First, the price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the domestic methanol market has been going all the way up this week. The average domestic methanol market price was 3035 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and the weekend was 3133 yuan/ton. The weekly increase was 3.25%, and the price rose 15.13% over the same period of last year.

Second, the market analysis

Product: This week, the domestic methanol market continued its upward trend. Futures Masukura up, the market rallied sharply, coupled with the rise of the mainland, the port methanol market consolidation, it is expected that the performance will be acceptable in the short-term period; attention to port inventory and disk trend. The Mainland as a whole continued to move upwards and the trading atmosphere performed better. Temporary parking in a certain facility in Shandong, limited production in Shanxi, partial maintenance in the main producing areas, and expected, resource supply in some areas is intensified. Under the low inventory of the manufacturers and the need for downstream procurement, the market supply and demand performance is better. It is expected that the domestic methanol market will continue in the short term. strong. According to incomplete statistics, as of September 6, 2018, the total social inventory of methanol in the two major ports of East China and South China was 609,300 tons, with a weekly increase of 50,800 tons.

Industry chain: Formaldehyde: Domestic formaldehyde just needs to be shipped, and the overall atmosphere is normal. The raw material methanol continues to rise, and the cost is supported by the surface. Dimethyl ether: Some enterprises have tried their upside due to the unfavorable cost pressure, and the end-users have exhausted their inventory in the early stage. Under the influence of the company’s push-up stimulus, they have once again concentrated their purchases. The overall price of the domestic DME market has risen widely. Acetic acid: The domestic glacial acetic acid market is rising steadily. Henan enterprise stocks fell to a low level, so the offer was raised. The inventory of North China and East China enterprises are not high. Downstream buying just needed, and the price of acetic acid rose, and some of the contradictions were stronger. At present, the industry pays more attention to the maintenance of the later devices, and the mentality in the field is more cautious.

Others: Domestic methanol freight rates have been limited recently, and individual regions have risen and fallen. Among them, Inner Mongolia Northern Line to Lubei freight reference 210-290 yuan / ton, low end 20 yuan / ton, high-end 20 yuan / ton; South line to Lubei freight 200-250 yuan / ton, down 20-50 yuan / Tons; Shanxi to Lubei 120-150 yuan / ton; Guanzhong to Lubei reference 120-180 yuan / ton; Guanzhong to Shandong Southwest reference 190-200 yuan / ton; Xinjiang to Lubei 740-780 yuan / ton .

Third, the market outlook

Business community view: On the positive side, under the influence of environmental protection, Shanxi and North Jiangsu coke oven gas-making methanol projects are conspicuously limited. At present, Shanxi Linyi and other places have severely reduced production and production; Xuzhou has opened factories in the early stage, and the resources in the region are tight; Zhongyuan Ethylene and Jiangsu Syrbang MTO are running smoothly, raw materials are maintained in normal mining, and support is supported in the region and surrounding markets; some downstream mining increases, and methanol consumption increases; natural gas “guarantee” news, fourth quarter Domestic gas supply reduction is expected to decrease, and it will have a direct impact on the local arrival of goods in the region and East China; some manufacturers in the northwest and Shandong are expected to repair or repair the equipment, and the overall resource supply is tightened; futures Masukura up, late Sharply higher, boosting the spot market. In the negative, under the environmental supervision, Shandong, Hebei downstream plate, BDO and other construction started to maintain low levels, and later stored low expectations, demand for formaldehyde and other resources is mainly on demand; port inventory is still relatively high; the current methanol price is relatively high, There is a certain contradiction in the downstream. The methanol analyst of the business community expects that the domestic methanol market will continue to strengthen in the short term.