OPEC (OPEC) and non-OPEC oil producers will meet in Vienna on 25th, and it is widely expected that these “oil centers” will extend the implementation of the existing production agreement until the end of March next year. By this boost, the recent sharp rise in international oil prices.

However, some clues show that oil-producing countries cut production is still difficult to supply excess ills.

Overweight production is expected to boost oil prices in domestic refined oil prices up

Originally due to high inventory and worry about crude oil bulls in the last week ushered in a glimmer of hope. Turning from Saudi Arabia and Russia’s position, both sides agreed that the cut-off agreement should be extended for nine months to March 2018. Iraq, Venezuela and Qatar and other countries followed by support.

The cut-off agreement began at the OPEC meeting held on November 30 last year, and the parties decided to cut their daily crude oil output by 1.2 million barrels, which was the first time that the organization had decided to cut production in 2008. 11 non-OPEC oil-producing countries agreed to cut the daily production of 55.8 million barrels of oil.

Cut the agreement is expected to be extended to boost the recent trend of international oil prices. Last week, New York and London crude oil futures prices rose more than 5% in recent months, while Beijing time at 17:28 on the 22nd, NYMEX crude oil futures prices rose 0.72% to $ 50.69 a barrel, Brent oil prices in the Flat plate near the fluctuations.

In this context, a number of institutions are expected to limit the domestic refined oil this week will be up again.

Zhuo record information analyst Meng Peng told reporters that this cycle, OPEC extended production agreement and the possibility of a substantial decline in US crude oil stocks and other factors to boost the overall rise in international prices as a whole, which will lead to May 25 at 24 o’clock, the domestic Refined oil retail price ushered in the increase.

According to Zhuo record data monitoring model shows that as of May 19 closing, the domestic 7th working day crude oil rate of change closed at 2.75%, the corresponding increase in refined oil price limit of 95 yuan / ton. Due to distance adjustment window is still open 3 working days, and the recent sharp decline in crude oil prices are unlikely, so at 25:00 on May 25, the domestic refined oil retail price will usher in the increase, and eventually raised Amplitude or reach 120 yuan / ton or so.

Longzhong Petrochemical Network pointed out that as of May 19 of the comprehensive rate of change in crude oil was 3.19%, is expected to domestic retail price of refined oil corresponding increase of 100 yuan / ton.

Global to inventory pace slowed crude oil bulls “enemies” more

Despite the profit brought about by the excitement of the market. However, some clues show that crude bulls still need to face many “enemies”. Bear the brunt of the American manufacturers.

OPEC released this month in the oil market monthly report pointed out that the continued growth of US oil production on the crude oil market supply and demand balance pressure, while affecting international oil prices to pick up. Energy service company Baker Hughes data show that as of May 19 of the week, the US drillers to increase the eight active rig, has been the first 18 weeks to increase, the duration of the second longest ever. The total number of active rigs is the largest since April 2015.

In addition to the United States, the Wall Street Journal noted that the rise in Canadian and Brazilian oil production and the small increase in Norwegian production have not yet attracted the attention of some oil traders. According to the media for a survey of five oil research institutions and investment banks, excluding the United States and OPEC led the 24-nation alliance, the top five oil-producing countries may increase the daily output of about 30 million barrels.

Reuters found that since OPEC began to cut production in January this year, from Houston to Singapore and other regions of the oil traders began to empty a large number of oil in the tank. However, many of these storage tanks are now recovering from stocks, or stocks falling faster than investors and oil companies expected. From Asia’s Malacca Strait, to the ports of the Nordic and Gulf of Mexico, global oil-to-stocking has slowed down or even reversed.

Zhongyu information analyst Xu Lei told reporters that the short term, the overall upward trend in international crude oil does not change, but the range is limited, the domestic refined oil market to weak operating mainly downstream demand boost, the Dragon Boat Festival finished domestic market stability Narrow in the narrow, in some areas were mixed, to refining the basic bottom of diesel, it is recommended that domestic traders to recover more carefully.