yuan / ton. On the 25th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 936 yuan / ton, with the price falling by 1.06%.

Let’s specifically analyze the reasons for the rise and fall of hydrogen peroxide in August 2020

In the first week of August, due to the downward trend of terminal caprolactam market, the market rise of papermaking industry gradually tended to be stable. The stock market of caprolactam manufacturers and paper industry ended, and the enthusiasm of purchasing hydrogen peroxide gradually decreased, and the purchase volume decreased, which opened a sharp decline in the market. The mainstream price has dropped to 900 yuan / ton, down more than 4%.

In the middle and late ten days, the terminal caprolactam is still weak and stable, and the paper industry market is stable, and the paper industry has begun to stock the market. Hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have increased the volume of goods, prices have risen, the rise has been close to the decline at the beginning of the month. As of August 26, the mainstream price of hydrogen peroxide in Hebei Province was 950 yuan / ton, that in Shandong Province was 880 yuan / ton, and that in Anhui Province was 980 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that at the beginning of the month.

Paper stock market starts, hydrogen peroxide market picks up

Since August, the prices of finished paper of leading paper mills such as Liwen, Jingxing and jinfenghuang have been reduced, and the price drop has spread to seven provinces. There was little trading in the base paper market, and the pressure of market sales increased. Imported paper products began to arrive in Hong Kong, which had a certain impact on the domestic market. The paper market ushered in a small decline. In the middle and late ten days, the traditional paper stock period is approaching, the paper price is relatively stable, the enthusiasm of purchasing hydrogen peroxide is rising, and the hydrogen peroxide market transaction is improving. Manufacturers begin to raise the ex factory price of hydrogen peroxide, and the price of hydrogen peroxide rises by about 30-50 yuan / ton.

Hydrogen peroxide analysts believe that: the paper industry gold nine silver ten is coming, manufacturers inventory replenishment is positive, terminal demand support, hydrogen peroxide future market growth is expected.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, since August, the domestic raw silk market as a whole has shown a shock rise. As of August 25, the average price of raw silk market was 282550 yuan / ton, up 2.75% compared with the beginning of the month. As of August 25, the average market price was 89200 yuan / ton, down 1.44% from the beginning of the month. At present, the price of dried cocoon is 93000 yuan / ton in Jiaxing of Zhejiang Province, 285000 yuan / ton of raw silk, 85400 yuan / ton of dried cocoon and 280100 yuan / ton of raw silk in Guangxi.

The autumn cocoons in Guangxi silkworm region are about to be fully listed. The first batch of autumn cocoons in Xincheng, Guangxi, have entered the peak period of listing. It was learned from some local cocoon stations on August 24 that the local autumn cocoons have gradually increased in the past two days. At present, the average purchase price of fresh cocoons is about 30 yuan / kg, which is higher than the purchase price at the initial stage of listing. Autumn cocoons in Xuzhou District, Yibin City, Sichuan Province, have been put on the market with the purchase price of about 30-32 yuan / kg.

This year, affected by the uncertainty of cocoon and silk market, the aging of sericulture farmers and the reduction of mulberry garden area, the number of silkworm orders in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased. The mid autumn silkworm eggs will be released from August 20 to 21 in Jiaxing, Zhejiang Province. Jiaxing City has ordered 11746.75 mid autumn silkworm eggs, with a year-on-year decrease of 3164.25 or 21.2%. Among them, Tongxiang City, a key silkworm District, has ordered 9475.5 mid autumn silkworm eggs, with a year-on-year decrease of 2924.5, a decrease of 23.6%; Xiuzhou District has ordered 217.25 pieces of mid autumn silkworm eggs, with a year-on-year decrease of 77.75 pieces, a decrease of 26.3%; Haining City has ordered a mid autumn festival silkworm eggs There were 1690 silkworm eggs, with an increase of 180 or 11.9% over the same period of last year, which was the only increase unit in Jiaxing Sericulture Area. The mid autumn silkworm eggs in Tongzhou District, Nantong City, Jiangsu Province, were put out of the warehouse on August 25. After incubation, the silkworm eggs will be distributed to the small silkworm co breeding room on September 3, one day later than last year. 826 silkworm eggs have been ordered for the Mid Autumn Festival, with a decrease of 74 or 8.2% over the same period of last year.

From the perspective of downstream fabrics, “gold nine silver ten” is coming soon. The downstream demand of China Light and textile city will increase slightly, and the batch trial orders of fabrics in early winter will increase slightly. The enthusiasm of North and South merchants for subscription will rise slightly, and the marketing trend will increase slightly. The marketing will be weak day by day, and the overall market transaction will show a small upward trend. Therefore, it also drives the production enthusiasm of manufacturers. If the future market continues to improve, then the market inventory will slow down, but it is expected that the “quality” will certainly not be compared with the previous years.

From the industry point of view, the consumption capacity and willingness of textile and clothing have declined. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in July 2020, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China totaled 322.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, 0.7 percentage points narrower than that of the previous month. From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 20445.9 billion yuan, down 9.9% year on year. In terms of textile and clothing retail, the total retail sales of national textile and clothing reached 88.9 billion yuan in July, a decrease of 2.5% compared with the same period last year. From January to July, China’s total retail sales of textile and clothing exceeded 595.9 billion yuan, down 17.5% year-on-year.

In terms of export, according to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, in July 2020, China’s textile and clothing export volume was 31.294 billion US dollars, a month on month increase of 7.79%. Among them, the export volume of textiles (including textile yarn, fabrics and products) was 15.976.9 billion US dollars, down 1.11% month on month; the export volume of clothing (including clothing and clothing accessories) was 15.3175 billion US dollars, an increase of 18.97% on a month on month basis. From January to July, China’s textile and clothing exports amounted to 156.482 billion US dollars, an increase of 5.57% over the same period of last year, of which the cumulative export of textiles was US $90.080.4 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 31.25%; and that of clothing was 66.402 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 16.58%.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that at the end of the seasonal off-season in China, the demand for cocoon silk has rebounded. However, the recovery and long-term development of the domestic economy are facing unprecedented challenges. Residents’ consumption capacity and willingness to consume textile and clothing have declined significantly, and the recovery speed is slow. The profit of domestic textile industry is further compressed, and it is still in the stage of price reduction and inventory removal, and the seasonal recovery is not obvious, so the support for cocoon and silk price is relatively limited. However, with the listing of autumn cocoons in Guangxi, the cost of raw materials may form a certain support for the silk price. It is expected that in the short term, the price of cocoon and silk will show a trend of concussion and warmer.