Price Trend
According to the price monitoring of business associations, the domestic methanol market rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic methanol market price was 2,218 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week it was 2306 yuan/ton. The price rose by 3.97% in the week, falling by 14.40% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the adjustment range is relatively cautious. Among them, the overall operation of ports is weak under the influence of inventory increase and subsequent arrival concentration. Mainland markets adjust flexibly according to their own warehouse pressure, such as: Southern Shandong and Guanzhong shipments can still be lowered, maintaining an upward shift of 20-30 yuan/ton; North China and Central China are temporarily stabilizing. Based on the fact that the overall shipment of the production area is still acceptable this week, and the warehouse pressure of enterprises has eased; however, under the continuous fermentation of the tightening capacity at the end of the year, the sustained increase of freight or the reverse suppression of the increase of the production area, it is expected that the short-term stability of the Mainland will be greater, and the overall warehouse drainage of the market will still be obvious before the year.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: the weather turned cold, downstream slabs started to decline, the demand for formaldehyde was light; raw material methanol rebounded recently, cost support is still acceptable, Shandong formaldehyde finishing wait-and-see trend. Now Linyi is around 1050-1060 yuan/ton, Zibo and its surrounding areas around 1200-1300 yuan/ton. Acetic acid: The domestic glacial acetic acid market has fallen sharply. The downstream acetate, chloroacetic acid and vinyl acetate are not good, and the intention of pre-season stock is general. The local storage pressure of acetic acid enterprises is slightly obvious, and considering the Spring Festival holidays, the enterprises have a higher intention to arrange goods within a week, so the local real unit price is lower in a day. However, the recent performance of methanol raw material, acetic acid profits continue to compress, so acetic acid is expected to continue downward space is limited. Dimethyl ether: The market supply is still tight, the overall inventory of enterprises is controllable, the short-term mentality is still strong, and the short-term domestic mainstream price trend of dimethyl ether is still bullish.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperatives Viewpoint: On the positive side, the raw material side: although natural gas in the northern heating season has not been expected to be tense in recent years, the seasonal supply and demand situation from coal, natural gas and other energy sources still has some support; Freight: Freight has been rising continuously in some areas in recent years, coupled with rain and snow weather in some parts of the country, transportation constraints, transportation costs in some areas have increased; Inventory: by the holiday bureau. Due to the tight influence of shipping closure and storage capacity, the overall unloading speed is slower, the inventory of East China Port is reduced, and the arrival of ship cargo in Ningbo area is delayed due to the influence of earlier closure, and the saleable volume is greatly reduced. On the short side, the external market: the recent external market negotiations are still weak and prices remain low, especially in Europe, where prices continue to decline slightly, and the pace of delivery in Iran needs to be paid attention to; demand: the current domestic environmental protection constraints, coupled with the traditional off-season in winter, the downstream industry still shows poor start, the digestion of methanol at the raw material end is normal; supply: recent Inner Mongolia, Gansu and Shanxi Parking and load reduction devices in other places are mostly restored. The supply of methanol resources in some areas has been enlarged, and the supply of methanol in the main production areas has shown an increasing trend. Methanol analysts from business associations predict that crude oil is on a good trend in the near future, and the domestic methanol market is on the strong side in the short term. Later, we still need to pay attention to domestic methanol plant restart, downstream delivery, port inventory, freight situation and futures trend, and suggest cautious operation.