In March, the release of domestic agricultural demand is expected, and fertilizer manufacturers are also closely watching the slight changes in the market. So far, the “strong” rebound of nitrogen fertilizer urea market, such as Shandong, Hebei and other places, has led to a marked rise in prices, leading to the downstream measures are not as good as, but the wholesale prices of urea in Anhui, Ningxia, Yunnan and other basic layers are falling, the terminal for the next trend of urea there is greater concern. Is the desire of ammonium chloride, a small nitrogen fertilizer, to pull back the game with the momentum of urea slim? At present, the ammonium chloride market is in a dilemma of “three high and one low”: high start-up, high inventory, high terminal wait-and-see mood, low price of ammonium chloride.

At present, the domestic ammonium chloride market is weak, enterprises can generally guarantee the bottom of the pre-collection, buy-out prices are also intermittently lowered. The mainstream wet ammonium factory quotation in East China is about 500-520 yuan/ton, some 480-490 yuan/ton, and the mainstream dry ammonium factory price in Central China is about 680-710 yuan/ton, some can guarantee the bottom or single negotiation. The inventory of enterprises is increasing constantly, with a small amount of 10,000 tons and a large number of about 2.3 million tons. At present, the most difficult problem for enterprises is how to digest the inventory as soon as possible. Looking at March when the spring Market starts, whether the ammonium chloride factory can clear the inventory and whether the price can survive or not needs to consider the changes of various factors comprehensively.

Firstly, the difficulty of start-up of joint alkali enterprises has been significantly reduced. According to statistics, the overall industry start-up rate of domestic joint alkali enterprises is 77%. The ammonium chloride plant in North China is basically full-load production; in East China, except for individual plant overhaul, more than 80% of the other plants are started, but one of them has overhaul plan in March; in Central China, the ammonium chloride plant is basically full-load production; in addition, in the overhaul of a new plant, the ammonium chloride plant in Southwest China will operate normally in the later period without accident; Work normally, a gas head ammonium chloride enterprise plans to resume full load after March 15, all of which means that the start of ammonium chloride enterprises will maintain a high level and have a rebound trend. However, we need to consider whether the environmental inspection will reduce the start of ammonium chloride, and the planned maintenance of individual enterprises in some areas will temporarily ease the pressure of shipment, but the effect is very little.

Second, demand is moving slowly. First, compound fertilizer enterprises start low-level operation, even if the spring market is imminent, but the recovery progress is slow, coupled with a small number of small and medium-sized compound fertilizer enterprises or plans to resume production after March 15, the inventory pressure of large and medium-sized compound fertilizer enterprises has not decreased, downstream traders and terminal grassroots pre-reserve supply is more sufficient, the replenishment progress is slow, which directly affects the production progress of compound fertilizer enterprises, raw materials. Fertilizer procurement enthusiasm is not high, with the majority of picking. Secondly, the demand of extruded granular ammonium chloride enterprises is limited, and some extruded granular ammonium chloride enterprises in Northeast China have not resumed production. Some extruded granular ammonium chloride enterprises in Henan Province have quoted only 700-730 yuan/ton in the early period. Although there are new granular ammonium chloride plants in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, after all, the demand for raw powder ammonium is small, and at the same time, compound fertilizer is distributed to a certain extent. Third, the low price of agricultural products at the grass-roots level, high sales pressure, farmers’enthusiasm for planting land is not good, local planting structure may face adjustment, fertilizer habits may also change, the use of raw materials or reduce risks.

Thirdly, urea market fluctuates frequently, which has a great influence on ammonium chloride. This wave of urea warming is due to the appropriate purchasing in local agricultural market and environmental inspection. Some enterprises shift their production focus to liquid ammonia or parking maintenance. The supply of urea decreases. However, with the resumption of construction, the production of a small number of gas enterprises has been completed and the market is weakening, so the support for ammonium chloride has been reduced.

Finally, in general, even if demand starts after mid-March, the stock of ammonium chloride enterprises should be digested for a period of time, while the compound fertilizer enterprises own more stocks, slow production progress, and ammonium chloride enterprises themselves to maintain a high start, then inventory emptying is difficult.