Price Trend

The domestic aggregate MDI market has a narrow fluctuation. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the average price of domestic aggregate MDI market was 13 500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 135 0150 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price of aggregate MDI fell by 2.59% in the month, 23.99% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: In August, domestic aggregated MDI prices fluctuated slightly, showing a first fall and then rise. Ring prices fell by 500-800 yuan/ton compared with July. At present, the market price is around 12600 yuan/ton for Shanghai goods and 13200 yuan/ton for Wanhua goods. Based on Wanhua’s early announcement of settlement price in early August, the overall market price declined slightly under cost support. In fact, the mentality of traders is not good throughout the month. Some middlemen are not lack of low-cost goods, so it is safe to drop bags. However, due to cost constraints, agents generally offer high prices, careful delivery.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: this month, pure benzene first fell and then rose, the external market rose and domestic supply decreased to support the price rebound. At the beginning of this month, commodities fell as a whole and pure benzene weakened under the pressure of negative macroeconomic news, such as unoptimistic expectations of Sino-US negotiations and depreciation of the RMB. The sharp drop in crude oil also led to the weakening of the outer plate of pure benzene. As a result, the price of pure benzene has continued to decline. Downstream users wait for Sinopec to cut prices, wait and see, market turnover is weak. At the beginning of this month, there were still sporadic transactions of 5000 yuan/ton, but then driven by the low-price supply in Shandong Province, the market buying gravity dropped to 4900-4950 yuan/ton.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in August 2019, there were 37 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 15 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 17.9% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (39.93%), acetic acid (20.90%) and butadiene (14.47%). There are 39 kinds of products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 15.5% of the monitored products in this sector. The products with the first three declines are yellow phosphorus (-27.58%), epichlorohydrin (-23.28%) and sulfur (-19.38%). This month’s average rise and fall was 0.03%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Viewpoint: In August, stimulated by the release of good news from supplier factories, market prices were supported by this “fairy spirit” and survived through August. Supplier factories are still in a good market in September, but demand side is hard to change at present. Business associations aggregate MDI analysts expect that short-term aggregate MDI market prices will be stable, and look forward to the price guidelines of Koth founder and Basf supplier policies and settlement prices at the beginning of the month.