According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate has been on a downward trend recently. As of March 23, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s battery grade lithium carbonate was 142000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.4% compared to the same period last week (March 16), a decrease of 2% month on month, and an increase of 86% year-on-year.
Multiple pressure resonance downward
The supply side has a significant increase in volume, and the sufficient supply of goods has dragged down the price upward
The core reason for the current decline in lithium carbonate prices is that supply growth far exceeds the speed of demand digestion, and the supply-demand pattern is clearly loose. Recently, overseas lithium salts have been concentrated in Hong Kong, and domestic smelting enterprises have gradually resumed production. Early maintenance equipment has been restarted one after another, and the market’s available supply of goods continues to increase, resulting in continuous pressure on the supply side.
Downstream demand recovery is weak, and essential demand is difficult to support high levels
The weak demand side is an important reason for the pressure on lithium carbonate. The growth rate of new energy vehicle sales has slowed down, and power battery companies are cautious in their production plans. Positive electrode material companies mainly rely on on-demand procurement and low-level replenishment, lacking the willingness to concentrate on stocking.
The energy storage sector has not yet formed a significant driving force for lithium battery demand, and downstream markets have a strong wait-and-see attitude, with a prominent mentality of “buying up instead of buying down”, resulting in overall light trading volume. Insufficient support from the demand side makes it difficult for lithium carbonate prices to maintain high levels and continue to adjust downwards.
Macro sentiment and capital game exacerbate short-term decline
At the macro level, the strengthening of the US dollar index has suppressed the overall valuation of commodities, and there has been a significant diversion of funds from the new energy sector. Part of the funds profited and left, while the bearish power increased, which significantly suppressed lithium carbonate futures.
The profit taking gains accumulated from the previous slight rebound were concentrated and cashed out after the sentiment weakened, resulting in a simultaneous weakening of futures and spot prices, further amplifying the decline in this round.
The data analyst of Business Society’s lithium carbonate believes that the current situation of loose supply of lithium carbonate is difficult to change in the short term, and the progress of destocking is still the key factor leading the price trend. If the demand for downstream power batteries and new energy vehicles continues to be weak, lithium prices may further explore support, and specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.