A Survey of the Price Trend of Aluminum Ingot in August

Domestic aluminium ingot prices rose steadily in August. According to data from business associations, the average market price of aluminium (99.70) as of August 27 was 14290 yuan/ton, which was 2.90% higher than the average market price of 13866.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year (August 1).

It is reported that in mid-August, the market was affected by Typhoon Lichma. The market predicted that the production capacity of electrolytic aluminium in Shandong would decrease (Weiqiao 105,000 tons of electrolytic aluminium capacity was forced to stop production voluntarily). The Xinjian Xinfa accident was superimposed. The market information factors were obvious, the price of aluminium ingots increased substantially, and the current high-level shocks were running.

A Survey of Import and Export Data of Aluminum in July

According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, in July 2019, the export volume of unwrought rolled aluminium (including aluminium alloy) in China was 39582.00 tons, with a cumulative export volume of 366582.00 tons, a decrease of 8.40% and a cumulative increase of 18.30%.

In July 2019, China’s total exports of aluminium foil under five tax codes totaled 113,100 tons, and in June, 115,900 tons, a drop of 2.39% compared with the previous year’s. Last July, China’s exports of aluminium foil totaled 109,700 tons, up by 3.08% compared with the previous year.

In July 2019, China imported 33118.00 tons of aluminium materials, with a cumulative import of 197961.00 tons, a decrease of 0.60% and a cumulative decrease of 16.30%.

In July 2019, China imported 20 million tons of alumina, a cumulative import of 52 million tons, an increase of 3286.00% and a cumulative increase of 44.80%.

In July 2019, the import volume of unwrought rolled aluminium (including aluminium alloy) was 25273.00 tons, with a cumulative import volume of 116300.00 tons, an increase of 113.90% and a cumulative increase of 57.60%.

In July 2019, the export volume of unwrought rolled aluminium (including aluminium alloy) in China was 39582.00 tons, with a cumulative export volume of 366582.00 tons, a decrease of 8.40% and an increase of 18.30%.

Summary of aluminium production in July

According to data released by the International Aluminum Industry Association (IAI), the global output of raw aluminium (excluding China) in July was 2.205 million tons, an increase of 53,000 tons over June, and a decrease of 5,000 tons over the same period last year. China’s raw aluminium production in July is estimated at 3.05 million tons, and revised in June to 2.973 million tons.

Limited new capacity in the second half of the year

In terms of new capacity, it is estimated that in the second half of 2019, the new capacity will be 250,000 tons in Shanxi, 250,000 tons in Xingren, Guizhou, 200,000 tons in 100 mines, totaling 700,000 tons; Guangyuan and Shenhuo will put into operation in October-November.

Future market forecast

The trend of social inventory decline is good, the price of raw material alumina basically hit the bottom, and the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminium are good. It is expected that the recent high-level oscillation will be the main operation, and in the later period, the actual demand changes downstream will be paid attention to.