Price Trend

Since March, the domestic acetone market has entered a fast downward channel. Take the market offer in East China as an example: at the beginning of this month, the acetone market in East China offered 3750 yuan/ton, and the domestic acetone market offer has broken 3000 yuan/ton so far. According to the monitoring of commodity data of business associations, petrochemical companies listed 3600 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week and 3000 yuan/ton at the weekend.

II. Analytical Review

Products: Domestic acetone market is weak, the market is difficult to improve, the current market performance is cold, the terminal just need to replenish. Up to now, the factory has maintained a high start-up rate. Only Shiyou of Yangzhou stopped on March 29, but it is not helpful to the current market with sufficient supply, so the supply side is sufficient. But Korean and Thai manufacturers have more maintenance plans in April, and imports are expected to decrease next month. At present, the main negotiation range of East China market is 2900 yuan/ton, the main negotiation range of Yanshan peripheral market and Shandong area is 3000 yuan/ton, and that of South China market is 3050 yuan/ton. Overall, market offers have fallen sharply this week.

Industry Chain: Pure Benzene: Pure Benzene: The recent overall decline in the pure benzene market, the port area of East China is still plagued by the pressure of shipment, the market supply is sufficient, prices continue to weaken, Sinopec listed price implementation of 4650 yuan/ton of spot remittance, Shandong refining prices declined, slightly mainstream shipments in 4200-4250 yuan/ton. Propylene: The propylene market in mid-late March is not hot. After a week or so of supply and demand stalemate, the price of propylene continued to fall, and the mainstream transaction was 6550-7000 yuan/ton by the end of the month. Previous polypropylene futures shocks, spot market boost is weak, it can be said that the market is difficult to change the current situation of the downturn. In April, the fluctuation of downstream and downstream installations in propylene market still exists, and the pressure of supply and demand will gradually decrease. The propylene market is expected to stop falling and recover. However, attention should be paid to the start-up and shutdown of refinery installations, the changes of downstream installations and the market mentality. Downstream terminal construction has been reduced. At present, purchasing is mainly needed. The downstream domestic BPA plant start-up rate is 81%; the acetone cyanohydrin MMA plant start-up rate is 78%; the MIBK start-up rate is 65%; this week the acetone isopropanol start-up rate is 48%. From the overall start-up rate, the performance of the demand side is slightly cold. Especially after the Yancheng Xiangshui incident, most downstream factories entered the stage of parking consolidation and self-checking, so there were insufficient purchasers of large orders entering the market.

3. Future Market Forecast

Oversupply of the market and inadequate terminal start-up are the main reasons for this year’s successive decline in the acetone market. Acetone analysts from business associations believe that the short-term acetone market is difficult to improve. Follow-up attention should be paid to plant maintenance and port inventory. The acetone market will continue to operate in a weak way. It is expected that the acetone market in East China will continue to decline and the market offer will fall to 2700-2900. Yuan / ton.