Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of business associations, the average domestic mainstream market price of 180 CST fuel oil was 4486.00 yuan/ton as of June 30, up or down from 4652.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month by -3.57%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: At present, the mainstream price of 180 CST fuel market in China is around 4400 yuan per ton. Fuel oil prices continued to fall this month as a whole.

Industry chain: According to the monitoring of business associations, Brent crude oil at the beginning of the month was $66.87 per barrel and at the end of the month was $66.55 per barrel, with a monthly increase of – 0.48%; WTI crude oil at the beginning of the month was $56.59 per barrel and at the end of the month was $59.43 per barrel, with a monthly increase of 5.02%. In June, U.S. crude oil stocks continued to decline, tensions between the United States and Iraq and optimistic expectations of Sino-US trade negotiations were the main factors leading the oil market in the near future. On Tuesday, June 25 (Tuesday), the weighted average price of Fukushi shale oil rose by 174 yuan/ton, with 12,000 tons of winning bid, 12,200 tons of bidding and 12,000 tons of volume. The tender base increased by 100 yuan/ton with 3356 yuan/ton winning interval of 3486 yuan/ton, and the next tender time was July 2.

According to the price monitoring of business associations, in June 2019, there were four kinds of commodities rising annually in the energy sector, of which more than 5% of the commodities rose, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities were WTI crude oil (5.02%), MTBE (2.46%) and coking coal (0.82%). There are 12 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 31.3% of the monitored commodities in the plate. The products with the first three declines are petroleum coke (-8.44%), liquefied natural gas (-7.64%) and naphtha (-7.09%). This month’s average rise and fall was -3.07%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts of business associations believe that the rise of international crude oil has driven the fuel oil market and increased downstream inquiries, but the shipping price is low, the overall market turnover is weak, the demand for shipping terminals is low, the shipment market is cold, the overall market turnover is weak, and downstream mostly hold a wait-and-see attitude. The fuel oil market is expected to stabilize in July, with some companies fluctuating slightly. The price range in July is expected to be between 4400 and 4700 yuan/ton.